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Monday, March 15, 2021

The march higher continues as the Dow gained 174 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Overall the broader market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. There is no overhead resistance as the Dow along with the S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. Everything seems to be pointing up as there are no sellers. We are now short term overbought. I'm thinking of perhaps trying the SPY March puts if we continue higher into Wednesday for the Fed meeting. It would be quite a risky trade with less than 3 days to go. However if we do just rise from here I'll probably give it a try. GE bounced back 3/4 on heavy volume. The reverse stock split that was announced last week caused the huge drop off. It hasn't been voted on yet but I'm not a fan of the reverse split. It is never a really positive event in my mind. Gold was up about ten bucks on the futures, while the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was light. Getting overbought now for the gold shares. I would like to try the GDX April calls if the opportunity presents itself. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell today and is right at the important 20 level. We are short term oversold on the VIX. The 20 level has held things for the VIX for the past year or so. A break below this level would imply that the rally is going to go longer and higher than is currently thought. If we can't get through there, a pause or decline should occur. So we'll see where we go from here. Retail sales out tomorrow but we're waiting on what the Fed has to say on Wednesday afternoon. Asia was higher with the exception of China, while Europe was slightly lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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