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Thursday, April 22, 2021

Turnaround Thursday as we were heading up and then news of a higher capital gains tax rate roiled the markets. The Dow fell 321 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The market is now trying to factor in exactly what kind of taxes it can expect to pay for whatever is next on the governments agenda. Needless to say that higher taxes on capital gains won't be a plus for stock investors. The details have yet to be determined but just the notion of higher taxes drove things lower today. It still has the feel of just a consolidation before moving higher but we'll see. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Tomorrow could give us a clue if we indeed continue lower. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold dropped ten bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher. Rates were little changed. The XAU lost 3 1/4, while GDX fell almost 2/3. Volume was light. Still overbought for the gold shares on a short term basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped back up which was interesting considering yesterdays drop. This still puts some more selling into play if it continues higher tomorrow. There is some room on the short term indicators to move higher into overbought territory. I think that the 20 level will contain any further rise in this indicator. If we move above there I might have to change my outlook. The NASDAQ along with the Russell are still hanging in there. The Bollinger bands on the Russell 2000 have contracted to the point where a major move one way or the other is coming. I'd keep an eye on that for clues as to what's about to happen here. With all the money sloshing around I wouldn't expect a huge decline but we'll let the market tell us where it wants to go. Europe and Asia finished higher last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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