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Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Once again a mixed picture on wall street as the Dow fell 66 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. The S&P 500 remains short and medium term overbought. It reached a new all time high today. I think that we are in the late stages of this rally now though. Things will probably trend up into the option expiration but after that, I don't think it will be so easy. Indicators are getting stretched to the point of breaking for the S&P. Going straight up the upper Bollinger band and moving further away from the 50 day moving average never ends well. I'm looking at the May SPY puts. GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold found a bid today and bounced back a dozen on the futures. Higher US inflation data was the reason given. The US dollar dropped and so did interest rates which didn't really fit with higher inflation. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX gained almost 2/3. Volume was light. I'm looking at the GDX May calls if we get back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that coincides with the overall market but not the Dow. Oversold here for so long but that is a big plus for the bulls. The rally will live on as long as the VIX remains below 20. Tomorrow we'll get the Feds beige book and we'll see if we get some kind of market reaction to that. Looks like I'll simply remain on the sidelines for the rest of this week. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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