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Friday, April 09, 2021

Up, up and away as the Dow climbed 298 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. We witnessed a buying spree in the final hour. New all time highs on many indices with no overhead resistance. Remaining overbought on all time frames. This is beginning to feel like a runaway train or the speculative upside blowoff that I mentioned before. I continue to believe that things will run up into the April option expiration in a week. After that, who knows? There are no sellers at the moment but the light volume isn't something not to be concerned about. Not sure how high we'll go here but enjoy the ride. GE was up over 1/8 and volume picked up a little. Gold dropped but came off of the worst levels on the day. The June futures lost a dozen. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares held up rather well as the XAU shed 1/2, while GDX was flat. Volume was very light. The gold shares continue to outperform the precious metal and that is a plus. I did sell my GDX April calls but my exit wasn't very good. Still short term overbought for GDX but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. I did not want to take the risk of holding them into next week. The profit was 240%. The weekly chart for GDX remains bullish and I'll wait for it to get short term oversold and then perhaps try the calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and the oversold technical condition here remains the same. Comfortably below the 20 level on the VIX means the rally can last. But the market is beginning to feel a little frothy and going straight up never ends well. Still, you can't argue with price and stocks are being bid up. We'll see how things go next week. Plenty of charts to check this weekend. Asia was mixed again with Europe generally higher to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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