Thursday, March 25, 2021
Today we had a one day reversal back to the upside as the Dow gained 199 points on pretty good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The Dow was stronger than the overall market. I'm not exactly sure of what to make of the market action here lately. The S&P 500 did hold its 50 day moving average today. The short term technical indicators here are now mid-range which suggests things could go either way. Perhaps the selling is done for now but we can't be sure. The summation index is still moving down and I don't want to go against that. We'll see what happens tomorrow to finish off the week and go from there. GE was up 1/3 and the volume was better. Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. My open order for the GDX April calls remains out there. Not completely oversold on GDX just yet. May or may not get there. I'm still trying to figure out if this trade is worth taking the risk. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed below the 20 level once again today. This indicator shows the most promise for the bulls as it climbed all the way up to the 50 day moving average today and was repelled. Any follow through lower tomorrow would be a plus for the upside in stocks. We'll simply have to wait and see. Then again we might just be in a sideways market for a while. Basically the market is trying to make up its mind what to do here. When in doubt, stay out. I'm on the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY. However I'm not as cautious as earlier this week after todays price action. Europe and Asia were slightly higher as foreign markets try to stop the recent slide there. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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