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Tuesday, August 03, 2021

We got an earnings rally today as the Dow climbed 278 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways but is trying to turn back up. The market has the feel of wanting to go higher in the near term and I'm not going to stand in the way. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high today. The other major indices are close to new highs as well. Perhaps this will usher in a blow off top that I've been looking to happen for what seems like months now. I'm still tracking the SPY August puts but purchasing them would be days away or early next week. The SPY remains short term overbought. The recent sideways movement here appears to be a consolidation with higher prices now coming. Of course that could all change tomorrow but I don't think it will. Gold was off a few bucks today. The US dollar along with interest rates finished little changed. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/3. Volume remains light. The gold shares continue to outperform and that is a plus. The problem for me here is that some of the short term technical indicators for GDX are already overbought. I really do not want to chase this move now. However I cannot deny the gold share strength and what it implies going forward. Never easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with todays rally. It remains above the 50 day moving average. Oversold on the short term indicators here but not completely so. A break below the 50 day would really encourage the bulls in my view. I'm remaining patient for now since there is still plenty of time left in the August option cycle. We also have the jobs report to get through on Friday. Europe and Asia finished mixed. We'll see if we get any follow through upside tomorrow.

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