Tuesday, March 30, 2021
Lower today as the market is still trying to make up its mind on what to do here. The Dow fell 104 points on lighter than lately volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is back to trending sideways. The Dow opened lower, bounced around for the day and ended with a loss. This is considered a holiday week with the markets being closed on Friday. We also have the end of the month and quarter tomorrow. So perhaps traders are just stepping aside here until next week. The S&P 500 remains overbought and on the cusp of new all time highs. I'm still looking for it to get to the 4000 level soon. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was up over 1/3 on light volume. Gold continued to fall and the futures dropped almost thirty bucks. It's now back below the $1700 level. $1680 needs to hold or gold will be heading lower from here. The US dollar continues to rally. The XAU fell 4 1/8, while GDX shed a point. Volume was average. My open order for the GDX April calls got filled. They closed about where I bought them. Not completely oversold for GDX so we could see more weakness tomorrow. If $1680 doesn't hold for gold this trade will be a loser. If it does hold then a double bottom would be in place for gold and the trade will have a chance. I have liked the way the gold shares have held up recently and this idea has a little over two weeks to work. The market will go where it wants though regardless of anyones trades. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below the 20 level. That doesn't fit with a down market. Not sure what it means and the VIX remains in a sideways consolidation. Interest rates pulled back during the session after moving much higher overnight. Perhaps the rally in rates is due for a pause. That's a guess as usual but the short term technical indicators there remain overbought. Not sure what to expect with the end of the month tomorrow and then the jobs report due out when the market is closed on Friday. I'll probably just sit tight with the latest GDX trade until next week unless we go into freefall from here with gold. Anything's possible in this game. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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