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Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Back to the upside for the Dow as it climbed 189 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Fed came and went. The market liked whatever it heard, which was nothing unexpected. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500 however there is no overhead resistance and we're still in options expiration week. I'm not considering the SPY March puts anymore with only 2 days left to trade them. I'll start looking out to April for the next SPY trade. GE was up almost 1/2 on light volume. Gold found a bid with the dovish Fed as the futures were up a dozen. The US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 3 3/4, while GDX rose 3/4. Volume was average. Another missed trade here as I was not expecting March to be gold positive. I do still plan on getting some April GDX calls here if we get some kind of pullback in the gold shares. The weekly candlestick chart is bullish and the indicators there have plenty of room to go higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has now decidedly closed below the 20 level. This implies much higher stock prices going forward as the rally lives on. Longer term you now must be bullish unless we get a quick move back up in the VIX. It is short term overbought but can stay that way when the market is moving higher. It looks like the 10% correction in the NASDAQ is all we're going to get and it's up, up and away from here. Weakness can be bought in my opinion. The jump in interest rates is probably over for now as well. Extremely short term overbought there now. Perhaps a drop there in the coming days will spur the SPY to the 400 level. Just a guess on my part. Europe was lower and Asia mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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