Tuesday, August 24, 2021
A bit higher today as the Dow was up 30 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is in the process of moving back up. The market had better gains during the day but sold off in the final half hour. Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. My open order for the SPY September puts remains out there. We are getting to short term overbought for the S&P. I might just get the puts tomorrow because I'd like to own them ahead of the Feds Jackson Hole summit. Premiums remain high though and there's a chance we just continue on higher from here as well. There is no overhead resistance. Gold finished little changed on the day as did the US dollar. Interest rates were higher. The XAU was up 1/2, while GDX finished unchanged. Volume was light. GDX remains short term oversold implying that there's more room to go to the upside near term. I'm leaving my order for the GDX October calls out there but it will take a decline of a point or so to see it get filled. I'm not in a hurry on this idea unlike the SPY puts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was little changed today and remains below its 50 day moving average. We are nearing the end of summer and there's also a possibility that things slow down before the beginning of September as players take their final summer flings. The Fed chairman will speak at the Jackson Hole meeting virtually on Friday but we can only guess at what will be said there. My thinking right now is to get short any strength tomorrow even if the premiums cost more than I'd like to pay. I guess I'm still a believer in a decent decline for the September option cycle. Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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