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Friday, April 16, 2021

We closed the week on a high note as the Dow gained 164 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive and the summation index continues higher. More new all time highs abound as the market has no sellers. Extended, overbought and whatever else you want to call it but the market keeps chugging along. Not sure how much longer it will go on like this but it's usually longer than you think. The S&P 500 is getting pretty far away from its 50 day and 50 week moving averages but that doesn't mean it can't continue. Not sure what to look for here, perhaps a high volume blow off top kind of day. However trying to guess when that will happen is probably a losing game. GE was off around 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold was up about a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower. Rates ticked up a little today. The XAU rose a point, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was light. GDX is right at the long term down trend line that has been in effect for months. Overbought short term now here as well. Some sideways to lower price action here would set us up for the May GDX calls in a perfect world. We're rolling into the May option cycle that has an extra week in it. The premiums are high as expected for now. However the May GDX calls appear to be the next trade in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower yet again today and remains very oversold. This indicator is suggesting that the rally will live on though. We're in earnings season and the comparisons should be looking pretty good for most companies after the beginning of the pandemic at this time last year. We'll have to wait and see if the sell in May crowd shows up this year. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a near term game plan. Europe and Asia were higher as money is finding a home in stocks around the world. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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