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Thursday, August 26, 2021

Some selling today as the Dow fell 192 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving sideways. The S&P 500 is still overbought and the indicators have now rolled over. I'm not exactly sure if this is the beginning of an actual decline but there is a potential negative divergence on the daily RSI. My SPY September puts are showing a small profit. We'll see if we get any follow through downside market action tomorrow. Gold was up a couple bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher as well. Interest rates were little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators have turned back up. It does remain below the 20 level though. Tomorrow could be important here because if the market does sell off again, the VIX could get above 20 and imply more volatility. That would be fine with me since I'm already in the SPY put trade. However things could just as easily turn the other way, with the VIX moving lower and stock prices moving up again. The reaction to what comes out of the virtual Jackson Hole summit will be the market mover in my mind for tomorrow. It will be interesting to say the least. There's also some inflation data due out. Europe and Asia were lower overngiht. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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