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Friday, August 13, 2021

The grind higher continues as the Dow rose 15 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving higher as well and it looks like a grind too. It isn't the usual gapping higher movement that we're used to seeing here. That could be a warning that the rally isn't all that strong. And it isn't. Weak breadth and volume are the norm for this particular rise. We are setting new all time highs for the Dow and the S&P 500. But the environment is lackluster summer trading with many players absent. If we continue higher into Tuesday, I'm probably going to try the SPY August puts for a short term trade. But with only a week left in the August options, the risk is pretty high. I am also looking at the SPY September puts. Gold rallied on a weak consumer confindence report and the futures gained over $25. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. So for today at least things were in golds favor. The XAU added 2 1/4, while GDX was up 2/3. Volume was light. GDX is still oversold and I'd still like to wait to see if it can get back to the 31 level. Plenty of bears for gold right now and that is a good contrary indication that the September or October calls for GDX may work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today, remains oversold and is down to around its lowest level this year. To me, this is setting up for the index puts to work. The only question is when and I think sooner rather than later. But with the current lack of trading participants, the current conditions are not ideal. I do not want to force things here so I may just hang out on the sidelines until before the next Fed get together in Jackson Hole on the 26th. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish the week. I'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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