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Monday, March 01, 2021

The market blasted off to the upside as the Dow gained 603 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Oversold bounce? Start of the month money flow? Or the beginning of a sustained move higher? These are the questions that will find answers in the coming days. Unless we head back down hard tomorrow, I'm once again inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. 50 day moving averages have held for the major indices. Many of the short term technical indicators are bouncing back from being oversold. But with the recent extreme volatility that we've seen, anything is possible. I'm still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. GE was up over 1/2 on average volume. Gold opened higher but the futures fell back for a loss of $7. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on what passes for average volume these days. Oversold all the way around for the gold shares. March is not usually a good month for gold so I am trying to not purchase the GDX calls here. That said, the indicators for GDX are in the buy zone on multiple time frames. If a trade was to be made here it would have to be on a short term basis. The fundamentals for gold remain negative at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped hard today and the indicators here have more room to go lower. That supports a bullish thesis on things going forward. The VIX also closed back below its 50 day moving average. So perhaps the fears generated by the spike in interest rates is already over. You can certainly make a case for that. Markets go where they want though and I'll see what happens tomorrow before deciding on a plan of action. But todays price action will certainly have the bears on the run. Europe and Asia were higher as we got buying of stocks around the world. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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