It was pretty much a day of running in place as the Dow lost 54 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The market was lower at the open and then drifted with a positive bias for the rest of the session. My SPY May puts are still showing a small loss. There was point during the day where they sported a slight gain but I'm giving this trade another day or so. However there is a possibility that today was it for this idea. Not much in the way of data out this week. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold continues its climb and the futures gained $28. The US dollar was slightly lower and rates were basically unchanged. The XAU was up 8 2/3, while GDX soared 1 7/8. Volume was heavy to the upside and GDX broke above the long term resistance at 38. Perhaps it will continue higher into the expiration on Friday. All we can do now is wait for a pullback back to the breakout point at 38 and purchase some calls there. No doubt overbought now for the gold shares but they could just continue higher. But we'll try and be patient for now and let this trade come back to us if it does. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but finished well off of the highest point of the day. It also closed back below the 20 level which can be seen as bullish. We'll have to wait and see what happens here tomorrow. Only 4 days left in the May option cycle. If we don't see some selling tomorrow I will most likely get stopped out of the current SPY May put trade. So we'll see. I'm not feeling all that confident about turning a profit here after todays price action but you never know. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The market powered back up today as the Dow gained 360 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to turn around. The overall market fared even better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way higher. That's bullish. The market has come back pretty far and pretty fast. I did purchase some of the SPY may puts today but I think this may be the wrong idea at this time. They are showing a small loss. I have the stop loss order already in and if the two day rally continues this trade will be stopped out. It looks like early Monday morning will decide the fate of this trade. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light. Gold added another $16 on the June futures contract. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 4 3/8, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was light. Perhaps I should have stuck with the GDX May call idea but the volume here isn't encouraging. GDX is also at longer term resistance at the 38 level. A break through this level with good volume will be the green light for the gold shares. GDX is currently overbought but not completely. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX was lower today closing both below its 50 day moving average and the important level of 20. Could the VIX be telling us the decline is over? Stay tuned. Such a strong snapback in stock prices over the past two days leads me to believe that perhaps we've seen all the selling for this time around. I'm not completely sold on that because the volume was nothing special today. However I cannot rule out the possibility with options expiration week on tap. The usual positive bias there would take my SPY May put trade to the losing ledger. Only a week left for the May options. I'll go over the charts this weekend and see what I can find. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An oversold bounce today as the Dow jumped 433 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. Inflation data was a bit more than expected but the rally began at the market open. I do not think that the decline has ended but I could be wrong. That said, I am looking at the SPY May puts for a short term trade. Hopefully we'll see some more upside tomorrow to get short. As long as the summation index continues to go lower, expect price to follow. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up over ten bucks on the June futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. I'm still considering the GDX May calls but time is running out. I might have to go out to the June contract as GDX does not quite have the price movement of the SPY. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that is a definate plus for the bulls. The short term indicators here are rolling over. Normally I'd be thinking that the SPY calls would be in order but the scope of this decline in such a short amount of time has me thinking otherwise. Now we have made it down to the 50 day moving averge for the SPY and bounced. SPY is short term oversold but not completely. That leads me to believe that we'll be heading back lower before the option expiration next Friday. I could be wrong but I'm looking for a spot to try the SPY May puts between now and then. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Selling was again the name of the game today as the Dow got slammed. The most watched index lost 681 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. I did put in another order for the SPY May puts but it wasn't filled. It looks like this trade was missed although we may get a chance if there's a snapback that fails. But the opportune time for this idea has passed. Inflation data was higher than expected and that will be the excuse for todays price action. However the negative RSI divergence for the S&P is a more plausable reason. Not yet completely short term oversold for the S&P but we are almost at the 50 day moving average and we got there in a hurry. If that doesn't reign things in the next support is at 395 for the SPY and 3950 for the S&P 500. It looks like the Russell 2000 is about to break down from a head and shoulders top. The NASDAQ is short term oversold and the double top there looks ominous. I'd still advise caution for purchasing stocks at this time. GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good. Gold fell $18 on the futures as the US dollar was higher and interest rates jumped. The fundamentals for gold are turning bearish. The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX was off 3/4. Volume was average. The gold shares remain more overbought than oversold here but I still think that they could move higher in the remaining time left for the May options. If and when the overall market bounces back, the gold shares should go with it. But the risk is much higher than it was a week ago. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up again today and has cleared its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are at the point where I'd expect an exhaustion of the near term selling, perhaps as early as tomorrow. That doesn't mean that we won't go lower as we move along here, it means that the near term push to go lower should abate. It also doesn't mean that it's time to step in and buy stocks again right away. The VIX climbing above the important 20 level says that volatility has returned to the marketplace and probably won't be going away anytime soon. More inflation data due out tomorrow. Asia was generally lower and Europe slightly higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow got clobbered today as it fell 473 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to head lower. The Dow was the weakest of the major indices. No real news to use as an excuse for the decline. The market is simply feeling heavy. The negative divergences that we saw are for real and expect lower prices going forward. That doesn't mean that we won't have some buying coming in. But it does mean use those times to look at the short side. i did place an overnight order for some SPY May puts but it wasn't close to getting filled. I'm leaving it out there in hopes we get some kind of snapback rally before heading lower again. There's only 8 days left in the May option cycle but if the decline is for real, it should last for over a week at least. GE was off 1/4 on average volume. Gold was up a buck or so after being sold off hard early on. The US dollar finished little changed as rated ticked up again. The XAU gained 2 3/8, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. The gold shares had a one day reversal to the upside as they opened much lower to begin the trading day. I also placed an overnight order for some GDX May calls that wasn't filled. I had two orders that I was thinking about and unfortunately chose the wrong one to put in. The other would have been filled and already show a nice profit as the gold shares are being bought at the moment. Overbought here to be sure but the market is in a peculiar spot right now. I've since canceled the GDX call trade and will probably focus on the SPY for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up again and touched its 200 day moving average. It also closed above the important level of 20. This probably means that volatility has returned unless we see a rally from here to new all time highs. I think that the probability of that happening is low. My best guess is that we'll see the SPY decline to its 50 day moving average at around 403 between now and expiration Friday on the 21st. That's why I'm trying to get some SPY puts as the strategy right now. We've got inflation data due out the next two trading sessions. This should provide reasons or excuses for movement in the markets near term. Europe and Asia were both lower as we are seeing selling around the globe. The market always knows more than we do. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We saw numerous downside reversals today with many indices opening higher and closing lower. The Dow fell 35 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. There is a potential negative RSI divergence for the S&P 500 on the daily chart. I was hoping for a blow off top for stocks but it looks like that isn't going to happen. I think that today marks a near term top. Whether or not it's a longer term top we'll only know as time goes by. I'll be looking to get some SPY May puts on any kind of move back up from here but it might already be too late. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down here and that is bearish. My guess is that the negative RSI divergence for the S&P is for real and that lower prices are what's in store going forward. We'll see. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold rose $6 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. Rates ticked up slightly. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX was off a nickel on lighter volume. I think that the rally in the gold shares is due for a pause but I am still looking at the GDX May calls if we get oversold here in a hurry. If the overall market does move lower it should take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up and that certainly fits with todays market action. It is right back to its 50 day moving average and about to cross the threshold of 20 with another day like today. The VIX was looking bullish on the close Friday but now the picture has changed. I'd advise caution when it comes to purchasing stocks at this time. Asia was mixed and Europe relatively flat last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 229 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. New all time highs for many of the major stock indices including the S&P 500. The jobs report came in much weaker than expected but it did not matter. The market is simply going up until it doesn't. Getting short term overbought again for the S&P but it isn't all the way there yet. If we continue higher early next week, I'll be looking at the SPY May puts. But the easy money all around doesn't make that a longer term idea. GE was up almost a dime on light volume. Gold continued its run up as the futures gained $17. The US dollar was lower but rates ticked up for some reason. The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was good. Gold has now both broken through the resistance at $1800 and the long term down trend line that had been in effect for months. Any pullback would be a spot to get long. GDX has almost reached its long term down trend line at 38. It should make it through but perhaps a pause is in order before that happens. That would be the time to try the GDX calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a good decline today and that fits the markets action to the upside. Not yet short term oversold here so there's room to go higher in the near term for stocks. Staying below the 20 level for the VIX insures that the rally has legs. The VIX is saying that whatever selling there was is over for now. I will still look at the SPY May puts though for a short term trade if we get to short term overbought next week. However I may change my mind after going over the charts this weekend if I see something else. Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days. Foreign markets were generally higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Rallying ahead of the jobs report makes you wonder if the market knows something we don't. The Dow gained 316 points on OK volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues sideways. Even the NASDAQ was up today but not as much as the Dow. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move coming within the next two sessions. Todays price action takes care of that. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back up. The tight Bollinger bands imply a big move and after today it appears that the move will be up. Perhaps even new all time highs for this index tomorrow. The Dow is leading the way here and that is usually a late stage of the rally event. Perhaps we will see a blow off top after all. GE was flat on average volume. Gold broke above the resistance at $1800 and closed up $28 on the June futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 5 3/4, while GDX gained 1 1/8. Volume was good. It looks like I've missed the opportunity for the GDX May call trade. GDX is not completely overbought yet but the best time to try the calls has passed. I might try to chase this move if we see some pullback but I don't think that will happen. Mentally I'm feeling a bit dissappointed. Of course you're not going to catch every trade that you look at but missing out always has you wondering. They say missed money is better than lost money but it certainly doesn't make you feel any better. There's always other trades though. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here have rolled back over with plenty of room to go lower. That would support the next leg up in the current rally. That appears to be what is about to happen regardless of the employment report. But we'll have to wait and see what transpires tomorrow morning. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the first trading week in May tomorrow.

Another mixed session as the Dow gained 97 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Once again the NASDAQ was lower as the overall market just can't seem to get its act together one way or the other. I'm being patient with regards to the SPY as we still have the jobs report to digest on Friday. GE was up almost a dime on light volume. Gold was up about $9 on the futures and the US dollar finished basically unchanged. Rates were a bit lower. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX edged higher by 1/3. Volume was light. I'm still considering the GDX May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is also figuring out which way to go. My best guess here is that the market rallies on the jobs report Friday but that's still just a guess. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are about mid-range and the Bollinger bands are contracting. Some kind of move is going to happen soon in my view. The easy money hasn't gone away so I'm sticking with the bulls for now. I think that Friday may very well tell the story. It's a matter of whether or not to take a position before then. Asia was mixed but it's still a holiday for some there. Europe was higher. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

An interesting Tuesday as the Dow sold off early on comments from the Treasury secretary but then made it all the way back. The most watched index rose 19 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The Dow was about it as far as making it back into positive territory. The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were both lower on the session. The NASDAQ led the way down as the tech sector got sold off again. Not sure what that means but we are getting short term oversold there. However if the double top on the daily chart for the NASDAQ is for real, there will be a lot more downside to go. I'm staying on the sidelines with regards to the S&P for now. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good. Gold fell $13 on the June futures as the US dollar was up. Rates dipped a bit. The XAU dropped 2 1/8, while GDX slid 1/3. Volume was light. The gold shares had an early rally but then fell off. I will say that the gold shares are acting OK here and I'm once again considering the May GDX calls. GOLD reports earnings tomorrow and I'm going to let that happen before deciding on whether or not to pursue this idea. The negative weekly candlestick pattern for GDX is also causing me some hesitation when it comes to making a call trade here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed above 20 today but did close underneath that important level. It also dropped back below the 50 day moving average. Either today was the start of something big to the downside or the selling has concluded for now according to my interpretation of this indicator. We'll know more tomorrow but that's my best guess at the moment. We had a day like this last week when some tax jibber jabber caused some selling only to be followed by new all time highs days later. We'll know more in the coming days. Europe and Asia were generally lower, with parts of Asia still on a holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The month of May begins with a gain for the Dow as it climbed 238 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending sideways. It wasn't off to the races though as the NASDAQ posted a loss for the day. We'll see if that means anything going forward. The S&P 500 closed off from the best levels of the day and remains overbought. Still dealing with earnings reports and awaiting the jobs numbers on Friday. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. Moving sideways here and waiting to see which way we go. Gold gained $24 on the June futures contract as both the US dollar and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 6 1/2, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was good. It appears that I've missed the chance for the GDX May calls after todays price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and that fits with an up market. The short term indicators here have turned back down and that says that perhaps a rally is getting underway. If so we'll soon be seeing new all time highs for the major stock indices and perhaps the blow off top that I'm hoping for. The Bollingers bands are starting to level out now for the VIX but they still imply some type of big move in the near future. We'll be keeping an eye on it. Asia was lower with holidays closing some of the exchanges there. Europe was higher. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Lower to end the week and the month as the Dow fell 185 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving sideways. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over but remain overbought. The market is still in a pattern of indecision in my view. We are about to enter a period of weak seasonality for stocks as the sell in May and go away crowd will get some air time. The potential double top is still there for the NASDAQ along with an elongated head and shoulders potential top for the Russell 2000. I'd still like to see some kind of blow off advance for stocks to get short but the market rarely cooperates with your best laid plans. We'll see how the beginning of May rolls out. GE was off a few cents on average volume. Bollinger bands still tight here. Gold was off five bucks as the US dollar was higher. Rates were slightly lower. The XAU fell 2 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume remains on the light side. Getting short term oversold now for GDX. I will consider the GDX May calls over the weekend. However the weekly candlestick chart for GDX has a bearish topping pattern on it after this weeks price action. That is something to consider as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators are now moving up. I still think the VIX could go either way here but it is now at the top of its Bollinger bands. If it falls back down from here perhaps we'll get the rally I'd like to see in order to try the May SPY puts. We're still below the 50 day moving average here and the important level of 20. Plenty of things to think about over the weekend while going over all the charts. Europe and Asia generally ended todays session in the red. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Up, down, up was the pattern as the Dow gained 240 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now trending higher but not decidedly so. That basically means that it is moving up but without the robustness seen with other advances. That doesn't mean that things won't move higher going forward. It does mean that the rally is getting long in the tooth. GDP came in where expected and after a gap open we sold off into negative territory. However things turned around and back up we went. Still plenty of money to go around. GE was flat on average volume. Sitting on the 50 day moving average here. Gold was down $7 on the June contract and finished well above the lows for the session. The dollar was little changed and rates ticked up a bit. The XAU was off 3 1/3, while GDX lost 2/3. Volume was average for lately. Not yet completely oversold for the gold shares. If we get there I'll most likely try the GDX May calls. HOLX got clobbered on its earnings report, losing over 6 points on heavy volume. Obviously getting the calls there was the wrong idea. Thankfully my orders never got filled and I didn't make the trade at any price just to get in. You live and die by the sword trading earnings reports but the profits can be as spectacular as the losses. Trading the individual issues is much riskier than the indexes in my humble opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up despite the gains in the stock market today. That doesn't fit. It did spike up to touch the upper Bollinger band. Those bands keep contracting and something big is brewing. The short term indicators there remain mid-range. End of the month trading on tap Friday, not sure which way we'll go. I'm still hoping to see a blow off top to get some May SPY puts. Europe lower and Asia higher last night. We'll close out the trading week and month tomorrow.

A quiet day until we heard from the Fed and then the market took off to the upside only to come right back down before the close. The Dow dropped 164 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher but is basically still going sideways. The overall market was not as weak as the Dow. The first three days of this week have been sideways with light volume as the market is trying to decide what to do here. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500. I'm remaining in the bullish camp as nothing has changed to stop the flow of easy money just yet. We'll get 1st quarter GDP tomorrow. GE was off 1/4 on good volume. Gold was up $5 on the June futures and finished well above the lows of the session. The US dollar was lower and rates finished little changed. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX rose over 1/8. Volume was light. GDX had a one day reversal to the upside as it opened lower and closed higher. Perhaps today was the time to try the GDX May calls. I placed another order for the HOLX May calls but it wasn't filled. I modified it near the end of the day but then simply canceled it as I was not going to get my price on what I was willing to risk on the calls. Earnings due out after the market closes. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was little changed again and the technical indicators are still mid-range. Bollinger bands are still contracting and a big move in the market is coming our way soon. I'm thinking a blow off top but that's just a guess on my part. GDP should be pretty good tomorrow and that should put the players in a buying mood. We'll have to wait and see. The market moves where it wants to. Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

In a holding pattern ahead of the Fed as the Dow was up a couple points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow. My guess is that we'll be heading higher tomorrow as I'm not expecting any surprises from the Fed but you never know. Still short term overbought on the S&P 500. Earnings season continues. GE sold off early but came all the way back to be off a few cents on heavy volume. The Bollinger bands are very tight here now and a big move is coming one way or the other soon in GE. Gold was off five bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. Rates did move higher today ahead of the Fed. The XAU fell 2 7/8, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was light. Waiting for oversold for the gold shares. The gold shares are starting to underperform here lately and that's a warning sign. I did place an open order for some HOLX May calls today. It wasn't filled. Earnings are due out tomorrow for HOLX after the bell. I may try to get the calls before the close Wednesday. More oversold than overbought for HOLX but this is strickly an earnings trade. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed and the short term indicators are still mid-range. Bollinger bands beginning to contract here as well. But I'm still looking for higher stock prices going forward this week as there is no overhead resistance and earnings have weak last year numbers to beat. We should hear a dovish Fed tomorrow as the easy money flow hasn't stopped. So we'll see what happens. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We begin the week mixed as the Dow fell 61 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ as the outperformer. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. There's no overhead resistance and as the earnings come in this week we should see further gains. We do have the Fed announcement on Wednesday to deal with but nothing new is expected there. 1st quarter GDP will come in on Thursday. So there are some potential market movers in the pipeline for this last week of April. GE was up a couple cents and the volume was heavy. Earnings due out here tomorrow. Gold rose three bucks as the US dollar finished little changed. Rates were little changed as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. GDX remains overbought but not extremely so. I'm still waiting to see if we can get to oversold here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today which doesn't fit with the mostly overall positive session for stocks today. The short term technical indicators here are mid-range. Not getting a clear signal here today on which way to go. However I'm still viewing last week as a consolidation before we move higher. So far so good but things can turn on a dime in this game. We'll see how the earnings coming out appear as I think we're in a just waiting on the Fed period for now. What the bulls don't want to see here is a roll over for the averages. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher in last nights trading action. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

It's been a back and forth week in the market and today it was back to the upside. The Dow gained 227 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving sideways as the market tries to figure out what to do here. The economy looks good and the earnings numbers are coming in strong. I'd expect new all time highs again next week. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but in rallies it simply stays that way. This week looks like a consolidation before pushing on higher. There is no overhead resistance. The only caveat today was the light volume. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. Gold dropped $7 on the June contract despite a decent fall in the US dollar. That isn't a good sign for the bulls. Rates were slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on very light volume. I'm still looking at the gold share calls if they get back to oversold. Hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX traveled back down today and the short term indicators have rolled back over. This implies higher stock prices going forward next week. I'm a believer in that also. We'll get the end of the month of April too and I do believe that new all time highs will be seen. There remains plenty of money around to lift stocks. We'll see what happens when we get to May. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend and might be trying trade in an individual stock ahead of its earnings in the beginning of May. More research must be done beforehand. Europe was a bit lower and Asia mixed overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Turnaround Thursday as we were heading up and then news of a higher capital gains tax rate roiled the markets. The Dow fell 321 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The market is now trying to factor in exactly what kind of taxes it can expect to pay for whatever is next on the governments agenda. Needless to say that higher taxes on capital gains won't be a plus for stock investors. The details have yet to be determined but just the notion of higher taxes drove things lower today. It still has the feel of just a consolidation before moving higher but we'll see. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Tomorrow could give us a clue if we indeed continue lower. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold dropped ten bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher. Rates were little changed. The XAU lost 3 1/4, while GDX fell almost 2/3. Volume was light. Still overbought for the gold shares on a short term basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped back up which was interesting considering yesterdays drop. This still puts some more selling into play if it continues higher tomorrow. There is some room on the short term indicators to move higher into overbought territory. I think that the 20 level will contain any further rise in this indicator. If we move above there I might have to change my outlook. The NASDAQ along with the Russell are still hanging in there. The Bollinger bands on the Russell 2000 have contracted to the point where a major move one way or the other is coming. I'd keep an eye on that for clues as to what's about to happen here. With all the money sloshing around I wouldn't expect a huge decline but we'll let the market tell us where it wants to go. Europe and Asia finished higher last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 316 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to track sideways. Gains all the way around as the selling has stopped for now. We'll probably hit new all time highs again soon. I'll be watching for any possible divergences when and if that happens. The other potential negatives with the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 don't look so potential after todays price action. GE was up about 1/4 and the volume was light. Gold gained $15 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower. Rates were little changed. The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX was up 2/3. Volume was light. Looks like we won't get a chance to jump on the gold bandwagon this time around. Overbought and staying that way. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX dropped today and that fits with todays price action. Unless we see a big down session tomorrow, the VIX should trend lower and stock prices trend higher. We're still in the good seasonal spot for equities but at the tail end. Perhaps a nice run higher into the end of the month and then the picture could change. Just a guess on my part there. Still plenty of earnings reports to sift through. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Selling continued today but it wasn't a full scale race to the exits as the Dow lost 256 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now turning lower. The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow. So some sellers have finally showed up but I don't think that this is the start of something big or long in duration. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over but we're still in overbought territory. I'm keeping an eye on the Russell 2000 here as it could be the canary in the coal mine if it breaks down. Hasn't happened yet and as always the market will go where it wants. GE was off 3/8 and volume picked up a little. Gold bounced back $6 on the June futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and rates were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Overbought for the gold shares and I'll wait for some type of pullback before attempting the May GDX calls. Gold is now finding a bid and the tone of this market has changed. I'm a believer in the long side here but we may not get a chance to get back in. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped again but has so far stayed below 20. There is still some room on the short term indicators to go higher here which would mean some more selling in the near term. We'll see if that actually happens. Still plenty of earnings reports to digest and the comparisons have to be better than last years coronavirus numbers. Staying patient on the trade front for now. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 123 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall now. The negative price action that we saw today was the opposite of Fridays expiration. That usually happens on the Monday after expiration either way. The NASDAQ led the way lower. I'm not expecting a downturn here and we'll probably hit new all time highs again later in the week. That's my best guess at the moment. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold lost about ten bucks on the June contract and the US dollar was lower as well. Interest rates went up slightly. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was light. We're still overbought on the gold shares. With an extra week in the May option cycle, there's plenty of time to let a long side trade work itself into the picture here. I am looking at the GDX May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped up today but finished well off of the highs for the session. We are still oversold here on a short and medium term basis. For the bears out there, I'd keep an eye on the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. The former may be forming a double top on the daily basis chart. The latter perhaps a complex head and shoulders top. It's just something to keep an eye on. As long as the summation index keeps moving higher, the bulls are in charge. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

We closed the week on a high note as the Dow gained 164 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive and the summation index continues higher. More new all time highs abound as the market has no sellers. Extended, overbought and whatever else you want to call it but the market keeps chugging along. Not sure how much longer it will go on like this but it's usually longer than you think. The S&P 500 is getting pretty far away from its 50 day and 50 week moving averages but that doesn't mean it can't continue. Not sure what to look for here, perhaps a high volume blow off top kind of day. However trying to guess when that will happen is probably a losing game. GE was off around 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold was up about a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower. Rates ticked up a little today. The XAU rose a point, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was light. GDX is right at the long term down trend line that has been in effect for months. Overbought short term now here as well. Some sideways to lower price action here would set us up for the May GDX calls in a perfect world. We're rolling into the May option cycle that has an extra week in it. The premiums are high as expected for now. However the May GDX calls appear to be the next trade in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower yet again today and remains very oversold. This indicator is suggesting that the rally will live on though. We're in earnings season and the comparisons should be looking pretty good for most companies after the beginning of the pandemic at this time last year. We'll have to wait and see if the sell in May crowd shows up this year. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a near term game plan. Europe and Asia were higher as money is finding a home in stocks around the world. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

All time highs all around today as the Dow jumped 305 points on what now passes for average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Running up into option expiration and that was to be expected. No overhead resistance and the almost extreme overbought conditions remain. We are on our way to a top but where that will end up is the question. Starting to go straight up again and that never ends well. My belief is at some point the May SPY puts will be the place to be. But for now we'll enjoy the ride higher. We had strong economic data yet interest rates were lower and that doesn't fit. We'll see how long this rally can last and it's usually longer than you think. GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light. Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained $28. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU climbed six points, while GDX was up almost 1 1/2. Volume expanded to the upside and that is bullish. GDX is now almost at the long term resistance at 36 that goes back to when the most recent decline began. GDX is in a declining rectangle that started nine months ago. A break above 36 changes the picture if it occurs. I believe that it will. Any hesitation here for GDX is an excuse to try the May GDX calls in my view. It doesn't look like it will get back to completely oversold anytime soon. Of course I could be wrong but the volume today says that things are going to go higher for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and remains oversold. Yes, it seems like a broken record but the VIX is staying oversold as the overall market is staying overbought. This too can't go on forever but even if we get an expected pullback the VIX is saying that higher prices are in the future as well. As long as the VIX stays below 20 the trend will be up. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trading action. We'll see how the options expiration goes tomorrow as we close out the trading week.

The Dow added 53 points on light volume today. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow as the mixed bag market continues. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Things were moving along nicely to the upside but then turned lower with two hours left in the session. Overdue for some selling but I'm not sure that this is the actual top. We're still overbought on all of the major stock averages as earnings season kicks in. GE was up 1/4 on what passes for average volume now. Gold dropped about $10 on the June futures contract. The US dollar was lower and rates ticked up slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares continue to perform well in spite of the recent weakness or sideways trend for gold itself. For me, that's a positive moving forward and I'm still looking at the GDX May calls if GDX can get to oversold. GDX has so far managed to stay above its 50 day moving average this time around. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up slightly today which fits the overall market but not the Dow. The short term technical indicators here are starting to turn up. If they do, we'll see some type of pullback but I wouldn't expect a rout and it hasn't happened yet. We could also just be on our merry way higher again tomorrow and the VIX indicators remain oversold as they have for weeks now. Two days to go in the April option cycle and we'll sit things out for now. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Once again a mixed picture on wall street as the Dow fell 66 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. The S&P 500 remains short and medium term overbought. It reached a new all time high today. I think that we are in the late stages of this rally now though. Things will probably trend up into the option expiration but after that, I don't think it will be so easy. Indicators are getting stretched to the point of breaking for the S&P. Going straight up the upper Bollinger band and moving further away from the 50 day moving average never ends well. I'm looking at the May SPY puts. GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold found a bid today and bounced back a dozen on the futures. Higher US inflation data was the reason given. The US dollar dropped and so did interest rates which didn't really fit with higher inflation. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX gained almost 2/3. Volume was light. I'm looking at the GDX May calls if we get back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that coincides with the overall market but not the Dow. Oversold here for so long but that is a big plus for the bulls. The rally will live on as long as the VIX remains below 20. Tomorrow we'll get the Feds beige book and we'll see if we get some kind of market reaction to that. Looks like I'll simply remain on the sidelines for the rest of this week. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A little minor selling to start the week as the Dow fell 55 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were even. The summation index continues higher. Lack of volume means no interest but I still think that we'll head higher this option expiration week. The underlying overbought technical conditions persist for the major stock indices. However there is no overhead resistance and no selling of any consequence lately. GE was flat on the session and volume was light. Gold dropped a dozen today and the short term technical indicators are rolling over. Rates ticked up slightly while the US dollar was little changed. The XAU fell 3 points, GDX shed 3/4. Volume was light. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit higher today. It remains oversold and stuck there on the short term indicators. As long as the VIX remains below the 20 level, the bulls have the benefit of the doubt. With only 4 days to go in the April option cycle I'll most likely be on the sidelines this week. I have no SPY trades in mind at the moment. Europe and Asia were lower last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Sunday update: I mistakenly said that the Feds beige book was due out and reported this past Wednesday. The recent Fed policy meeting minutes were reported on Wednesday the 7th. The Feds beige book will be out this Wednesday the 14th.

Up, up and away as the Dow climbed 298 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. We witnessed a buying spree in the final hour. New all time highs on many indices with no overhead resistance. Remaining overbought on all time frames. This is beginning to feel like a runaway train or the speculative upside blowoff that I mentioned before. I continue to believe that things will run up into the April option expiration in a week. After that, who knows? There are no sellers at the moment but the light volume isn't something not to be concerned about. Not sure how high we'll go here but enjoy the ride. GE was up over 1/8 and volume picked up a little. Gold dropped but came off of the worst levels on the day. The June futures lost a dozen. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares held up rather well as the XAU shed 1/2, while GDX was flat. Volume was very light. The gold shares continue to outperform the precious metal and that is a plus. I did sell my GDX April calls but my exit wasn't very good. Still short term overbought for GDX but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. I did not want to take the risk of holding them into next week. The profit was 240%. The weekly chart for GDX remains bullish and I'll wait for it to get short term oversold and then perhaps try the calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and the oversold technical condition here remains the same. Comfortably below the 20 level on the VIX means the rally can last. But the market is beginning to feel a little frothy and going straight up never ends well. Still, you can't argue with price and stocks are being bid up. We'll see how things go next week. Plenty of charts to check this weekend. Asia was mixed again with Europe generally higher to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow rose 57 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to trend upwards. New all time highs for some of the major stock indices including the S&P 500. We remain short term overbought on most of the indexes and have been that way for quite some time. There appears to be no sellers. The Fed chairman spoke today and the market liked what it heard. Easy money will continue for as far as the eyes can see. It will end eventually but not anytime soon or so it seems. I'm still looking for a drift higher into the option expiration next week. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Golds rally continues as the June futures were up $17. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had a slight drop. The XAU was up 3 1/2, while GDX rose 7/8. Volume was light. Short term overbought for GDX and it is touching its upper Bollinger band. My time in the GDX April call trade is coming to the end. There's a chance that it goes higher from here but when I look at the technical indicators they're saying it's time to go. With any luck I'll be getting out of this trade tomorrow. It is still showing a decent profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains very oversold. Solidly below the 20 level, this indicator implies that the rally has plenty of room to run. The market can stay overbought longer than you think sometimes. I think that we're in one of those conditions at the moment. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It seems as if the market is on hold here as the Dow gained 16 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The Feds beige book was a non event. Chairman Powell is giving a speech tomorrow so we'll see if that gets things going. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought any way you look at it. The best case scenario for the bulls would be more sideways consolidation before heading higher again. I'm still a believer in more gains going into the April option expiration. GE was flat on the session and the volume remains light. Gold was off six bucks on the futures as the US dollar had a slight gain. Interest rates finished little changed. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was light. My GDX April calls lost some ground today and it could be time to sell them. Not completely overbought in the short term though so there may be another push higher. I'll give it some more thought tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and touched its lower Bollinger band. We've been short term oversold here for too long. I'm having a hard time trying to figure out what's going on with this indicator but I don't think that it is signaling a big decline is in the forecast. Some near term selling perhaps but not a debacle. That's my best guess at the moment here. Another fly in the oinment is that the NASDAQ hasn't made it back to new all time highs as the other major averages have. We'll keep an eye on that going forward as well. My near term focus remains on gold and the gold shares for the current GDX call trade. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The rally took a break today as the Dow lost 96 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. As long as the summation index is moving up, the path of least resistance is higher. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. It is also above the upper Bollinger band which doesn't last that long. Perhaps we'll move sideways before heading to new all time highs again. The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow and that's another plus for the bulls. We'll get the beige book tomorrow and perhaps that will get things moving one way or the other. A caveat here is the light volume. GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light. Gold was up over a dozen on the June contract as the US dollar conitnued lower. Interest rates dropped as well to help the precious metal. The XAU was up almost 2 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light here as well. I would have liked to have seen the gold shares act a little better today. Getting short term overbought here but not all the way there yet. GDX has made it above its 50 day moving average again but it hasn't been able to stay above there for the past six months. My GDX April calls are still in the black with 8 days to go in this months option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was barely higher today and that fits with the small decline. We've been oversold here for a while now on the VIX and that won't last much longer I believe. Solidly below the 20 level though and as long as that's the case I don't see any major decline coming. Of course, I could be wrong. I still think that stocks are going to run up into the April option expiration. After that, we'll see. Most of the major stock averages are overbought on both the short and medium term. Thay usually stay that way during multi-week rallies. Asia was mixed with Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The market took off to the upside as the Dow gained 374 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Stronger than expected job creation is the excuse for the rally. New all time highs in many of the major stock indices but not the small stocks yet. No overhead resistance and plenty of cash to go around. I'll look for the rally to continue into the April option expiration. Short term overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. GE was up over 1/8 but the volume was pretty light. Gold finished little changed on the June futures despite a drop in the US dollar. The strong jobs report may have had something to do with that. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The short term rally in the gold shares look like it could take a rest here. My GDX April calls are still showing a profit. I'm inclined to hold on to this trade for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a little today and that doesn't jibe with a market up over 300 points. Not sure what it means going forward. We're still well below the 20 level though and that supports higher prices going forward. Some econmic data due out this week and the Fed chairman will be speaking on Thursday. Interest rates ticked up higher today but it didn't affect the stock market this time. I'm still bullish for now but if we continue going straight up it could be the speculative blow off that leads to a decent decline. Hasn't happened yet but I'll be keeping an eye on things as usual. A lot of overseas markets were closed last night but what were open moved higher. We'll see if they follow todays US rally tonight.

Moving higher to begin the month of April as the Dow gained 171 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The overall market was once again stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. New all time highs for the S&P 500 as the 4000 level was crossed. There doesn't seem to be anything in the way of higher prices going forward. The only drawback here is the light volume but it is a holiday week. The S&P remians short term overbought. My thinking is that prices could run up into the option expiration in two weeks but that isn't set in stone. For now we'll enjoy the ride. GE was up over 1/8 on light volume. Gold continues to bouce as the futures rose twenty bucks on the June contract. The US dollar was lower and interest rates took a step back. The XAU was up 5 1/2 to climb back above its 50 day moving average. GDX was up a little over a point on average volume. GDX is right at the 50 day moving average and getting above it would be a plus for the bulls. With a couple of brief exceptions, the 50 day has held prices in check for GDX for the past half a year at least. The short term technical indicators here have turned up. My GDX April calls are now showing a better profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped much lower today and now is well below the 20 level. This means that the rally is on. In general, when the VIX stays below 20 any decline will be brief and not turn into something more. This makes sense as the government is printing so much money that it has to find a home and the home will be stocks. The recent declines that we've seen are just bumps in the road as we travel higher. Europe and Asia were higher last night as spring has brought buying around the globe. Time for a long weekend in which I'll be checking the charts and getting in some relaxation. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a rest.

March finished mixed as the Dow fell 85 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. The market was doing pretty good all day until the last hour of trading. Gains were cut in half. Could just be end of quarter manuvering, we'll know more tomorrow. The light volume this week says traders are on spring break. We'll see how the week finishes tomorrow. GE was off around 1/8 on light volume. Gold bounced where it had to for the bulls as the futures rose over twenty bucks and back above the $1700 level. The US dollar was barely lower. Interest rates went back and forth during the session but finished higher. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was average. My GDX April calls are showing a minor profit. If we see some upside follow through tomorrow this trade might have a chance. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains below 20. This fits with the overall market but not the Dow. A decent rally would have everything working together. We don't have that going on right now. I'm still looking for the 4000 level on the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought. I think that we'll just look to get through tomorrow to close out the week and then relax during the long holiday weekend. The jobs numbers will be out on Friday when the market is closed and nothing can be done about that until Monday morning. Europe was slightly lower and Asia more so in last nights trading. We'll begin the month of April but finish the week of trading tomorrow.

Lower today as the market is still trying to make up its mind on what to do here. The Dow fell 104 points on lighter than lately volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is back to trending sideways. The Dow opened lower, bounced around for the day and ended with a loss. This is considered a holiday week with the markets being closed on Friday. We also have the end of the month and quarter tomorrow. So perhaps traders are just stepping aside here until next week. The S&P 500 remains overbought and on the cusp of new all time highs. I'm still looking for it to get to the 4000 level soon. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was up over 1/3 on light volume. Gold continued to fall and the futures dropped almost thirty bucks. It's now back below the $1700 level. $1680 needs to hold or gold will be heading lower from here. The US dollar continues to rally. The XAU fell 4 1/8, while GDX shed a point. Volume was average. My open order for the GDX April calls got filled. They closed about where I bought them. Not completely oversold for GDX so we could see more weakness tomorrow. If $1680 doesn't hold for gold this trade will be a loser. If it does hold then a double bottom would be in place for gold and the trade will have a chance. I have liked the way the gold shares have held up recently and this idea has a little over two weeks to work. The market will go where it wants though regardless of anyones trades. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below the 20 level. That doesn't fit with a down market. Not sure what it means and the VIX remains in a sideways consolidation. Interest rates pulled back during the session after moving much higher overnight. Perhaps the rally in rates is due for a pause. That's a guess as usual but the short term technical indicators there remain overbought. Not sure what to expect with the end of the month tomorrow and then the jobs report due out when the market is closed on Friday. I'll probably just sit tight with the latest GDX trade until next week unless we go into freefall from here with gold. Anything's possible in this game. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Another mixed session as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower. The most watched index gained 98 points on good volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative though. This is turning the summation index back down. The overall market was weaker once again with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. I still think that we're going to see higher prices in the near term but if the summation index continues lower I'll have to change my view. Talk of a hedge fund going belly up isn't helping the bulls. Rates ticked up again today as well. We'll see where we go from here. GE was off a few cents and the volume was light. Gold was off $17 today as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX finished flat on the session and up from their lows. I do still have my open order for the GDX April calls out there. The gold shares are holding up well when gold itself is dropping. That is bullish going forward. I'd like to see the order get filled but I'm not going to adjust the price just to make that happen. I'll reconsider what to do tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back above the 20 level today. The short term technical indicators have moved back up. Thay have been going back and forth for over a week now. The VIX needs to get and stay below the 20 level for the rally to continue. A negative day tomorrow for the market would change the scenario. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We now have a better idea of where we're going as the Dow climbed 453 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were more than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Buyers showed up in the final hour and pushed indices to the brink of new all time highs. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We should breach the 4000 level early next week. The rally occurred despite an uptick in rates. Not sure how high things will go here but there will be no overhead resistance. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Gold rose five bucks as the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU gained 3, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was pretty light. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to turn back up. The daily candlestick chart has a bullish upside reversal pattern after todays price action. My open order for the GDX April calls hasn't been filled. I'm inclined to just buy some on any weakness Monday. I'll consider this over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower, remains under the important 20 level and is implying higher prices going forward. It is short term oversold but can stay that way for weeks in an uptrend. The stock market has the feel of going up with the price action of the past two sessions. The technical indicators are starting to confirm this. I'm looking at strength to begin the holiday shortened week coming up and then we'll see where we go from there. I'll be taking a closer look at GDX and whether or not to try that idea. We're still in a favorable seasonal period for stocks as well. Plaenty to ponder over the weekend while checking out all the charts. Europe and Asia were both higher as money has come pouring back into stocks to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Today we had a one day reversal back to the upside as the Dow gained 199 points on pretty good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The Dow was stronger than the overall market. I'm not exactly sure of what to make of the market action here lately. The S&P 500 did hold its 50 day moving average today. The short term technical indicators here are now mid-range which suggests things could go either way. Perhaps the selling is done for now but we can't be sure. The summation index is still moving down and I don't want to go against that. We'll see what happens tomorrow to finish off the week and go from there. GE was up 1/3 and the volume was better. Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. My open order for the GDX April calls remains out there. Not completely oversold on GDX just yet. May or may not get there. I'm still trying to figure out if this trade is worth taking the risk. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed below the 20 level once again today. This indicator shows the most promise for the bulls as it climbed all the way up to the 50 day moving average today and was repelled. Any follow through lower tomorrow would be a plus for the upside in stocks. We'll simply have to wait and see. Then again we might just be in a sideways market for a while. Basically the market is trying to make up its mind what to do here. When in doubt, stay out. I'm on the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY. However I'm not as cautious as earlier this week after todays price action. Europe and Asia were slightly higher as foreign markets try to stop the recent slide there. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index only fell 3 points but was up over 350 points this morning. Volume was pretty good and picked up heading to the downside. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving lower. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. This, despite a drop in interest rates. I'm not exactly sure what we're dealing with here but caution is advised for now. The S&P 500 is heading towards its 50 day moving average and we'll see if that can hold things up. GE was off over 1/8 on average volume for lately. I mention GE because I did buy it a couple of years ago and just sold it recently. It wasn't exactly a trade, considering the time it was held. The profit was good for holding it that long, around 80%. However I was looking to hold on to it longer and reap better gains. But the announcement of a reverse stock split means head for the exits in my experience. Gold rose $7 today and the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX dropped 1/3. Volume was light. I did place an order for the GDX April calls overnight but it wasn't filled today. I'm leaving it out there. With gold higher and the gold shares lower that really isn't a good sign for the bulls. The short term indicators for GDX also have room to go lower. I'll reconsider this trade tonight when going over the charts. If the overall market continues to drop it will probably take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and remians above 20. The technical indicators here have barely turned around and the VIX remains short term oversold. Not sure where it goes from here. If it just meanders around the 20 level, the market will probably just move sideways. If it starts to spike higher then we'll see a pretty good sell off. We'll have to wait and see what the market has in store for us. I don't have any SPY trade set ups at the moment. I would still recommend caution for now. There's plenty of time left in the April option cycle. Europe and Asia were mostly lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 308 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down. We'll take our cues from there and move back to a cautious stance. My overall bullishness is over. Unless we see a dramatic upside day tomorrow prices are most likely headed lower from here. How can things change in just one day? It's the nature of the game. The market knows everything and todays price action was anything but positive in the recent scheme of things. The short term indicators for the S&P are starting to roll over again. GE lost 1/2 on what is now considered average volume. Gold fell over ten bucks as the US dollar had a strong session. The XAU dropped 4 7/8, while GDX lost 7/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. This may be the opportunity to get some of the GDX April calls on a pullback. Or not. There's always the possibility that this is the beginning of another leg down for gold and the gold shares. GDX once again could not get through the 50 day moving average. Unless there's a complete collapse here, I'll probably be trying the calls. I may even leave in an open order overnight. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX, which looked so promising yesterday, has now closed back above the 20 level. Still short term oversold here and we'll know more in the coming sessions about what is going on here. We haven't been able to sustain being under 20 yet. So the market is at an interesting juncture that should sort itself out by the end of the week hopefully. I'm not going against the summation index though and it's pointing to lower prices. So we'll see. It was noted that interest rates were lower today but that didn't help equities. Europe and Asia were generally down. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A positive session to begin the week as the Dow rose 102 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative though. The summation index is starting to roll over. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Interest rates stepped back today but the market did sell off in the final hour. I'm still feeling positive going forward for now. If the summation index does roll over here I will have to change my view. GE lost almost a dime and the volume was light. Gold was a bit lower and so was the US dollar. The XAU fell about 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was very light. The short term technical indicators for GDX are still overbought but have started to roll over. If we get a pullback here I'll be looking to purchase the GDX April calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped significantly today and closed below the 19 level. This is another reason to remain bullish here. Although still short term oversold the action in the VIX paints a positive picture going forward. Keeping below the 20 level is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains overbought but can stay that way in rallies. I do not see a near term trade set up in the SPY right now. Patience will be required. The option premiums are high since we just rolled into the April option cycle. It is watch and wait for now. Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overngiht developments.

Another mixed bag on expiration Friday as the Dow fell 232 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ up almost 100 points. The market is trying to make up its mind here on what to do next. I'm back to looking for new all time highs in the indices. If the overall market would have tanked today it would be a different story. But it didn't and the stall in prices here now seems like just a pause on the way to higher prices. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500 but not drastically so. I think that we'll go higher next week. GE was flat on the session and the volume was light. Gold continues to act well, the futures were up $7. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. GDX remains below its 50 day moving average. Any weakness here can be bought in my opinion and I'm still hoping for some type of pullback to purchase the GDX April calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around during the session but finished above the 20 level. Still short term oversold here. I'm not exactly sure what to expect from this indicator going forward. We are moving on to the April option cycle and the premiums will be high. I'll be waiting on some kind of legitimate signal before executing the next trade in the SPY. We are still in a positive seasonal period for stocks. Equities have also continued to rise despite the back up in interest rates. So we really have to remain with a bullish tone for now. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Well it looks like everything that I said yesterday has been negated by todays sour price action. The Dow fell 153 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now stalling here. The overall market fared much worse than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and have plenty of room to move down. My thesis on rates being done with their rise was incorrect as they hit new recent highs today. Very overbought and staying that way for interest rates at the moment. Sure the SPY March puts would have worked today but who would attempt that trade with only two days left? That kind of short term deal has been proven to not be in my wheelhouse. This could simply be just a one day wonder and we'll know more after tomorrows price action. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was light. Gold dropped a dozen on the April futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU fell almost 3 points, while GDX lost 5/8. Volume was light. Short term overbought for the gold shares here. If we do get a pullback I'll be looking to try the GDX April calls. The gold shares have acted reasonably well here lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher today and finished well above the 20 level. This changes the picture here unless we see a sharp drop back below 20 tomorrow. The break of 20 this week could simply have been a false move depending on what happens from here. The short term indicators for the VIX have turned back up but it still remains oversold. Tomorrow will be a telling session for the market even though things could get skewed with the option expiration. My idea of up, up and away from here for stocks could be wrong. Europe and Asia were generally up on the overnight session. We'll see if they follow the US lower tonight. Option expiration tomorrow.

Back to the upside for the Dow as it climbed 189 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Fed came and went. The market liked whatever it heard, which was nothing unexpected. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500 however there is no overhead resistance and we're still in options expiration week. I'm not considering the SPY March puts anymore with only 2 days left to trade them. I'll start looking out to April for the next SPY trade. GE was up almost 1/2 on light volume. Gold found a bid with the dovish Fed as the futures were up a dozen. The US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 3 3/4, while GDX rose 3/4. Volume was average. Another missed trade here as I was not expecting March to be gold positive. I do still plan on getting some April GDX calls here if we get some kind of pullback in the gold shares. The weekly candlestick chart is bullish and the indicators there have plenty of room to go higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has now decidedly closed below the 20 level. This implies much higher stock prices going forward as the rally lives on. Longer term you now must be bullish unless we get a quick move back up in the VIX. It is short term overbought but can stay that way when the market is moving higher. It looks like the 10% correction in the NASDAQ is all we're going to get and it's up, up and away from here. Weakness can be bought in my opinion. The jump in interest rates is probably over for now as well. Extremely short term overbought there now. Perhaps a drop there in the coming days will spur the SPY to the 400 level. Just a guess on my part. Europe was lower and Asia mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Lower for the Dow today as it fell 127 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The overall market was better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ positive. A positive day for the S&P today would have set us up for the SPY march puts tomorrow. Now that trade isn't as easy. I'll have to see what the price action is early on and take it from there. We are short term overbought on the S&P but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. GE was off twenty cents on lighter volume. Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed. A waiting game on the Fed tomorrow. The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/8. Volume was pretty light. Waiting for a set up to try the April GDX calls. May or may not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX barely closed below the twenty level today but the just is still out on whether we make it through there or not. A positive day tomorrow would probably do it and set the stage for much higher prices going forward. We did see some cracks in the wall today though with both the TRAN and the Russell 2000 lower. I don't know if that means anything or not yet. I'm still bullish in the longer term for stocks. Just trying to figure out if a short term SPY put trade tomorrow is worth the risk. We'll see. All eyes and ears on the Fed, with the markets reaction to whatever happens being the key. Three days left in the March option cycle. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The march higher continues as the Dow gained 174 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Overall the broader market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. There is no overhead resistance as the Dow along with the S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. Everything seems to be pointing up as there are no sellers. We are now short term overbought. I'm thinking of perhaps trying the SPY March puts if we continue higher into Wednesday for the Fed meeting. It would be quite a risky trade with less than 3 days to go. However if we do just rise from here I'll probably give it a try. GE bounced back 3/4 on heavy volume. The reverse stock split that was announced last week caused the huge drop off. It hasn't been voted on yet but I'm not a fan of the reverse split. It is never a really positive event in my mind. Gold was up about ten bucks on the futures, while the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was light. Getting overbought now for the gold shares. I would like to try the GDX April calls if the opportunity presents itself. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell today and is right at the important 20 level. We are short term oversold on the VIX. The 20 level has held things for the VIX for the past year or so. A break below this level would imply that the rally is going to go longer and higher than is currently thought. If we can't get through there, a pause or decline should occur. So we'll see where we go from here. Retail sales out tomorrow but we're waiting on what the Fed has to say on Wednesday afternoon. Asia was higher with the exception of China, while Europe was slightly lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag again as the Dow climbed 293 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow was stronger than the overall market, with the NASDAQ in the red again. I did place an open order for some SPY March calls but it wasn't filled. I might try this idea again next week depending on the market action early in the week. It is getting late for this though. GE was up 1/3 on heavy volume. Gold was slightly higher after being off twenty bucks early. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU and GDX were up slightly, also coming up from the worst levels on the session. The GDX April calls will be in order on weakness next week if we get any. The weekly candlestick chart for GDX has now printed a bullish reversal pattern. So if we see some selling in the gold shares next week we will be buyers. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and is now short term oversold. We're getting close to the twenty level here which has proven to be hard to crack. If we can make it through the rally will continue and go higher than most expect. If not there will be a pause and perhaps another move lower. It's something to keep an eye on. Only a week to go in the March option cycle. last month I attempted a trade in the expiration week and got clobbered. I will hopefully not make the same mistake this time around. The NASDAQ is having trouble making it past the 50 day moving average and is another thing to watch going forward. Plenty of charts to go over on the weekend. Europe and Asia finished the week mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 188 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow again with the NASDAQ leading the way. It closed above its 50 day moving average. We did pull back from the best levels of the session on the S&P. So perhaps some consolidation is in order. The S&P 500 did close at a new all time high. If we get some pullback here, perhaps I'll try the SPY March calls for a short term trade. I'm expecting the positive option expiration bias to be in effect next week. GE was off a buck on extremely heavy volume. They sold their air laesing business in a widely anticipated deal. Sell the news I suppose. Gold pulled back slightly today and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU added 3 1/2, while GDX gained 5/8. Volume remains on the light side. The gold shares performing better than gold itself is a positive though. I'm still waiting to try the GDX April calls. The short term technical indicators for GDX have already turned back up but are not overbought as of yet. The light volume is a concern so there's no point in chasing this move higher right now. Resistance for GDX is at 34 and we'll see what happens when we get there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and it's getting short term oversold. Therefore any attempt at trading the SPY calls in the March option cycle would have to be short term. Meaning a couple days or so at the most. It's good to see the small stocks take the lead again for the bullish cause. The only caveat on the move higher is the contracting volume as the indices have moved higher. It is a warning sign but not necessarily a deal breaker for trying the SPY March calls in the next six days. We'll see. Europe and Asia moved up in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Once again were getting a mixed bag when it comes to stocks as the Dow soared 464 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The Dow was by far the best performer of the day as the NASDAQ posted a small loss. The S&P 500 did manage to get throught the short term resistance line today and close above it. I'm still considering the SPY March calls if we get some selling here soon. However the opportune time to buy the calls here has passed. Not yet completely overbought for the S&P, so there's a chance that a call trade before expiration could still work. I do not however like the fact that the Dow is leading the way here. It's a healthier market when all stocks are rising and that isn't the case at the moment. GE was off 3/4 on extremely heavy volume. It does need to work off its short term overbought condition. Gold was up around another five bucks as the US dollar was slightly lower in todays trade. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. No volume equals no interest in the gold shares right now. I'm still looking at the April option cycle here if I decide to try the GDX calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and still has plenty of room on the indicators to support the short term rally that we find ourselves in. It is true that the S&P 500 could be forming a head and shoulders top here, with the right shoulder being made now. But the fact that I'm seeing this talked about so much leads me to believe that it won't happen. Whenever the majority believe something about the market it rarely comes to pass. We'll know in the coming days. I'm still going to look for new all time highs for the S&P before expiration. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A bounce in tech stocks led to a rally today but the Dow only added 30 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around and I think that it will be successful. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. It gained over 450 points. Interest rates retreated and that was the excuse for the rally. Although I didn't get any SPY March calls I'm still looking at this idea as the next trade. Today the S&P 500 made it above a short term resistance line that has been in effect since mid-February. However it could not hold the gain and closed back below it. Volume, although heavy, still wasn't as good as it's been lately. So there may be another dip lower here to give us the chance to try the SPY March call trade. We'll see in the coming days. GE stalled today and was off 1/8 on good volume. Gold soared as the US dollar dipped. The gold futures climbed over thirty bucks. The XAU was up 3 points, while GDX rose 7/8. Volume was average. The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have turned up. I am however still waiting for the GDX April calls as the next trade here. If it turns out that a sustained move higher for the gold shares starts here, then I've missed it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but did close back above its 50 day moving average. The indicaters here have turned lower and have plenty of room to go before getting oversold. It is another eason to remain bullish here for stocks. On the flip side the bounce in the NASDAQ today out of the blue could be worrisome if we don't see some more near term upside. The NASDAQ has led the way down and sometimes in down markets you get moves like today out of the blue that are just oversold bounces. I don't think that's the case here but we'll be keeping an eye on it. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight as the recent drop in stock prices around the world comes to a halt. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It's getting a bit mixed up here as the Dow climbed 306 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The Dow hit a new intra-day high today but both the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were down. The TRAN set a new all time high so the Dow theory is intact. However with the small stocks being the laggards, it isn't all that positive in my view. I'm not sure if purchasing some SPY March calls on weakness tomorrow is the right idea but I still might give it a try. Less than 2 weeks to go in the March option cycle. Money has obviously been moving from the tech sector to the old industrials for whatever reason. I'm not getting a clear technical signal either way for the S&P. I'll check things over again tonight. GE continues to climb as it gained 1/2 on pretty heavy volume. Gold sank as the US dollar continues its rally. The precious metal futures lost twenty bucks. The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX dropped 3/8. Volume was very light. The gold shares continue to hold up rather well despite the losses in gold. This is usually a bullish sign. I am looking at the GDX April calls. GDX seems to be putting in a base at the 31 level. We'll see if it holds. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a rise in the Dow. It did follow the overall market though. The short term technical indicators here are mid-range but it's my guess that the VIX will drop from here and we'll see the overall market pick up. Just a guess though as the technical picture isn't 100% clear. Rates continue to climb but they are short term overbought and staying that way. It won't last forever. I'll have to look things over again tonight and go from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow soared today as it gained 570 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We had some early selling but the market turned things around. The jobs report came in better than expected. I'm sure that some of the volume today was short covering as I am now guessing that the decline is over. The S&P 500 now shows a hammer on its daily candlestick chart and also closed back above its 50 day moving average. The McClellan oscillator has put in a double bottom. I'll be looking to purchase some SPY March calls on weakness early next week if we get any selling. We now also have a hammer on the NASDAQ daily chart. I'll go out on a limb and say that we'll see new all time highs for the S&P by option expiration on the 19th. The short term indicators for the S&P are starting to turn back up. GE was barely higher on good volume. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well. The XAU rose almost 3 points, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was lighter here. The gold shares trended sideways this week and you can certainly make a case for trying the calls here. But I am more inclined to wait for the April option cycle here. I'll consider the options over the weekend. The VIX was sharply lower today and the short term technical indicators have rolled back over. Not even close to being oversold here and it is one of the reasons that I'm turning bullish. Now if we were to see a give back of all the gains made today on Monday, I might have to change my tune. But I don't think that will happen although I'm hoping for some selling only to get in a long position. If we simply continue higher then the opportunity will have been missed most likely. There is also a chance that the S&P is forming a head and shoulders top, with the right shoulder beginning to be made right now. That is a longshot in my view but we'll keep an eye on it. I still feel good about higher prices from here going forward. It looks like interest rates are forming a near term top as well. Plenty of charts and information to go over this weekend. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower we go as the Dow fell 346 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It could have been worse as we were off about twice that intra-day. Oversold for the major averages and below the lower Bollinger bands. The S&P 500 could not hold its 50 day moving average. It seems a bit stretched to the downside here to me, so a bounce is in the cards soon. But where we are heading is the main question. The NASDAQ has led the way lower and is already off over 10%. I don't think that we're headed for an extended downturn but I certainly can't say that for sure. The rise in rates is the excuse and they were higher today. The Fed chairman spoke but it did not appease the market. We'll see how things go with the employment report tomorrow. GE bucked the trend again with a gain of 1/8 on very heavy volume. Gold fell and closed below $1700. The precious metal futures dropped over a dozen. The US dollar had a strong day. The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX was flat. Volume was good. The gold shares have held up rather well despite the drop in the metal recently. I would like to try the GDX calls again as it remains oversold and appears to be trying to form a base. I did place another order for the March calls last night but canceled it during the session today. I'll consider it again tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked above 30 today but then fell back. The short term indicators here turned back up but are not yet overbought. Ideally I'd like to see a reading between 35 and 40 to let me know the decline is over. The market rarely cooperates. It's possible that we see a rally in stocks tomorrow and the VIX rolls back over. The only thing that we can say with reason is that volatility has picked up and the recent daily uptrend lines in the indices have been broken. Where we go from here is the main question. I'll look over things again tonight and try to come up with an answer. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We continue to see the market deteriorate as the Dow fell 121 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative once again but not as much as expected considering the overall market weakness. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ continuing to lead the way lower. The NASDAQ is now clearly below its 50 day moving average and implies even lower prices going forward. I'm back to being cautious as my thesis that things would turn around here and head higher was wrong. I've been leaning to the bullish side but the market has proven that to be incorrect. The Dow is holding up here but the S&P 500 closed back at its 50 day moving average. Another day like today and that area of support will be violated as well. We are getting close to the lower Bollinger band for the S&P and perhaps that will keep things in check. Still waiting on Fridays jobs numbers for the next excuse to buy or sell. GE bucked the trend and was up 1/2 on very good volume. Gold was off over $20 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU shed 3 points, while GDX lost 5/8. Volume picked up to the downside. The gold shares did finish off of their worst levels of the session. I am still looking at the GDX March calls but trying to remain patient. The gold shares have been acting better than gold itself and that is a positive. They are oversold on both a short and medium term basis. The trouble is that the fundamentals don't favor gold at the moment nor does the seasonality. The recent ramp up in interest rates has provided headwinds for stocks and that applies to gold as well. Though rates remain overbought there is nothing that says they can't simply stay that way. It seems to me that gold is trying to hang in here at the $1700 level and if it does there should be a tradeable rally in the short term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a spike today and closed above its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators for the VIX remain close to mid-range but if they turn back up we could see a significant decline. I'm not saying that will happen but it could. We're also almost to the top of the Bollinger bands for the VIX here. Europe and Asia were both higher last night. We'll see if they follow the US lower on Thursday. I'll be keeping an eye on the overnight developments.

No upside follow through to yesterdays terrific gains as the Dow lost 144 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading lower. It was a back and forth session with the bears taking control in the final hour. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The Bollinger bands for the S&P 500 are starting to get closer. The short term technical indicators are now mid-range. I'm still giving the benfit of the doubt to the bulls for now. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 4 1/2, while GDX rose a point. Volume was average. I did place an open order for some GDX March calls overnight but it wasn't filled. The techncial indicators had gotten to the point to give the calls there another try. Now that we've bounced I'm not sure whether to chase things here or not. I think that the April GDX calls would be a better idea at some point this month. We'll just have to take it day to day and see what plays out with regards to the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only up slightly today as it hangs around the 50 day moving average. The 50 day moving average has held things in check for the major stock averages so far. I'm expecting it to hold. I am however keeping a close watch on the NASDAQ, as it is back to its 50 day moving average and has been leading the way lower. I'm not getting a good feel on what's happening with the stock market at the moment. I am still bullish though unless we start breaking those 50 day moving averages. The economic data has been coming out a little better than where expceted so far this week. All eyes will be on the employment report due out on Friday. Asia was lower and Europe a bit higher in lst nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The market blasted off to the upside as the Dow gained 603 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Oversold bounce? Start of the month money flow? Or the beginning of a sustained move higher? These are the questions that will find answers in the coming days. Unless we head back down hard tomorrow, I'm once again inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. 50 day moving averages have held for the major indices. Many of the short term technical indicators are bouncing back from being oversold. But with the recent extreme volatility that we've seen, anything is possible. I'm still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. GE was up over 1/2 on average volume. Gold opened higher but the futures fell back for a loss of $7. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on what passes for average volume these days. Oversold all the way around for the gold shares. March is not usually a good month for gold so I am trying to not purchase the GDX calls here. That said, the indicators for GDX are in the buy zone on multiple time frames. If a trade was to be made here it would have to be on a short term basis. The fundamentals for gold remain negative at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped hard today and the indicators here have more room to go lower. That supports a bullish thesis on things going forward. The VIX also closed back below its 50 day moving average. So perhaps the fears generated by the spike in interest rates is already over. You can certainly make a case for that. Markets go where they want though and I'll see what happens tomorrow before deciding on a plan of action. But todays price action will certainly have the bears on the run. Europe and Asia were higher as we got buying of stocks around the world. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.