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Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Lower for the Dow today as it fell 127 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The overall market was better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ positive. A positive day for the S&P today would have set us up for the SPY march puts tomorrow. Now that trade isn't as easy. I'll have to see what the price action is early on and take it from there. We are short term overbought on the S&P but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. GE was off twenty cents on lighter volume. Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed. A waiting game on the Fed tomorrow. The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/8. Volume was pretty light. Waiting for a set up to try the April GDX calls. May or may not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX barely closed below the twenty level today but the just is still out on whether we make it through there or not. A positive day tomorrow would probably do it and set the stage for much higher prices going forward. We did see some cracks in the wall today though with both the TRAN and the Russell 2000 lower. I don't know if that means anything or not yet. I'm still bullish in the longer term for stocks. Just trying to figure out if a short term SPY put trade tomorrow is worth the risk. We'll see. All eyes and ears on the Fed, with the markets reaction to whatever happens being the key. Three days left in the March option cycle. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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