It felt like an summer Monday and that's how we traded as the Dow fell 107 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is in a sideways trend. The NASDAQ managed to post a small gain. The S&P 500 was slightly lower and remains short term overbought. I did place an order for some SPY August puts but wasn't filled. I may try again tomorrow ahead of Wednesdays and Thursdays inflation reports. However there's also a chance that we simply remain range bound here with no big movement to make trading the options worthwhile. But that's just an observation or more likely a guess, nobody can predict the future. Technically the S&P is overbought, staying that way and there's not a lot of volume. Gold continued lower as it sold off in the overseas markets overnight. The futures finished with a loss of over thirty bucks. Gold traded below $1700 for a time overnight. Interest rates continued higher as did the US dollar. The XAU fell 3 3/4, while GDX dropped 3/4. Volume was good to the downside once again. I'm now looking at the October GDX calls for the next gold share trade. But there is no rush as the 50 day moving average has just crossed the 200 day for GDX to the downside. I'm going to try and wait for the 31 level before attempting something here. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today as the market did have a sharp drop after it opened. It remains oversold. I suppose I'll hope for some buying in the market tomorrow in order to get a decent fill on the SPY August puts ahead of Wednesday. I'm pretty sure that it is a trade that I'd like to do. We'll see how it goes. Asia was higher and Europe mixed with very little change on the closing indices. Perhaps things will pick up on Tuesday but I wouldn't be surprised if it's just more of the same summer slumber.

Unemployment numbers came in strong but we had a mixed market as the Dow gained 144 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up again but remains in a sideways channel. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the red. The S&P 500 closed at another new all time high and remains short term overbought. I'm thinking that if we stay higher on Monday or Tuesday, I'm going to try the SPY August puts. That's what I've got in mind right now but I'll look things over again on the weekend. I'm also considering just staying on the sidelines because the volume is pretty light and many players just aren't at their desks. The S&P is pretty much going sideways lately as well. Gold got crushed today as the futures fell over forty bucks to the near term support. The US dollar was higher on the jobs report. Interest rates jumped up on the strong employment numbers. The XAU fell 3 points, while GDX dropped a point. Volume was good to the downside although the price drop in the gold shares could have been worse. GDX is also at its near term support but at this rate it isn't going to hold. If it drops to the 31 level, that may be the time to try the September calls. I'm certainly glad that I remained patient with that idea for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and broke below its 50 day moving average. This implies some more rally for stocks. Short term oversold and staying that way for the VIX. This is another reason to be patient for the SPY puts and maybe just forget about them in this option cycle. But we'll see. I'll go over the scenarios again this weekend and take it from there. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the first week of August. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Today it was back to the upside as the Dow gained 271 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index, like the stock market, can't make up its mind which way to go. It remains in a sideways trend. With such a nice gain in the stock market today, my thinking is that we'll move even higher tomorrow on the jobs report. That's my guess at the moment. The S&P 500 closed at another new all time high. It remains short term overbought. If we do trend higher into early next week, I may try the SPY August puts. However if the breakout from the recent sideways consolidation takes off we could see an upside blow off. I will try and let the market tell us what to do. Gold dropped around eight bucks on the December contract. Interest rates were higher and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU fell two points while GDX shed 1/2. Volume remains light. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. I'm still looking at the September calls here but will wait for GDX to get oversold before trying any options. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed at the 50 day moving average. Another day like today and it will make it back below there. It did close below the mid Bollinger band. Oversold here to be sure but in uptrends it can stay that way. I think tomorrows price movement in the market will tell us a lot. Still trying to remain patient for now. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the employment report tomorrow morning.

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 323 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to roll over. The Dow was the under performer today as the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The S&P was lower today as it could not build on yesterdays gains. It remains short term overbought on some of the technical indicators. I still favor the SPY August puts but really don't want to purchase them until after the employment report on Friday. The TRAN was pretty weak today as well so it looks like perhaps the market is ready to take a dip in the summer. But we all know that the market will go where it wants. Gold was up a couple bucks today as interest rates finished mixed. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU was off around 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume is still light here. The gold shares followed the market lower today. This is why I prefer to wait to get some of the GDX September calls. If the market goes into a summer swoon here, most likely the gold shares will follow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today and that doesn't fit with a down 300 market. Not sure what to make of it. Still above the 50 day moving average here. Only a couple of trading days left this week with Friday most likely being the most important. Obviously the market reaction to the numbers is what we'll be watching. Still trying my best to remain patient here. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got an earnings rally today as the Dow climbed 278 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways but is trying to turn back up. The market has the feel of wanting to go higher in the near term and I'm not going to stand in the way. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high today. The other major indices are close to new highs as well. Perhaps this will usher in a blow off top that I've been looking to happen for what seems like months now. I'm still tracking the SPY August puts but purchasing them would be days away or early next week. The SPY remains short term overbought. The recent sideways movement here appears to be a consolidation with higher prices now coming. Of course that could all change tomorrow but I don't think it will. Gold was off a few bucks today. The US dollar along with interest rates finished little changed. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/3. Volume remains light. The gold shares continue to outperform and that is a plus. The problem for me here is that some of the short term technical indicators for GDX are already overbought. I really do not want to chase this move now. However I cannot deny the gold share strength and what it implies going forward. Never easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with todays rally. It remains above the 50 day moving average. Oversold on the short term indicators here but not completely so. A break below the 50 day would really encourage the bulls in my view. I'm remaining patient for now since there is still plenty of time left in the August option cycle. We also have the jobs report to get through on Friday. Europe and Asia finished mixed. We'll see if we get any follow through upside tomorrow.

Lower to begin the month of August and the week as the Dow fell 97 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving sideways. It was a one day reversal to the downside as we opened with a gap to the upside only to lose ground for the rest of the session. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over. The NASDAQ finished in the black though. I'm still considering the SPY August puts if we see some upside before Fridays jobs report. I'm hoping that the market holds up until then. GE has now completed its reverse stock split. I won't be reporting on it anymore after an 8 for 1 reverse split. Gold finished the day about unchanged despite a drop in interest rates. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU was off 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/8. Volume was pretty light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are overbought. I'm trying to remain patient here when it comes to purchasing the September calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and remains above its 50 day moving average. The mid-range Bollinger band is also providing support and if that continues a decent rise in the VIX could be coming soon. That would imply lower stock prices. I am hoping for one more run up in stocks in order to purchase some August puts but we know that the market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The month ended with a thud as the Dow fell 149 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. We opened with a gap lower and were negative for the remainder of the session. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. The NASDAQ was the weakest of the major indices overall. I'm still trying to figure out what's going on here. I still think that we're building a top here but my ideas haven't been exactly accurate lately. I guess we'll see what happens in the beginning of next week and go from there. GE was off 1/3 on light volume. Gold dropped $15 today despite a drop in interest rates. The US dollar had a bounce higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares continue to outperform the metal itself and that's bullish going forward. I'm still considering the GDX calls but now attempting to decide whether to try the August or September contracts. It also may be too late for this trade as well since the technical indicators have already moved up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did finish off of its early elevated levels. Not sure what is next for the VIX here. We'll be starting the month of August on Monday and still have three weeks left in this option cycle. I'll try and figure out something while going over the charts this weekend. Europe and Asia were lower to end the week. No summer doldrums so far for this year. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

GDP came in weaker than expected and the Dow rallied 153 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. This will turn the summation index back up. It appears that my ideas about lower stock prices have been incorrect as the market has proven me wrong once again. The S&P 500 does remain short term overbought. At this point I'm going to let tomorrow go by and try again for some kind of profitable idea next week. There's still plenty of time in the August option cycle. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light. Gold had a good session for the bulls as the futures climbed over twenty bucks on the December contract. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU was up 3 7/8, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was good to the upside and the gold shares could be at the beginning of a rally here. We saw the signs earlier when the gold shares started to outperform gold. Unfortunately I wasn't paying enough attention as the GDX August calls seem to be the proper play now in retrospect. We still may get a chance here if GDX falls back to fill the gap that it created today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but still remains above its 50 day moving average. So there is still the potential for that area to hold and the market to move lower in the near term. However I'm beginning to think that may not be the case. With the end of the month tomorrow anything goes though. I'm looking to regroup over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

Back and forth for most of the day with the Dow finishing with a loss of 127 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still drifting lower. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ up over 100 points. The S&P 500 finished flat. It was going to be a positve day for the S&P but it dropped in the final hour. The Fed had no surprises. I'm still leaning towards the SPY August puts on strength tomorrow. GE was up a nickel on average volume. Gold was up almost $10 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. It is possible that a rally in the gold shares is starting now. The short term indicators have turned back up. Perhaps I've waited too long to try the GDX september calls but we'll see where we go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and did bounce off of its 50 day moving average alond with the mid Bollinger band. Whether or not that support holds will probably tell us where the market is going to go. If the VIX breaks through there, the rally will continue. If not, we'll see some more downside. I'm still leaning bearish here for the stock market but the strong NASDAQ says otherwise. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows GDP report and go from there. Asia was mixed again and Europe was higher. We'll keep an eye on tonight headlines.

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 85 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading back down. The market opened with a gap down and sold off for the first half of the session. It them made a comeback to cut the loss in half. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought here. I'm still thinking about getting some SPY August puts on Thursday if things hold up until then. We'll get the Fed tomorrow and nothing new is expected there. But you never know. Earnings continue to pour in and have been positve so far for the most part. GE bounced around a lot today and finished with a gain over 1/8 on heavy volume. The reverse stock split will go in effect soon and I will probably discontinue following GE after that. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures today. The US dollar along with interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume. I'm trying to wait to purchase some GDX September calls here. We are more oversold than overbought on the short term indicators. However if my thesis of lower stock prices takes hold, the gold shares will probably fall with it. I deally I'd like to get long GDX if it heads to the 31 level. That may just be wishful thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and briefly made it over the 20 level. A move here back down to the 50 day moving average and mid Bollinger band line will be my cue to purcahse the SPY August puts. In a perfect world this would happen on Thursday morning. For now we'll just deal with the Fed tomorrow and go from there. Asia was mixed again and Europe lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Drifting higher as the Dow gained 83 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down but is trying to turn around again. Still hugging the upper Bollinger band for the daily S&P 500 chart. Short term overbought here. My plan for now is to wait until the GDP report on Thursday to attempt to get some SPY puts. That will get the Fed out of the way on Wednesday. We also have big tech earnings reports due out tomorrow. My hope is that the rise continues and last piece of news will be a robust GDP for the second quarter on Thursday. The market rarely cooperates. New all time highs all around today for the majoe stock indices. GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume. Gold fell four bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower while interest rates were little changed. The XAU gained 2 1/2 and GDX was up over 1/3. Volume was light. Once again the gold shares outperformed gold itself and that is bullish. I am still considering the GDX September calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX was up today and closed on its 50 day moving averge. That doesn't fit with an up market. Short term oversold for the VIX here but not completely yet. Not sure how to read this indicator at the moment. Plenty of market moving potential this week with the Fed and economic data. We've also got the end of the month on tap. Plenty of time to go in the August option cycle. Europe and Asia were mixed overngiht. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Powering ahead to new all time highs in many of the major stock indices. The Dow gained 238 points to close above the 35000 level for the first time. The advance/declines were positive and volume was average. Monday is all but forgotten and clearly in the rear view mirror. I will have to rethink my bearish posture over the weekend as I did not expect the market to simply turn around and press on to new all time highs. The S&P 500 is now short term overbought but there is no overhead resistance. The NASDAQ remains a leader and that's a positive. Perhaps this will usher in the blow off top that I've mentioned before. Earnings are driving things at the moment and so far they've been better than expected for the most part. GE was flat and the volume was light. Gold was off five bucks or so on the futures. Interest rates were slightly higher and the US dollar finished the day little changed. The XAU fell almost a point, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was pretty light. No love for the gold shares as they remain oversold. I am still looking at the September GDX calls there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower as it is moving towards short term oversold. It is now midway between the Bollinger bands. The VIX remains below 20 and appears to be headed back down to the 15 level. Plenty of work to do this weekend as I try and figure out my next trade. This weeks reversal in stocks cannot be ignored. Certainly we haven't seen the usual summer slowdown. There's still plenty of time in the August option cycle. Hopefully I'll come up with a profitable idea. Asia was higher with the exception of the Hang Seng. Europe was up as well. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A day of hanging around as the Dow rose 25 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The bounce appears to be running out of steam. Sideways from here for a couple of days would set us up to try the SPY August puts. However the premiums on the options are still rather high. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are not completely overbought just yet. At this point I'll wait until next week before deciding what to do. GE lost over 1/3 on light volume. Gold added four bucks on the futures. Interest rates ticked lower while the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU lost over a point, while GDX shed twenty cents. Volume was light. The gold shares are going sideways as they remain short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down slightly as we wait to see what happens there. I still would find it hard to believe that we're heading to new all time highs again but the NASDAQ has been leading the way back up so I suppose anything's possible. We'll see how the week closes out. Europe and Asia were generally higher. On to Friday.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 286 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. Earnings are driving things higher for now as Monday seems like it's far in the past. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned around. I'm still not convinced that we will simply move on to new all time highs here but I could be wrong. I'm hoping that we'll build some kind of top here in the next few days that will give us a chance to purchase the SPY August puts. Remaining patient for now. GE was up over 1/3 on better than average volume. It's made up over a buck in the past two sessions. Gold fell five bucks on the August contract. The US dollar was slightly lower today and interest rates continued to move higher. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was light. The gold shares outperformed gold for a change and we haven't seen that in a while. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again and closed below its 50 day moving average. Back below 20 now on the VIX with the short term indicators pointing lower. The VIX is implying that the bounce has more to go. That is entirely possible but I will still wait to see if the summation index actually turns around. Hasn't happened yet. However I will admit that there still seems to be plenty of money to go around with the continued easy Fed policy. Europe and Asia gained ground overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We got a bounce and then some as the Dow gained 550 points on better than average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. The McClellan oscillator was at an extreme yesterday and a bounce was due. Is it possible that the decline is over? Yes but I doubt it. The S&P 500 did bounce off of its 50 day moving average again. That has been the case since this rally began nine months ago. So it is possible that the market keeps on chugging forward. My thinking is that we'll build more of a top here hopefully. That would give me some time to purchase the SPY August puts at a better price. The short term techncial indicators for the S&P have turned or are starting to turn around. A weak volume move higher from here would be the ideal scenario. There is so much time in the August options that you don't have to be in a hurry to do anything. GE bounced back almost 3/4 on good volume. Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher. Interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Still no interest in owning the gold shares. NEM reports earnings on Thursday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and made it back down below the 20 level today. Maybe it stays below 20 and maybe the market goes higher from here. However we can't trade on maybes. I think that we will have to see what happens when the McClellan oscillator makes it back up to the zero line. If it goes through that line and turns the summation index back up, then I'd say the decline is done for now. But if it gets back to the zero line and stalls that will be the time to purchase those SPY August puts. That's my thinking at the moment. Subject to change as we move along in time and the market reveals where it is going. It looks like no summer doldrums this year. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Down we go as the Dow fell 725 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The Dow was off over 900 during the session. Return of the pandemic fears is the excuse for todays price action. But the breadth had been weak as we were moving up and the short term techncial indicators had already rolled over. The sell off on the first day of the new option cycle has inflated the premiums even more. The extra week in the August cycle doesn't help with the pricing either. The McClellan oscillator is pretty oversold here so a bounce should be coming soon. The S&P 500 did manage to hold on to the 50 day moving average here. However I'm still a believer in the SPY puts here and will be looking to purchase some on a bounce. Obviously the ideal time to buy has passed but that doesn't mean there won't still be some money to be made on the short side going forward. The NASDAQ has held up pretty well so far so perhaps the decline will not be severe. GE was off over 1/2 on heavy volume. Gold was off a few bucks and did come up from the prices lows on the day. The US dollar was up slightly but interest rates had a big drop. The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was good again to the downside here. I am looking at the GDX September calls. The problem here being that if the market does continue to fall, the gold shares will most likely follow. But if GDX gets completely oversold on the daily chart I will give this idea a try. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up above 25 today and did finish above its 200 day moving average. Not completely overbought yet so there might be a bit more downside before we see a bounce for stocks. No summer doldrums now in the stock market. Let's hope we see some kind of huge bounce soon as that will be the opportunity we're now looking for. Europe and Asia were lower as liquidation is now happening around the globe. They all pile in and they all pile out. We'll keep an eye on tonights ativities.

Sellers took over on Friday as the Dow fell 300 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now moved lower and it is not overbought anymore. I do think that this is the beginning of some type of down trend. How long and how far is the question. I'm hoping for some kind of move back up in order to purchase some SPY August puts. But it could already be too late. We will have to see how things go next week. GE was off almost 1/4 but the volume was light. Gold fell about twenty bucks as both rates and the US dollar were slightly higher. The XAU dropped almost 5 points, while GDX shed over a point. Volume picked up to the downside. After todays price action it appears the move coming due to the contracting Bollinger bands for GDX will be to the downside. But we will wait and see if there is any follow through next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and closed above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are now pointing up and that implies lower stock prices unless we see a turnaround on Monday. So it appears that we are a potentially inportant inflection point for the market at this time. I do think that we will head lower. I just don't know how far and how fast. I also could be wrong and that stocks take off to the upside from here on the coming earnings reports. But I really don't think that will be the case. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were generally lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market continues to send mixed signals as the Dow rose 53 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Overall stocks lost ground today with the NASDAQ leading the way down. The market is trying to figure out what to do here. The least case scenario in my mind would be for some type of sustained rally from here but who knows? The S&P 500 remains overbought but the short term technical indicators have now rolled over. The summation index has been heading lower for a while now but we haven't really seen any drop in price. Not sure exactly what that implies. I'm still looking at the SPY August puts. GE was off a nickel on light volume. Gold was up a buck on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continued to decline. The XAU was up a point and GDX up 1/4. Volume was pretty light. The Bollinger bands for GDX are contracting to the point that a major move for this index is in the offing. As usual the question of which way is the issue. I am starting to take a closer look here though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a gain in the Dow but that does fit the overall market decline. Still around mid-range for the indicators here so it could go either way. We haven't seen the usual positive market bias that is usually associated with option expiration week this time around. We will also be rolling into the August option cycle on Monday that has an extra week in it. Premiums there remain elevated. Patience for now. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to a mixed bag as the Dow rose 44 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. Inflation data was higher than expected again today. Also the Fed chairman began his testimony on capital hill today. Will finish tomorrow. The market just bounced around today. The NASDAQ finished lower. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. So far this week has been a sideways event with only a couple of days left. I'm still inclined to let this week pass and go from there. GE was off eight cents and the volume was light. Gold found some interest today as the futures gained twenty bucks. Both interest rates and the US dollar were lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares have not kept up with the price of the precious metal lately and that is not bullish. I'm looking at the longer term GDX calls but in no hurry to purchase. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. I'm not getting any kind of signal here now one way or the other. The VIX hasn't been giving me any market direction clues lately or I haven't been able to figure them out. I'm still a believer in lower stock prices for the August option cycle. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Some selling today as the Dow fell 107 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. The inflation data was higher than expected and the market shrugged it off early in the session. However as the day wore on equities moved lower. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500 but there is now a possible negative divergence on the daily RSI. The breadth lately hasn't really supported the move higher in my opinion. We are closer to the end of this rally in my mind. It is just a matter of positioning for the inevitable decline. The August SPY put premiums are still pretty high but that's where my focus will be. GE was off almost 1/4 on light volume. Gold bounced around today and finished up a couple of bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX was up over 1/3 on average volume. The gold shares pulled back from their highs of the session, following the overall market. Maybe if they get oversold again I'll consider trading the calls there but the lack of recent volume is a concern. Plus if I'm correct about a market drop the gold shares will probably go with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits a lower market. Short term technical indicators here remain mid-range. The VIX seems to be indicating that things could go either way here. We'll get more inflation data out tomorrow. Then the Fed chairman in front of Congress to close out the week. I'm remaining on the sidelines for now. Asia was higher and Europe close to finishing unchanged overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

New all time highs all around as the Dow gained 128 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around again. Short term overbought, staying that way and no overhead resistance. Like a broken record. Option expiration week is upon us and I still believe that things will run up into Friday. I could be wrong. I'm already looking at the SPY August puts. I'd like to see a top that takes a little time to build but a blow off to the upside is possible as well. The market will not remain overbought forever. GE was off a nickel on average volume. Gold dropped a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell two points, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was little changed and the short term indicators have stalled. It looks like the VIX could go either way here. Inflation data due out in the next couple of days followed by the Fed chief in Washington to speak before Congress on Thursday and Friday. So there are potential market moving episodes to come. I won't be trying any of the short term July option trades this week if I can help it. Europe and Asia were higher as the money flow into stocks continues around the world. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Volatility has made a return as the Dow stormed back to the upside today with a 448 point gain on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower. A new all time high close for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought and staying that way. There's no news to account for todays rise but the light volume is a warning sign in my book. I think that we are closer to the end of this bull rally than the beginning. Maybe we'll get a blow off top and maybe we won't. At the least I think things will hold up until the expiration next Friday. After that I'll be looking for the SPY August puts. GE was up over 1/4 but the volume was light. Gold rose $6 on the August contract. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. Mixed messages there. The XAU gained 3 1/3, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was light. The gold shares did outperform gold today though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and the short term indicators here have turned back down. This implies higher stock prices going forward but this indicator hasn't been reliable lately. Back down away from the 20 area on the VIX and that is bullish. It is now just a matter of waiting next week out and taking things from there. An extra week in the August option cycle means that there's no hurry to do anything. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The summer doldrums took a day off today as the Dow fell 260 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We opened with a gap lower and the Dow was off 550 points during the session. There wasn't any news to spark the sell off but perhaps the extreme overbought conditions finally came home to roost. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought but the indicators have turned back down for now. I don't think that today is the beginning of a sustained move down but I could be wrong. Perhaps we're at the start of building a top for the market. I still think that things will be held up until the July option expiration has passed. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold finished little changed on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued their decline. The XAU lost over 4 1/2, while GDX was off by 7/8. Volume was light. The gold shares followed the overall market lower. They are underperforming the price of gold and that's not a good sign for the bulls here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up today and was above the important 20 level today before pulling back. The short term technical indicators here have now turned around and are solidly pointing higher which would imply lower stock prices going forward. Obviously this indicator hasn't been giving any reliable signals in the past couple of days. Or perhaps my take on what is going on with the VIX is wrong. The TRAN got slammed today. It's been heading lower for a couple of months. Maybe this index is telling the story. However it is hard for me to get real bearish when the NASDAQ continues to make higher highs. I'm still in the mindset of waiting out the rest of the July option cycle before putting on the next trade. August options will have an extra week in them though. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. It appears that the markets know something that we do not. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Just another summer day as the Dow gained 104 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending lower. New all time highs for the S&P 500 as it remains overbought on the short and medium term indicators. Nothing's changed as we still look for higher prices heading into next weeks July option expiration. We'll see how things go after that. GE was up a few cents on lighter volume. Gold was up $7 on the August futures contract. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continue to fall. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. There's still no interest in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished off of its highs again today and was slightly lower. Still below the 50 day moving average here and that is a positive for stocks going forward. I get the feeling we will drift higher for the next week or so and then reassess the situation. The market has tried to sell off for a couple of days now without success so it looks like higher prices are coming despite the continued overbought technical conditions. Not exactly the summar doldrums but there probabaly won't be any big moves one way or the other soon. That's my best guess at the moment. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We finally saw some selling today as the Dow fell 208 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to trending lower. Todays price action was what I was looking for on Friday. The Dow was off over 400 points during the session. However I don't think this the beginning of a sustained decline just yet. The NASDAQ was up on the day and the S&P 500 sold off but made quite a comeback. So I still think things will run up into the July expiration. I could be wrong. The general market is still overbought but trying to work off the extreme level. GE was off 3/8 on average volume. Gold was up five bucks on the futures as interest rates fell. The US dollar was higher though. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. The short term indicators for both gold and the gold shares have turned back up but there still doesn't seem to be any interest in owning them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed all the way to its 50 day moving averge before falling back. It still finished higher on the day with the early drop off in stocks. I do not think that this is a precursor to lower prices in the near term. The VIX remains comfortably below the 20 level. A short trading week here in early July and I couldn't come up with any ideas over the weekend. It's a light week for economic data. I'll be on the sidelines for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Higher and higher we climb as the Dow gained 152 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now tracking sideways. The jobs numbers were better than expected but not enough for anyone to fear the Fed. My SPY July puts were losers from the open, which saw a gap higher. I took the over 30% loss and moved on. This was a trade that would be determined by the market reaction to the employment report. We are extremely overbought on a number of indicators that I follow but the market does not seem to care. The market is in full summer rally mode and I would expect this to last into the July option expiration in a couple of weeks. That doesn't mean that I won't maybe try the puts again next week for a short term trade because the overbought technical conditions cannot persist forever. The light volume on the way up can be discounted as a summer trait but that doesn't mean that there isn't cause for concern. The S&P 500 closed at another record high and finished above the upper Bollinger band. That conditon will not last. GE was off 1/8 on very light volume. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. Both interest rates and the US dollar were lower despite a better than expected jobs number. The XAU was up over 2 points, while GDX gained almost 1/2. Volume was light. Still just tepid interest in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again, remains oversold and that story hasn't changed. As long as the VIX remains below 20, the trend will be up. However I would be careful chasing things here because this market is getting out of hand in my humble opinion. Why not just buy the calls you might ask? Buying calls with the extreme overbought condition we now face is not usually a recipe for success. The market price action has all the signs of a blow off top and you do not want to be the last one to be buying. These kind of things never end well. Just look at a daily futures chart for lumber over the last six months and you'll see what I mean. For now, we'll enjoy the ride higher in stocks. Europe and Asia were generally higher to close out the week. A long weekend on tap but there's plenty of work to be done to come up with a game plan for next week. Despite todays losing trade, I'll be searching the charts for the next idea. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

July begins to the upside as the Dow gained 131 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The S&P 500 was the strongest of the major averages and set another new all time high. Overbought, staying that way and there is no overhead resistance. We'll see how things go with the jobs report tomorrow ahead of a long weekend. My order for the SPY July puts was filled today. They are about where I bought them. This could be a trade that I simply exit tomorrow regardless if we're up or down. Some of the indicators are hitting extreme overbought levels but that is usually a sign of strength. We'll see how it goes. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold was up five bucks, interest rates were a bit higher along with the US dollar. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses after opening higher. Volume was pretty light. Remaining oversold for the gold shares as they have been for weeks. I thought that perhaps a bottom was being put in but there isn't any interest in owning the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and had a tight range. Low volatility is generally positive for stock prices. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 had good sessions. The NASDAQ was a laggard. Just waiting on the reaction to the employment report for now. That will determine if this SPY July put trade succeeds or fails most likely. Strength for the S&P ahead of this report usually means more gains to come. We'll see. Asia lower, Europe higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the jobs report tomorrow.

Another mixed bag to finish off the month of June as the Dow gained 210 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The S&P 500 managed a new all time high but the NASDAQ finished the day in the red. Most of the major stock indices remain short term overbought. I did place an open order for some SPY July puts and I'm leaving the order out there. I'm not exactly convinced that this is the right idea because I could also make a case for an upside blow off here. So I'll reconsider this attempt tonight. GE was up over 1/3 on OK volume. Gold bounced $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. This could be a bottom for the gold shares as they've been oversold for 3 weeks. However I'm looking elsewhere for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after attempting to move up. Still oversold and below 20 here. Plenty of complacency but that's not unusal for rallies. I'm expecting some inflows of liquidity tomorrow and then the wait for Friday. A holiday weekend is on tap so whatever needs to get done will get done in the next two days. I'll need to see some upside tomorrow for my put order to be filled but could change my mind overnight. I'm not expecting a major decline right now but some weakness to profit from. I could be wrong. If the market simply continues higher from here, I'll look at the puts again in the middle of next week. Europe was lower and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see how July starts out tomorrow.

It was the kind of day that you could easily forget as the Dow gained 9 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to roll back down. The McClellan oscillator signal didn't pan out again. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 eeked out new all time highs. We'll finish out the month of June tomorrow. I'm still looking at the SPY July puts ahead of Fridays employment report. But the lack of volatility doesn't help the options game. Unless you're writing them of course. Still short term overbought for the S&P. I might try the puts if we get any strength to close out the month. I'm expecting positive money flows for the beginning of July so Thursday isn't out of the question either. GE was up twenty cents on OK volume. Gold fell $16 as the US dollar was a bit higher. Interest rates were little changed at the close. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares held up better than gold but they were already blown out to the downside. Oversold and staying that way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and remains short term oversold. To me it looks like the VIX is putting in a bottom but it remains well below the 20 level. Or perhaps I'm just hoping it's a bottom because I'd like to try the SPY puts and see some increased volatility. The VIX can move sideways for a while as well and that might be what's taking place. At any rate, the S&P is at the top of the Bollinger bands, short term overbought and in the midst of a light volume rally. I'm pretty sure that I'd like to try the SPY July puts ahead of the jobs numbers and the long holiday weekend. Asia lower, Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what the end of June brings tomorrow.

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow fell 151 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The NASDAQ was strong today and it set a new all time high as did the S&P 500. These two indices remain short term overbought. We did get another signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a big move within the next two trading sessions. We'll see if that bears fruit tomorrow. It appears as though we are seeing a lot of the end of the quarter, first half positioning taking place. I'm still considering the SPY July puts but waiting on Wednesday at this point. GE was off 1/4 on average volume. Gold finished little changed on the futures as was the US dollar. Interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. The gold shares are underperforming and that's bearish for this sector. No GDX trades in mind for now. Short term oversold and staying that was for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today and remains oversold be not decidedly so. I'm inclined to give the market a couple more days before trying the SPY July puts ahead of the jobs report. The market rarely cooperates though. TRAN and Russell 2000 down today as we're getting mixed signals about what is going to occur. It is hard to be too bearish with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 at new all time highs. We could also slip back into summer doldrums mode which would not be a help to either side of the options game. Asia was mixed with Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Last weeks decline is now a distant memory as the Dow climbed 237 points on what appears to be incredibly heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn back up. The Dow was the leader today, with the NASDAQ posting a small decline. The S&P 500 set a new all time high. It remains short term overbought but that doesn't mean that we won't go higher. There still seems to be plenty of liquidity to go around. A rise in interest rates today was ignored by stocks. It's summer rally mode for now. GE was flat on the session and volume was very light. Gold was up around $5 on the futures. Interest rates ended the day higher and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/8. Volume remains light. Thre's no positive interest in gold or the gold shares at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. We've had a light volume rally for stocks this week until today and the breadth hasn't been anything to write home about. Volume almsot doubled after the bell, so something was going on there. The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P 500 looks bullish and there is no overhead resistance. I'm still considering the SPY July puts but not exactly sure when to pull the trigger on that idea. The money flows into stocks should continue next week with the beginning of the month of July. We'll get the employment report on Friday but it's ahead of a long holiday weekend. There's also the possibility in my mind that the summer rally will continue into the July option expiration. So there will be plenty to think about along with going over the charts this weekend. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow climbed 322 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The volume remains light but perhaps that is just a byproduct of the summer. New all time highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. No overhead resistance. Overbought, staying that way and touching the top of the Bollinger bands. Yes I'm still considering the SPY July puts but will wait until next week at this rate. We could just be in the midst of the typical summer rally that will take us to the July option expiration. GE was up twenty cents and the volume remains light. Gold was off another five bucks on the August futures. The US dollar and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought here but I don't see any interest in owning the gold shares at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX once again penetrated its lower Bollinger band and set a new intra-day low. Short term oversold and the daily candlestick chart looks like it is trying to put in a short term bottom. That would mean an increase in volatility would show up and that would warrant purchasing the SPY July puts. However I must point out that the weekly candlestick charts for the most of the major stock averages look positive with bullish engulfing patterns going into tomorrow. Plus if the summation index does indeed turn back up it bodes well for the bulls going forward. I'm still on the sidelines for now. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Some late selling sent stocks lower and the Dow fell 71 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive again. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ finished higher again to record another new all time high. I'm looking at the July SPY puts for now as I'm inclined to follow the summation index cues. I'd prefer to purchase them at the beginning of next week but the market may not cooperate. The light volume on the way back up here isn't convincing me that this rally has a lot of legs. GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light. Gold was off around $5 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses lower and one day downside reversals. I'm not considering the GDX calls right now even though we are short term oversold. That idea didn't work last week and it seems as though GDX will remain oversold for now which usually isn't the case. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and made it all the way down to the lower Bollinger band before bouncing back. The short term indicators are getting oversold. If the VIX can hang around lower for a couple of more sessions perhaps my SPY put idea could work. However another issue that we have here for the markets is that summer is upon us. Sometimes things can really slow down and the market goes on vacation. Perhaps that's the reason for the light volume that we've seen this week. There is also still plenty of time in the July option cycle and the premiums are high. I'm watching and waiting for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight news.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 68 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still trending lower. Overall the broader market was stronger than the Dow. The Fed chairman was a non-event. The NASDAQ closed at a new all time high. The S&P 500 could do the same with more upside tomorrow. Last weeks decline already seems to be a thing in the past but we'll wait to see the rest of teh week first before coming to any conclusions. GE was off over 1/8 on very light volume. Gold was off half a dozen on the futures. Interest rates were stable while the US dollar had a small loss. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares remain short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and still implies more gains for stocks to come. Perhaps what we're seeing is the beginning of the summer rally for equities. The only caveat is the light volume as we do not trust light volume rallies. I think that we will have to see how the rest of the week plays out and take it from there. I have no trades in mind at the moment. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow roared back to the upside today, climbing 586 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still tracking lower. Extremely oversold was the case for the Dow and some kind of upside has been expected, it just took a while to show up. The question now though is it for real? Sometimes the Monday after expiration Friday is the opposite of the price action on Friday just to get things back in place. The rest of the week will tell us what is really going on. The Dow was the outperformer today and with the relative strength of the NASDAQ perhaps the decline has ended. We will wait and see though. GE was up 3/8 on lighter volume. Gold finally bounced today as well, the futures rose $14. The US dollar was a bit weaker and interest rates rose slightly. The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was average. Still short term oversold for GDX on its daily chart. Gold itself is still holding above the $1750 level. I do however get the feeling that gold may be dead money to the upside for a while. The medium term indicators for gold and the gold shares have not reached an oversold level yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a big move lower and the short term indicators have now rolled back over. This does imply that we are perhaps at the beginning of some kind of rally here for stocks. I will wait and see though because it seems the fundamental picture is changing with regards to the easy money policies that have been in place for over a year now. The market was short term oversold and today we saw a much needed bounce. Where we go from here will answer a lot of questions. For all I know we may just break out to new all time highs in the near term. But I'm willing to wait and see what happens this week for now. After all I'm in no rush to do anything after last weeks losing trades. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We've got the Fed chairman speaking to Congress tomorrow. We'll see if that turns out to be a market mover.

It was a negative end to the week as the Dow was driven down 533 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower and we'll take our cues from that. Very oversold for the Dow and we haven't seen anything that resembles a bounce. I thought by now we would have seen something to the upside but the technical indicators just aren't working as usual. That's a sign of trouble despite the NASDAQ holding up rather well here. The S&P 500 just closed below its 50 day moving average. We're short term oversold here for the S&P but that may not mean anything. I think that the market is going through a fundamental change that the easy money faucet is starting to be turned off. However that is just a guess on my part as my trading lately has been miserable. GE was off another 1/4 on better than average volume. Gold was off five bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues its climb. Interest rates were lower. Gold is at a two year up trend line that if it breaks will mean much lower gold prices going forward. It looks ready to break it. A close below $1750 would seal the deal in my mind. The XAU lost almost 3 1/2, while GDX dropped over 3/4. Volume remains above average. The gold shares are underperforming and that's not a positive going forward. Here again we should have seen at least a bounce but only get more selling. My stop limit loss order got down to my price but nothing happened. This has occurred to me before. I canceled that order and simply got out at the market. It was a 50% loss and that was one ill timed trade that should not have been entered. Once again the technicals are not acting as they usually do. Mentally I'm reeling from two losing trades this week. Gold is probably dead on the long side for a while and I was slow to accept that. I also think that the overall market is rolling over here but the NASDAQ continues to hold on. That's generally bullish but nothing is working for me at the moment. The VIX bumped up above its 50 day moving average and closed above the 20 level. That's a warning going forward and I certainly did not expect that. Also bonds caught a bid today that is the exact oppositie of what should normally happen when the easy money is being taken away. It looks like a flight to safety play along with the US dollar but gold is not participating. The only thing that I can say for sure is that things are changing in the game. Plenty of work to do on the charts this weekend, however I am most likely heading to the sidelines until I get a handle on things. Both Europe and Asia were lower to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow continues to fall here as it dropped 210 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now turning down. The Dow continues to underperform as the NASDAQ was up over 100 points today. For that reason I don't see the market about to fall into a major decline here. The summation index is now turning down but we haven't seen any downside gaps there yet. Both the Dow and the TRAN are oversold as well. The S&P 500 was off slightly. The Bollinger bands here have contracted to the point that we're about to see a big move in this index soon. As always, which way is the question. We'll know more as time goes on. Perhaps I was wrong about the impending summer doldrums. GE was off 3/8 and the volume was good. Gold got clobbered again as the futures dropped $38. The US dollar had a very strong day, while interest rates went lower. The XAU lost almost 9 points and GDX shed 1 7/8. Volume exploded to the downside. The gold shares had a gap lower at the open and never looked back. After looking over the charts again last night I decided to place an order for the GDX July calls. The gold shares are very oversold and at least due for a bounce or so I thought. The price I put in was so low I did not expect it to be filled. It was hit early this morning and the trade is a loser after todays price action. The stop loss order is in and will probably be filled tomorrow. There's plenty of time for this trade but I do not see an extended rally for gold or the gold shares in the near future. Not a lot of money in this idea thankfully but in hindsight I should have stuck with the original idea of heading to the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after bouncing around. The short term indicators are beginning to roll over which would imply higher stock prices going forward. I still think that we'll see some kind of bump up in prices either tomorrow or Monday according to some of the indicators that I'm looking at. We do have a very mixed market at the moment and I'm not exactly sure what that means going forward. Asia was generally lower and Europe barely higher overnight. We'll see how the option expiration goes tomorrow.

Fed angst would be the best way to describe todays market action as the Dow lost 265 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to move sideways. We got a sharp sell off on the Fed announcement that actually really didn't say anything we didn't already know. Such is the emotional nature of the game sometimes. The Dow was the weakest component of the major averages. The overall market did finish up from the worst levels on the session. I don't think that we're in for a major decline just yet but I could be wrong. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Up trend lines do remain intact here and the S&P is still above the 50 day moving average. We'll see if we get any follow through to the downside tomorrow. GE was off a dime and volume picked up. Gold got slammed and broke through support at $1850. The August futures contract lost thirty bucks. Interest rates rose and the US dollar had a good day to the upside. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX dropped over 3/4. Volume picked up to the downside. I sold my GDX June calls for a 95% loss. Another mismanaged trade without a stop loss order. I entered when GDX got oversold on a daily basis but unfortunately for me it simply remained that way. I'm tempted to go ahead and try the July calls there but will most likely head to the sidelines to regroup. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and closed at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are now mid-range here. I do not think that the VIX is implying a huge downturn at the moment. It remains below the 20 level and that is bullish going forward if things remain that way. Only a couple of days left for the June option cycle. The Dow is pretty short term oversold right now and I would expect to see some upside in the next few days. Things have been pretty uneventful until today and it's possible that the summer doldrums will be in full gear after this week. Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The economic data came in mixed and the Dow fell 94 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving up. Inflation was a bit higher and retail sales a bit lower for todays reports. We'll see how the market reacts to whatever the Fed has to say tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way lower today. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I'm not sure exactly what to expect on Wednesday. Probably just hanging around until the Fed statement and the chairmans speech. GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light. Gold dropped $7 on the futures. Interest rates and the US dollar ended the day little changed. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. The gold shares fared worse than gold today. The up trend line for GDX that has been in effect since April has been broken. My GDX June calls are big losers, probably over 90% when I close the trade out in the next couple of sessions. Even a big jump for gold tomorrow can't save this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit again today and the short term technical indicators have turned higher. That doesn't mean that we'll see a big drop in the stock market tomorrow but it's possible. My thining is that for now the trend still remains up as the VIX is well below both its 50 day moving average and the important level of 20. As I sit here stuck in a losing trade, looking back it appears that this idea never got its footing from the beginning. There were a couple of times it could have eeked out a small profit but it never took off in the right direction as desired. Not having the stop loss order in added to final loss total. Hopefully the negative result here won't affect the next trade going forward. Asia mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

A mixed bag to begin option expiration week as the Dow fell 85 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. A last half hour push surged the S&P 500 to a new all time closing high. Continuing with the short term overbought technical condition for the S&P. We'll get economic data out tomorrow including an inflation report. Wednesday we'll hear from the Fed. So there are potential market moving events waiting in the wings. GE was off twenty cents on light volume. Gold continues to sell off as the futures dropped a dozen but they did finish up from the lows of the session. Interst rates were higher and the dollar ended little changed. The XAU fell a point, while GDX lost 1/4. Volume was light. The gold shares continue to outperfrom the metal itself and that's a plus going forward. But I don't think that it will help my GDX June calls with only four days to go. They are solid losers and unless there is a dramaic turnaround from the Fed announcement they'll end up losing 90% or more. The positive technical picture of the 50 day passing through the 200 day moving average just isn't panning out as expected. After getting burned with the stop loss order on my last trade, I didn't use one for this idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators are trying to turn back up. Still comfortably below the 50 day moving average on the VIX. For now we'll wait and see how the market reacts to tomorrows data. Europe and Asia finished generally higher although some of the Asian markets for closed for holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We closed out the week on a whimper as the Dow rose 13 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. Listless trading throughout the day as summertime has come early to Wall street. A buying push in the final half hour led to the gains. The overall market continues to perform better than the Dow and that's a plus if you're long. Another new all time high for the S&P 500 and there is no overhead resistance. We do remain short term overbought for the S&P and the light volume isn't exactly encouraging. Option expiration week alnog with the Fed on tap for next week. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold did not follow through yesterdays gains and the futures dropped over twenty bucks. The US dollar had a good session but interest rates remained unchanged. The XAU fell 2 2/3, while GDX lost 2/3. Volume was light. My GDX June calls moved back to solid losers. I probably should have just taken the loss today. GDX is back to the up trend line that began in the beginning of April. If that line holds the trade has a chance to get back to break even. If not it's a loser. The short term indicators here have rolled back over and that's not a good sign. With only five days left in the June option cycle, time is running out. Not sure if I can wait on the Fed until Wednesday but may have to. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower yet again today and remains below its 50 day moving average. The lack of volatility has led to what looks like 2 1/2 months of sideways activity for the S&P. We're hitting new all time highs here but it isn't exactly a huge breakout. I'm not sure how much longer that will go on. The market seems to be in slow motion. Plenty of things to think about while going over the charts this weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish the overseas trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Once again it's not the data that comes out but the markets reaction to it. Inflation came in higher than expected but it eventually got shrugged off. The Dow managed a 19 point gain on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high and remains short term overbought. I'm guessing that we'll work our way upwards in the near term but I don't expect any kind of rip roaring rally. We did have some volatility today but in the end the bulls won out. After tomorrow option expiration week will be on tap along with the Fed. GE was off a dime and the volume was light. Gold was up ten bucks on the August contract as interest rates went lower despite an uptick in inflation. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU rose almost 4 points, while GDX gained almost a buck. Volume was close to average. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to turn back up. My GDX June calls have somehow turned around to a small profit again. With only six days to go in the June option cycle, the risk increases every day. However I do expect at least a little more upside due to the positive crossing of the moving averages. Plus the gold shares finally moved up with gold and that's a positive for the gold share bulls. Of course things could quickly change tomorrow in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after almost making it up to the 50 day moving average. Remaining short term oversold but the VIX can stay that way during rallies as it has in the past. What was pointing up here yesterday on the technicals is now pointing back down. However the TRAN continued lower today and I'm not exactly sure what to make of that. So we are getting some crosscurrents here. Asia was higher and Europe lower last night. We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow.

Hanging around today for the most part until the final hour which saw a sell off. The Dow lost 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market continues to fare better than the Dow and that gives the bulls some hope. Tomorrows inflation data will be the catalyst one way or the other unless this sideways malaise continues. The McClellan oscillator signal never panned out. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but I still think that we are about to break out to a new all time high. If I'm wrong and what we have here is a double top, there's a long way down to go. The TRAN is moving lower now and is at its 50 day moving average. Perhaps that will contain the decline there. We simply have to wait for tomorrow and the market reaction. GE was off over 1/8 on about average volume. Gold fell a few bucks despite lower interest rates. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. My GDX June calls are now solid losers. Unless we see a decent move higher tomorrow, this trade will head for the loss column. The 50 day moving average broke through the 200 day to the upside today for GDX. It did not cause any buying. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today due to the final hour sell off. The short term indicators here have now turned back up. It remains below its 50 day moving average though. More oversold than overbought for the VIX. Seven days to go in the June option cycle. It's been a pretty lackluster week so far for stocks. My guess is that will change tomorrow. I have no idea what the inflation data will say but the markets reaction to it is the important thing to keep an eye on. For now we'll wait. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Up, down and back up today but overall not much progress as the Dow fell 30 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up and because of that we'll maintain a bullish outlook going forward. The overall market finished a bit better than the Dow but it feels like we are simply marking time ahead of the inflation data due out on Thursday. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and stalling at new all time highs. There's a potential double top on the daily chart here but I'm still a believer in a breakout to the upside. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move within the next two sessions. If that signal is valid we'll see some kind of price movement tomorrow. GE finished flat on the session but did make it back from the lows. Gold lost $6 on the August contract. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU fell about 2 1/4, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was light. The continuing underperformance of the gold shares is a problem for the bulls. It is also a problem for my GDX June calls as they are now showing a loss. Getting short term oversold for GDX but it will have to start moving higher for the June call trade to work. The 50 day moving average should cross through the 200 day to the upside tomorrow for GDX. Whether or not that translates into some buying is a guess at this point. The gold futures contract has a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on its hourly chart. Or I could just be seeing things because I own some GDX calls. At this point it looks like I'll be hanging on to this trade into the inflation report. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished higher today after bouncing around. It remains oversold. I'm no longer considering the SPY June puts ahead of Thursdays report. One thing I don't like at the moment is the stagnant market atmosphere. It again feels like the early summer doldrums. Europe was mixed again with Asia generally lower. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Lower was the theme of the day for the most part as the Dow fell 126 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. We were lower from the open and the Dow was the relative underperformer. The NASDAQ sported a gain and that is a plus for the bulls going forward. The S&P 500 had a small loss and remians short term overbought. We're still on the cusp here for a new all time closing high and my guess would be that we'll see it within the next couple of days. The market is in what seems to be a waiting period until Thursdays inflation report. GE was off a nickel and the volume was light. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and treasury yields were slightly higher. The XAU lost 3/4, while GDX was basically flat. Volume was light. Higher gold prices and no rise for the gold shares is not a good sign for the bulls here. My GDX June calls are still around break even but at this rate this isn't a trade to get married to. I really do not want to hold on to this trade until the inflation report comes out but I may have to. One of the reasons I'm still in this trade is the fact that on the daily chart, the 50 day moving avergae is about to cross the 200 day moving average to the upside. That is bullish and should create some buying there when it happens in the next couple of sessions. The only thing that could derail this is a sharp drop in the next couple of days. I don't see that happening but the market goes where it wants. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat today and remains short term oversold. If it just moves sideways this week the market should be fine. I have been considering getting some SPY June puts ahead of the inflation report. I'll wait and see what the next couple of days bring before deciding on that. My guess remains that we'll see a new all time closing high soon but after that who knows? Concentrating on the GDX for now. Europe and Asia were mixed to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The jobs report was a bit lighter than expected and the market liked what it saw. The Dow rose 179 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. We had an upside gap at the open for stcoks and traveled higher for the rest of the session. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, led by the NASDAQ. That bodes well for higher prices in the beginning of next week. The S&P 500 is this close to closing at a new all time high. Should make it there next week as it remains short term overbought. Once we get past the old high, there is no overhead resistance. The only warning sign today is that the volume was not as robust as it has been. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold snapped back $21 today on the jobs report. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped as well. The XAU was up 2 1/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. Considering all the good news for gold today I would have expected better upside moves for the gold shares. My GDX June calls are showing a very small profit and I was tempted to just take it but I didn't. I should be out of this trade early next week unless an actual gold share rally takes place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an upside market day. Still short term oversold here and staying that way. During rallies the VIX can remain oversold for an extended length of time. I think that we're in one of those phases now. That said I may try the SPY June puts ahead of the inflation data next week if we simply continue higher from here. The NYA set a new all time high today but the TRAN was lower. All the major stock indices remain above their 50 day moving averages and certainly that is bullish. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and decipher a game plan to put in place next week. Asia traded mostly lower and Europe was higher to close out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It certainly wasn't a quiet session today as the market had a huge gap down to start the session. It spent the rest of the day battling back and the Dow finished with a loss of 23 points on the continues heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That is not a good sign for the bulls. It also makes tomorrows reaction to the jobs report even more important than it might have been. If we are on the verge of a rollover here, the double top in the S&P 500 has a long way to go lower. But that hasn't happened yet and we'll know more after tomorrow hopefully. The S&P remains short term overbought. GE was up a penny on average volume. Gold got clobbered today as the futures dropped $37. The US dollar was up and so were interest rates. The XAU fell 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/3 on good volume. The gold shares had a gap to the downside at the open as well and the recent consolidation there now appears to have been distribution. That doesn't bode well for my GDX June calls as the open order that I had out there was filled this morning. That trade stands now at around break even. I'll have to decide what to do with it at tomorrows open. Unless there's a dramatic turnaround it now appears that gold and the gold shares are headed lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished just slightly higher and remain short term oversold. Not getting a good feel one way or the other from this indicator at the moment. At this point it's just a matter of waiting for tomorrows market open and deciding where to go from there. There's still 2 weeks to go in the June option cycle but with todays sharp turnaround in gold and the gold shares, being on the long side there does not appear to be a good idea. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight. All eyes on the employment numbers Friday morning.

It seems like a market that is just hanging around as the Dow gained 25 points on heavy volume once again. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. Plenty of volume but not much movement spells either accumulation or distribution. Perhaps the market is just waiting for the jobs report. Whatever the case I cannot make up my mind for either the calls or the puts for the SPY. We remain short term overbought for the S&P 500 but the summation index is moving up. The TRAN was lower today, that may or may not mean something. The Robinhood crowd is back at it as AMC gained 100% today. That's surely a sign of speculation. I'll continue to watch what's going on in hopes of coming up with some type of near term strategy. GE was off a nickel and the volume was light. Gold was up $9 on the August contract. The US dollar was a bit higher, rates a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had minor fractional gains on very light volume. My open order for the June GDX calls remains The gold shares are atill short term overbought and staying that way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today and remains oversold. Not getting any help here as to the markets future direction. The beginning of June feels like the summar doldrums so far but that probably won't last. Something has to give sooner or later but I don't have a good feel for what's about to happen. Maybe tomorrow will help put things in focus. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines and take it from there.

We begin the month of June on a mixed note as the Dow gained 46 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trending higher. The Dow was up over 300 points in the first five minutes and spent the rest of the day selling off. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished the day with slight losses. The S&P remains short term overbought on the majority of its indicators. I'm not sure what is about to happen here with stocks but I hope to have a clearer picture before Fridays employment report. GE was up almost a dime and the volume was light. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU gained 1 2/3 but GDX only edged higher by 1/8. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX June calls remains out there. GDX also remains short term overbought and in a sideways trading channel. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced up today but remains below its 50 day moving average. Still oversold here but the VIX can stay that way for quite some time as it has in the past. If that's the case we'll see a rally at some point this week. But you can't really predict for certain what the indicators will do, hence my hesitation on taking a position in the SPY right now. Todays price action certainly wasn't bullish for the S&P by opening much higher and settling for a loss on the day. That's actually a one day reversal to the downside. I'm also not sure what the heavy volume today has in store for us going forward. So I'll be on the sidelines for the SPY for now and keep an eye on gold as we make our way through the week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A day of gains for the market during the final session in the month of May. The Dow rose 64 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to gain some traction to the upside. We were higher for much of the day but the market dropped in the last ten minutes with end of the month manuvering. The S&P 500 remains overbought and on the cusp of new all time highs. Provided there's no surprises over the long weekend, my guess is that we'll reach new ground early next week when trading resumes. GE was off 1/4 on averge volume. Digesting yesterdays stellar gains. Gold rose $8 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. Interest rates ticked lower. The XAU and GDX sported fractional gains on very light volume. My open order for the GDX June calls remains out there. Still short term overbought for GDX and I may cancel this order next week. Sideways movement for the gold shares while gold itself is rising is not exactly bullish. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was little changed after being lower on the day. Still oversold but remaining below 20 is bullish. Perhaps there's another short term SPY put trade coming up next week but I'll have to go over the charts this weekend to be certain. If we do hit new all time highs for the S&P next week there won't be any overhead resistance. Then a put trade would not be the right idea. I guess we'll see how the month of June begins and take it from there. Europe and Asia were both higher to finish the month. We'll take a break over the long weekend and be ready for the beginning of trading on Tuesday.

A mixed bag today as the Dow added 141 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The Dow was the outperformer as the S&P 500 was only slightly higher and the NASDAQ had a tiny loss. Remaining short term overbought for the S&P on most of the indicators. Todays abnormally high volume might suggest that traders got their business done today to take advantage of the long weekend. If that's the case tomorrow should be pretty quiet. But we'll see. The S&P 500 is either in a stall before heading to new all time highs or forming some kind of double top. Time will tell. GE was up almost a buck on very heavy volume. Some good news on the jet engine orders was the catalyst there. The contracting Bollinger bands proved correct with the move being to the upside. Gold was up a buck and the US dollar finished little changed. Interest rates were higher today. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. I did place an open order for the GDX June calls and I'm leaving it out there. It will take a drop in GDX to get filled. At the rate things are going here, GDX isn't going to make it back to the break out point at 38. The sideways movement is either a consolidation before it moves higher or a distribution before it takes a drop. My thinking is that it's the former. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has continued lower and now is short term oversold. My guess for now would be that the rally for stocks continues from here since the VIX just recently had a strong upside move in the beginning of the month. The VIX can stay oversold for a while at times. We'll see if this is one of those times. Asia was lower and Europe mixed last night. We'll close out the trading week and month before a holiday weekend tomorrow.

The Dow spent another day running in place as it gained 10 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The NASDAQ was a leader and that's a plus for the bulls. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 turned back around to the upside and that's a positive as well. The S&P 500 is working its way to short term overbought but isn't there just yet. We'll get some economic data in the next couple of days but we're heading into the end of the month and a holiday weekend. I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was up 1/4 and the volume remains light. Gold was off a few bucks on the August contract and the US dollar was higher. Rates were basically unchanged. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. I'm still considering the GDX June calls. Waiting for a move back to the breakout point at 38 but that may not occur. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and is comfortably below the 20 level. Although short term oversold the VIX is implying that higher stock prices are on the way. We shall see. Perhaps new all time highs are not out of the question after all. Maybe I'll just let this week pass on by and take it from there. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Basically a day of hanging around as the Dow fell 81 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is back to a sideways trend. Yesterday I thought we would work our way up to new all time highs soon. Today, that doesn't seem to be so sure. My hope here is that things drift higher towards the end of the week and then I'll try the SPY June puts. The fact that we could not follow through on such a positive session yesterday is cause for concern. However if we storm ahead tomorrow with good gains, the picture will change again. Never any easy clues in this game. GE was off a few cents and the volume remains on the light side. Gold was up $18 on the August futures contract. The US dollar was slightly lower and rates dropped again. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Gold up and the gold shares not doing anything is a negative. Perhaps we'll get lucky and GDX will drop back to the 38 level and give us a shot at the June calls. Gold and the gold shares remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a small bounce today but remains under the 20 level. Oversold on some of the short term indicators here but not completely. As long as the VIX remains below 20 we'll have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. However the negative price action today in the TRAN and the Russell 2000 gives me cause to pause on the bullish case. Now this could just be some end of the month manuvering or it could be the canary in the coal mine. We'll simply have to see how the rest of the week shapes up. Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Moving higher post expiration as the Dow gained 186 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. It appears that the S&P 500 is now headed for new all time highs. The short term indicators there have turned back up. We did have some last hour selling but higher prices look like they are in the near future. A caveat would be the light volume as we don't trust light volume rallies. But we'll see how things go from here. GE was off a nickel on very light volume. The Bollinger bands here are getting as about as narrow as they can. That implies a big move is not far off. Gold was up half a dozen on the August contract, while the US dollar was slightly lower. Interest rates dropped as well. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. I'm still interested in the GDX June calls if we ever see a pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and is now below the 20 level and beneath its 50 day moving average. This implies that higher stock prices are on the way. Not yet completely oversold here as well, so it appears the path of least resistance is higher for equity prices going forward. Now that could all change in a hurry but I doubt it at the moment. We had a sideways sell off and now it looks like stocks are ready to advance. The SPY option premiums are pricey though as we've just moved into the June option cycle. On the sidelines there for now. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A pretty quiet and mixed expiration Friday as the Dow gained 123 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn around. Early buying today was followed by a drift lower for the rest of the session. The market is still trying to make up its mind what to do here. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain mid-range as things could go either way here. We're going into the June option cycle now and the premiums are high. I'm waiting for a decent signal one way or the other. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold was up a few bucks on the August contract and the US dollar was slightly higher. Rates were little changed. The XAU was off a point, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was pretty light. We're still waiting for GDX to pull back to the breakout point of 38. Then and there we'll decide on trying the GDX June calls. Patience for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains above the 20 level and right above its 200 day moving average. Movement in the VIX next week should tell us a lot about what the market is going to do. Not a lot of economic data due out next week and it's the end of the month. The 31st is a market holiday, so the long weekend effect will be on tap as well. It may not be the most exciting week of the year but the market can and often does surprise. I don't exactly have a good feel for what's going on right now and will try and wait for a valid signal before taking on the next trade. Plenty of charts to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were generally higher to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside as the rally from yesterdays low continues. The Dow rose 188 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ was the leader and that's bullish. The problem is how much of the buying is for real and how much is options expiration related. Holding the 50 day moving averge was a plus for the S&P 500. The short term technical indicators here are now mid-range. Will the market continue to roll over here or are we going back to new all time highs? I'm still cautious but another upside day tomorrow could change my mind. GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light. Gold was up around $7 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was light. I'm still waiting for a return to the breakout level of 38 on GDX to try the June calls there. There's no hurry as we'll roll into the June option cycle on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 threshold for now. I'm not getting a good feel for what this indicator is telling us at the moment. Staying above 20 does imply more volatility though. Unless we see a lot of selling tomorrow, the weekly charts for the major averages are pointing higher. Perhaps we'll see that blow off top after all. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

What looked like a market rout turned into just another day on Wall street as the Dow lost 164 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We opened with a gap lower and the Dow was off almost 600 points at the worst levels. However buyers stepped in and we made our way higher for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ outperformed once again. The Dow did bounce off its 50 day moving average. Whether or not that holds going forward will tell us a lot. The S&P 500 also bounced off of the 50 day. Not yet completely oversold for the S&P but I do think things will hold up for the rest of expiration week. It's what happens after that I'm pondering. The Fed minutes came and went today. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Gold finished flat today as interest rates were a bit higher. The US dollar was up as well. The XAU lost 3 1/3, while GDX dropped almost 2/3. Volume was pretty good as profits from the latest move were probably taken. The gold shares are due for a rest and we'll look to get some June GDX calls if they get to oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed above its 200 day moving average today and then fell all the way back below it. The short term indicators have turned back up here and if they continue higher we'll see more selling. I'm just not sure that it will take place in the rest of this week. I am still in the negative camp going forward though. The S&P 500 has had a great run since March of 2020. However on the weekly chart the angles of ascent have been broadening out as we've moved higher. As the angles are broken, a new one forms. Sooner rather than later one of the broken angles will lead to a rollover to the downside in my opinion. We could be seeing that happening right now but time will tell on that. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Lower today as the Dow fell 267 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions. Today takes care of that. It was pretty much a trendless day until the final two hours when the market started to drop. I was stopped out of my SPY May put trade in the morning for around a 30% loss. Had I not been stopped out the trade would now be showing a profit. Such is the nature of the game sometimes, especially in options expiration week. You can't afford the luxury of time. My guess is that we'll continue lower tomorrow but after that I can't say for sure. The NASDAQ was the better relative performer today and that isn't exactly bearish. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range and pointing down. That isn't exactly bullish. I'm still on the cautious side when it comes to stocks going forward. GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was pretty light. Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was lower. Rates were up slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Waiting for a return to the 38 level for GDX in order to try the GDX June calls. Short term overbought on the gold shares any way you look at it. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the trading loss today. Managed it properly and a small loss is better than a large one. The VIX was higher today and that fits the markets negative action. Back above the 20 level here and my guess would be some more near term volatility in store. I could be wrong. The usual positive expiration bias has not shwon up yet this week. We'll get some Fed meeting minutes tomorrow and that could be a market mover. Three days left in the may option cycle and I should stick to the sidelines. Asia was higher overnight, with the major averages in Europe little changed. We'll see how things go tomorrow.