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Friday, March 05, 2021

The Dow soared today as it gained 570 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We had some early selling but the market turned things around. The jobs report came in better than expected. I'm sure that some of the volume today was short covering as I am now guessing that the decline is over. The S&P 500 now shows a hammer on its daily candlestick chart and also closed back above its 50 day moving average. The McClellan oscillator has put in a double bottom. I'll be looking to purchase some SPY March calls on weakness early next week if we get any selling. We now also have a hammer on the NASDAQ daily chart. I'll go out on a limb and say that we'll see new all time highs for the S&P by option expiration on the 19th. The short term indicators for the S&P are starting to turn back up. GE was barely higher on good volume. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well. The XAU rose almost 3 points, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was lighter here. The gold shares trended sideways this week and you can certainly make a case for trying the calls here. But I am more inclined to wait for the April option cycle here. I'll consider the options over the weekend. The VIX was sharply lower today and the short term technical indicators have rolled back over. Not even close to being oversold here and it is one of the reasons that I'm turning bullish. Now if we were to see a give back of all the gains made today on Monday, I might have to change my tune. But I don't think that will happen although I'm hoping for some selling only to get in a long position. If we simply continue higher then the opportunity will have been missed most likely. There is also a chance that the S&P is forming a head and shoulders top, with the right shoulder beginning to be made right now. That is a longshot in my view but we'll keep an eye on it. I still feel good about higher prices from here going forward. It looks like interest rates are forming a near term top as well. Plenty of charts and information to go over this weekend. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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