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Monday, March 08, 2021

It's getting a bit mixed up here as the Dow climbed 306 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The Dow hit a new intra-day high today but both the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were down. The TRAN set a new all time high so the Dow theory is intact. However with the small stocks being the laggards, it isn't all that positive in my view. I'm not sure if purchasing some SPY March calls on weakness tomorrow is the right idea but I still might give it a try. Less than 2 weeks to go in the March option cycle. Money has obviously been moving from the tech sector to the old industrials for whatever reason. I'm not getting a clear technical signal either way for the S&P. I'll check things over again tonight. GE continues to climb as it gained 1/2 on pretty heavy volume. Gold sank as the US dollar continues its rally. The precious metal futures lost twenty bucks. The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX dropped 3/8. Volume was very light. The gold shares continue to hold up rather well despite the losses in gold. This is usually a bullish sign. I am looking at the GDX April calls. GDX seems to be putting in a base at the 31 level. We'll see if it holds. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a rise in the Dow. It did follow the overall market though. The short term technical indicators here are mid-range but it's my guess that the VIX will drop from here and we'll see the overall market pick up. Just a guess though as the technical picture isn't 100% clear. Rates continue to climb but they are short term overbought and staying that way. It won't last forever. I'll have to look things over again tonight and go from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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