Friday, April 30, 2021
Lower to end the week and the month as the Dow fell 185 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving sideways. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over but remain overbought. The market is still in a pattern of indecision in my view. We are about to enter a period of weak seasonality for stocks as the sell in May and go away crowd will get some air time. The potential double top is still there for the NASDAQ along with an elongated head and shoulders potential top for the Russell 2000. I'd still like to see some kind of blow off advance for stocks to get short but the market rarely cooperates with your best laid plans. We'll see how the beginning of May rolls out. GE was off a few cents on average volume. Bollinger bands still tight here. Gold was off five bucks as the US dollar was higher. Rates were slightly lower. The XAU fell 2 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume remains on the light side. Getting short term oversold now for GDX. I will consider the GDX May calls over the weekend. However the weekly candlestick chart for GDX has a bearish topping pattern on it after this weeks price action. That is something to consider as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators are now moving up. I still think the VIX could go either way here but it is now at the top of its Bollinger bands. If it falls back down from here perhaps we'll get the rally I'd like to see in order to try the May SPY puts. We're still below the 50 day moving average here and the important level of 20. Plenty of things to think about over the weekend while going over all the charts. Europe and Asia generally ended todays session in the red. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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