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Thursday, August 05, 2021

Today it was back to the upside as the Dow gained 271 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index, like the stock market, can't make up its mind which way to go. It remains in a sideways trend. With such a nice gain in the stock market today, my thinking is that we'll move even higher tomorrow on the jobs report. That's my guess at the moment. The S&P 500 closed at another new all time high. It remains short term overbought. If we do trend higher into early next week, I may try the SPY August puts. However if the breakout from the recent sideways consolidation takes off we could see an upside blow off. I will try and let the market tell us what to do. Gold dropped around eight bucks on the December contract. Interest rates were higher and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU fell two points while GDX shed 1/2. Volume remains light. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. I'm still looking at the September calls here but will wait for GDX to get oversold before trying any options. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed at the 50 day moving average. Another day like today and it will make it back below there. It did close below the mid Bollinger band. Oversold here to be sure but in uptrends it can stay that way. I think tomorrows price movement in the market will tell us a lot. Still trying to remain patient for now. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the employment report tomorrow morning.

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