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Monday, August 16, 2021

We had quite a one day upside reversal today as the Dow opened lower and turned around to finish with a gain of 110 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to a sideways configuration. Geopolitcal turmoil in Afganistan affected the open but buyers stepped in and squeezed those who got short. The NASDAQ did finish in the red though. Four days to go in the August option cycle and I'm still considering the SPY puts here. The S&P remains short term overbought. I'll possibly purchase the puts tomorrow after I go over the charts tonight. It's a risky proposition to be sure but perhaps my patience to do this trade will pay off. Gold was up ten bucks and the US dollar was a bit higher as well. Flight to safety on the fall of Afganistan? Interest rates were lower. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed over 1/8. Volume was light. Gold up and the gold shares down is not a recipe for bullish success. WE are still short term oversold on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX jumped higher despite the gain in the Dow. That will happen with a big drop to start the day. The VIX does remain short term oversold. The Dow was almost 300 points down early in the morning. That kind of comeback cannot be ignored. We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow. Could this be the beginning of an upside blow off for stocks? Of course I've already asked that question at least a half a dozen times already this year. Europe and Asia were down to begin the week. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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