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Monday, August 23, 2021

Quite a rally to begin the trading week as the Dow gained 215 points on light volume. The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to turn back up. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. It closed at a new all time high. The S&P 500 had a new intra-day high. The short term technical indicators there are now moving up. My prognosis for an extended decline to begin here appears to be wrong. I did place an order for the SPY September puts but it wasn't filled. I've left it out there but will reconsider what to do overnight. The bounce back form last weeks decline is certainly more than I though it would be. But the volume is pretty light and I never trust light volume rallies. Gold was up today as well as the futures rose over twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU climbed 5 1/2, while GDX was up 1 1/4. Volume was good to the upside. Perhaps the rally here for the gold shares has started. My open order for the GDX October calls wasn't filled and remains out there as well. GDX remains short term oversold despite todays nice gain. The train could be leaving the station for the gold shares right now. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its 50 day moving average. Not completely oversold here yet. Ther question for the market now is, was that it for the decline? Is it now off to the races with the NASDAQ leading the way? I've got to say that it really seems like that may be the case. The major stock indices have turned around quickly and are not yet overbought. The NASDAQ has pierced its upper Bollinger band but that doesn't mean it can't go higher. I'll have to go over the charts again tonight and try to figure out what to do. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see if we get any upside follow through on Tuesday.

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