Monday, April 05, 2021
The market took off to the upside as the Dow gained 374 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Stronger than expected job creation is the excuse for the rally. New all time highs in many of the major stock indices but not the small stocks yet. No overhead resistance and plenty of cash to go around. I'll look for the rally to continue into the April option expiration. Short term overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. GE was up over 1/8 but the volume was pretty light. Gold finished little changed on the June futures despite a drop in the US dollar. The strong jobs report may have had something to do with that. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The short term rally in the gold shares look like it could take a rest here. My GDX April calls are still showing a profit. I'm inclined to hold on to this trade for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a little today and that doesn't jibe with a market up over 300 points. Not sure what it means going forward. We're still well below the 20 level though and that supports higher prices going forward. Some econmic data due out this week and the Fed chairman will be speaking on Thursday. Interest rates ticked up higher today but it didn't affect the stock market this time. I'm still bullish for now but if we continue going straight up it could be the speculative blow off that leads to a decent decline. Hasn't happened yet but I'll be keeping an eye on things as usual. A lot of overseas markets were closed last night but what were open moved higher. We'll see if they follow todays US rally tonight.
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