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Wednesday, August 04, 2021

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 323 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to roll over. The Dow was the under performer today as the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The S&P was lower today as it could not build on yesterdays gains. It remains short term overbought on some of the technical indicators. I still favor the SPY August puts but really don't want to purchase them until after the employment report on Friday. The TRAN was pretty weak today as well so it looks like perhaps the market is ready to take a dip in the summer. But we all know that the market will go where it wants. Gold was up a couple bucks today as interest rates finished mixed. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU was off around 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume is still light here. The gold shares followed the market lower today. This is why I prefer to wait to get some of the GDX September calls. If the market goes into a summer swoon here, most likely the gold shares will follow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today and that doesn't fit with a down 300 market. Not sure what to make of it. Still above the 50 day moving average here. Only a couple of trading days left this week with Friday most likely being the most important. Obviously the market reaction to the numbers is what we'll be watching. Still trying my best to remain patient here. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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