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Thursday, March 18, 2021

Well it looks like everything that I said yesterday has been negated by todays sour price action. The Dow fell 153 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now stalling here. The overall market fared much worse than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and have plenty of room to move down. My thesis on rates being done with their rise was incorrect as they hit new recent highs today. Very overbought and staying that way for interest rates at the moment. Sure the SPY March puts would have worked today but who would attempt that trade with only two days left? That kind of short term deal has been proven to not be in my wheelhouse. This could simply be just a one day wonder and we'll know more after tomorrows price action. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was light. Gold dropped a dozen on the April futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU fell almost 3 points, while GDX lost 5/8. Volume was light. Short term overbought for the gold shares here. If we do get a pullback I'll be looking to try the GDX April calls. The gold shares have acted reasonably well here lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher today and finished well above the 20 level. This changes the picture here unless we see a sharp drop back below 20 tomorrow. The break of 20 this week could simply have been a false move depending on what happens from here. The short term indicators for the VIX have turned back up but it still remains oversold. Tomorrow will be a telling session for the market even though things could get skewed with the option expiration. My idea of up, up and away from here for stocks could be wrong. Europe and Asia were generally up on the overnight session. We'll see if they follow the US lower tonight. Option expiration tomorrow.

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