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Monday, April 19, 2021

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 123 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall now. The negative price action that we saw today was the opposite of Fridays expiration. That usually happens on the Monday after expiration either way. The NASDAQ led the way lower. I'm not expecting a downturn here and we'll probably hit new all time highs again later in the week. That's my best guess at the moment. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold lost about ten bucks on the June contract and the US dollar was lower as well. Interest rates went up slightly. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was light. We're still overbought on the gold shares. With an extra week in the May option cycle, there's plenty of time to let a long side trade work itself into the picture here. I am looking at the GDX May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped up today but finished well off of the highs for the session. We are still oversold here on a short and medium term basis. For the bears out there, I'd keep an eye on the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. The former may be forming a double top on the daily basis chart. The latter perhaps a complex head and shoulders top. It's just something to keep an eye on. As long as the summation index keeps moving higher, the bulls are in charge. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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