Tuesday, August 17, 2021
Selling was the order of the day as the Dow fell 282 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. The Dow was off 500 at one point so a comeback was made. I did place an overnight order for the SPY August puts but it wasn't filled. So this idea for a trade was most likely missed. I do think we will be heading lower as time goes on but there's only three days left now in the August option cycle. I am looking at the SPY September puts but the premiums are pretty high with so much time left there. I can make a case for trying something tomorrow but I'll have to wait and see what the market does early before deciding if the risk is worth the effort. On the plus side at least my thinking was headed in the right direction. Gold was up three bucks on the December contract. Interest rates were flat but the US dollar had a good gain. The XAU lost two points, while GDX dropped over 1/3 on average volume. The gold shares followed the overall market lower. Still short and medium term oversold for GDX. I did place an order here for the GDX October calls and I'm leaving it out there. If GDX drops to the 31 level the order will probably get filled. I also may cancel it before then if the stock market really starts to fall apart. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped up today and fell back from its upper Bollinger band. The short term technical indicators here have turned to the upside. The VIX closed back above its 50 day moving average. No clear signal being given here now in my mind. I do think that the SPY August put trade has been missed but we'll wait and see what happens tomorrow. If we do rally early on I may try it again. Plenty to ponder overnight. Asia was down and Europe generally lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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