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Thursday, August 19, 2021

The Dow continued lower today as it lost 66 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 posted small gains today. I'll be looking for some kind of bounce in the coming days and that should be the opportunity to get some of the SPY September puts. We've got the August option expiration tomorrow so we'll have to see how that goes. The short term technical indicators or the S&P have moved into oversold territory. Not completely oversold but in an area that has held the declines in place before. We also touched the lower Bollinger band today for the S&P. So perhaps the decline is done for now but I do expect it to resume shortly. Gold lost $7 today and the US dollar continued its climb. Interest rates were lower. The XAU dropped 2 3/4, while GDX fell 1/2. Volume was average. GDX has made it to the 31 support level but I don't think it will hold at this rate. The gold shares have been very weak lately. I adjusted my open order for the GDX October calls and went out to a lower strike price. Even with doing this, I'm not sure this is a trade that will work out positively at this point. But I will take a chance if it gets filled. GDX is both short and medium term oversold. So the idea and question is if not now, when? Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX almost made it up to the 25 level today and finished with just a small gain as the market came back from the decline at the open. Overbought here now and the short term indicators appear to be starting to roll over. The question is has volatility returned to stay? I think so as I'm looking for much lower stock prices going forward. If the VIX stays above the 20 level we will certainly see more decline in prices. For now we'll let Friday pass and look to but some SPY puts next week on any strength. Europe and Asia were lower as the pullback from stocks is heading around the globe. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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