Wednesday, August 18, 2021
Continuing lower as the Dow fell 382 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The day was a drift for much of the session with the market finally falling apart in the final hour. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now moving lower. I think that we have seen the highs in this index for now. I'm not sure how low we're going but rallies can be shorted from here on out in my opinion. I did not get any SPY August puts this morning or afternoon as the little time remaining in the August contract kept me out. I've started to look at the SPY September puts but they've already started moving and the premiums are elevated. That should be the next trade though as I believe that the top is in now for the medium term. We'll hope to see some type of snap back up in the coming sessions. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. Both interest rates and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was good to the downside. My order for the GDX October calls is still out there. Another day like today should get it filled. Oversold and staying that way for the gold shares. GDX is half a point away from the 31 support level. I may have to adjust this trade because if the market continues to drop as I think it may, it will take the gold shares along with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped up with todays drop above the important 20 level and its 200 day moving average. It is not completely overbought yet but is almost there. More market decline tomorrow would do it. What I'll have to be here is patient to wait for some type of counter trend move back up in stocks in order to purchase the SPY September puts. There's no guarantee such a move will occur but it is too late to chase things here. Once again it looks like the idea is correct here, we must now try and take advantage of it. Hopefully things don't just fall apart from here but they could. Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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