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Wednesday, March 24, 2021

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index only fell 3 points but was up over 350 points this morning. Volume was pretty good and picked up heading to the downside. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving lower. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. This, despite a drop in interest rates. I'm not exactly sure what we're dealing with here but caution is advised for now. The S&P 500 is heading towards its 50 day moving average and we'll see if that can hold things up. GE was off over 1/8 on average volume for lately. I mention GE because I did buy it a couple of years ago and just sold it recently. It wasn't exactly a trade, considering the time it was held. The profit was good for holding it that long, around 80%. However I was looking to hold on to it longer and reap better gains. But the announcement of a reverse stock split means head for the exits in my experience. Gold rose $7 today and the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX dropped 1/3. Volume was light. I did place an order for the GDX April calls overnight but it wasn't filled today. I'm leaving it out there. With gold higher and the gold shares lower that really isn't a good sign for the bulls. The short term indicators for GDX also have room to go lower. I'll reconsider this trade tonight when going over the charts. If the overall market continues to drop it will probably take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and remians above 20. The technical indicators here have barely turned around and the VIX remains short term oversold. Not sure where it goes from here. If it just meanders around the 20 level, the market will probably just move sideways. If it starts to spike higher then we'll see a pretty good sell off. We'll have to wait and see what the market has in store for us. I don't have any SPY trade set ups at the moment. I would still recommend caution for now. There's plenty of time left in the April option cycle. Europe and Asia were mostly lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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