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Friday, March 19, 2021

Another mixed bag on expiration Friday as the Dow fell 232 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ up almost 100 points. The market is trying to make up its mind here on what to do next. I'm back to looking for new all time highs in the indices. If the overall market would have tanked today it would be a different story. But it didn't and the stall in prices here now seems like just a pause on the way to higher prices. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500 but not drastically so. I think that we'll go higher next week. GE was flat on the session and the volume was light. Gold continues to act well, the futures were up $7. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. GDX remains below its 50 day moving average. Any weakness here can be bought in my opinion and I'm still hoping for some type of pullback to purchase the GDX April calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around during the session but finished above the 20 level. Still short term oversold here. I'm not exactly sure what to expect from this indicator going forward. We are moving on to the April option cycle and the premiums will be high. I'll be waiting on some kind of legitimate signal before executing the next trade in the SPY. We are still in a positive seasonal period for stocks. Equities have also continued to rise despite the back up in interest rates. So we really have to remain with a bullish tone for now. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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