Stock markets continued lower today as the Dow fell 464 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. Oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. Todays price action takes us through the neckline of the head and shoulders top. Things would have to turn around immediately to save us from a pretty nasty drop from these levels. When a market is oversold and stays that way it always means trouble. We should have at least seen some kind of bounce recently but it hasn't happened. 3800 or lower is the measuring objective of the head and shoulders. The retest of Januarys lows is about to fail. Gold was up around five bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX rose almost 2/3. Volume was average. The gold shares continue to attract money despite being overbought. I'm still looking at the GDX March calls but cannot bring myself to buy them when they are so overbought. Still remaining patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today as yesterdays black candlestick on the daily chart did not turn things around. Almost completely short term overbought here. The VIX closed above the 30 level as volatility is here to stay. We also have the summation index in negative territory and moving lower. Interesting times indeed. We'll need to see some kind of market stabalization tomorrow or things will get ugly to the downside fast. With the current geo-political problems and the prospect of higher interest rates it will be tough for the market to sustain anything to the upside. Probably the most we can hope for is not an all out collapse near term. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More selling to begin the week as the Dow fell 482 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. Stocks did finish up from their lows of the session. It looks like this is a retest of the lows from the end of January and so far things have held up. The bulls need to show up here or the measuring objective of the head and shoulders top on the S&P 500 is the 3800 area or lower. Ideally I'd like to see things hold here, a light volume rally back to the down trend line and that would set us up for the March SPY puts. The premiums on the puts now are inflated due to the time left and the current volatility. Russia vs. Ukraine is still dominating the headlines but this won't go on forever. The S&P 500 remains below its 200 day moving average but is short term oversold. Any sign of something that avoids an all out war should spur a rally. Gold finished up only a buck after being higher early on. The US dollar and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU fell a couple points, while GDX shed over 1/3. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought and I'm trying to remain patient here before attempting the calls again. Gold has had a good run and some kind of move lower or consolidation is due in my opinion. However we have seen money come into the precious metals and I believe that they have more room to go on the upside longer term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but there is a black candlestick on the daily chart which could turn the VIX lower in the near term. The short term technical indicators here are still pointing up though. So this indicator is giving mixed signals. The NASDAQ didn't lead the way down today and that's a slight plus. We're at an important juncture for the market right now so paying close attention is necessary even more than usual. Asia was lower but Europe finished mixed. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow fell 232 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold but not completely so. We'll try and remain patient and wait for prices to get back to the down trend line that has been in place since the beginning of January. There are also potential head and shoulders patterns on some of the major stock index daily charts. The problem there is when everybody sees the same thing, it usually doesn't happen. Gold treaded water today after being lower early on. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU was off 1 3/8, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average. Remaining short term overbought for GDX. GDX is due to take a break and we'll wait for that before trying the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today despite a down market. That doesn't fit the normal pattern. Not sure what to make of it. Still above the 20 level on the VIX so volatilty in in the forefront. The S&P 500 closed the week below its 200 day moving average. The weekly chart has price almost at the lower Bollinger band. The indicators here are oversold but have room to move lower. Monday is a holiday in the US. Waiting for Russia to invade the Ukraine seems to be roiling the markets. I don't expect that to happen but who knows? The market is also hostage to higher interest rates and inflation for now. We recognize that money is flowing into gold and will try and take advantage of that situation. We also see that the game has changed as stock market rallies are now for selling. I'll try to keep these things in mind going forward. An extra day of rest this weekend and it is welcomed. Plenty of work to do as usual. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 622 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. More geo-political tensions as the Ukraine situation continues to be in the headlines. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is negative. The S&P 500 is back below its 200 day moving average and the short term indicators have rolled back over. I had thought we'd see some gains going into tomorrows expiration but that guess was wrong. We'll stick with the technicals when it comes to trading. Long weekend ahead and I don't expect anybody to be buying now ahead of it. I'll remain on the sidelines for now. Gold is moving straight up on the prospect of war. Getting ahead of itself in my humble opinion but you cannot argue with price. We hit $1900 today as the futures gained thirty bucks. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates dropped. The XAU soared 4 points, while GDX was up 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX is now pretty far away from its 50 day moving average and also short term overbought. That doesn't mean that it won't go higher but we'll wait for some type of pullback before thinking about the calls here. There is a longer term down trend line at the 36 level that should stop things if we get there. Money is definately moving into gold and the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around today and if it continues we'll see lower stock prices near term. There is room on the short term indicators to move up and we are not overbought here yet. Down trend lines continue to rule the daily stock index charts. Perhaps we're on our way to retest the recent lows in the S&P. We'll have to wait and see if they hold. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

A mixed bag type of session as the market tried to figure out where it wants to go. The Dow fell 54 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive though. The summation index is tracking sideways. Retail sales were better than expected but the market sold off. The Fed minutes gave things a boost later in the day. The Dow and NASDAQ finished in the red, with the S&P 500 showing a small gain. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. So we could go either way here but I do think the market will head higher into option expiration. That's a guess as usual. Gold was up $15 on the futures as the rally continues. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX climbed another point. Volume remains good here. Barrick Gold, the second largest gold producer, announced a billion dollar buyback today. Three days before the February option expiration. Coincidence? I'll let you decide. Short term overbought for GDX and I was looking at the February puts here for a short term trade. But the risk is plenty with only two days left. The better trade is probably waiting for a pullback in GDX to try the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but still above the important 20 level. The technicals here are also mid-range. Really no point in guessing here, I'll just try and wait for a valid signal either way. The down trend line for the S&P 500 is still in charge. We've got a long weekend ahead with the Presidents holiday on Monday. So patience is advised for now. Europe was lower and Asia higher in last evenings trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got a bounce today as it now appears that the so called conflict in the Ukraine is not going to happen. The Dow climbed 422 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways as it cannot make up its mind where to go. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The inflation data was stronger than expected but the market shrugged it off. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. Perhaps we'll see the usual positive bias going into the expiration on Friday. We'll get the Fed minutes tomorrow and that has the potential to be a market mover. Too late for any SPY February option cycle trades for me at this point. Gold fell on the prospect of peace as the futures dropped $15. The US dollar fell as well but interest rates continued higher. The gold shares sold off early but made their way back. The XAU shed about 1 1/2 and GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was good. Still short term overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today as the daily candlestick chart pattern there proved to be correct. The short term indicators here have turned back down. This implies that we'll see more gains for stocks. So for now we'll wait for the prices on the S&P to get back to the down trend line and decide what to do when they get there. That would be the area to try the SPY puts again but premiums will be high as we roll into the March option cycle. For now we'll just wait and see. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The market is trying to figure out what to do here as the Dow fell 172 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to move lower. The Dow was the underperformer today. The S&P remains below its 200 day moving average but the short term indicators are trying to turn back up here. Inflation data out tomorrow will be the primary market mover. 4 days to go in the February option cycle and I'm leaning towards maybe trying the SPY calls. Gold continued its run higher as the futures gained thirty dollars. The US dollar was up, joining in the flight to safety trade. Bonds however did not take part as interest rates rose. The XAU added 2 1/4, while GDX was up 2/3. Volume was good. Money is finding a home in gold but we are now short term overbought. We will have to wait for GDX to get back to oversold before trying the calls here again. This a move that we missed after trying the calls in the January option cycle. I am a believer here now though and will not hesitate to try the calls when the time appears to be right. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up above 30 again today. The short term indicators continue to move higher and imply more selling. However the daily candlestick chart here indicates that a turnaround is possible right away. I'm not sure exactly what to think but if we have conflicting technicals it's better to wait until the majority line up one way or the other. Probably the prudent thing to do here is let the February option cycle pass and get ready for March. I sold the SPY February puts too early and missed the GDX calls for this month. Perhaps the sidelines is where I'll stay for now. But we'll see. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow.

Geopolitical tensions were the excuse for todays market action as the Dow fell another 500+ points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still in a sideways band. It remains in negative territory and that is unusual. A report surfaced today from the US that Russia will stage an attack on the Ukraine next week. As if the US knows what plans the Russians have for an invasion. The NASDAQ led the way down again. The S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average. The down trend line that began in the beginning of January remains in effect. The short term technical indicators here have rolled over and have room to go lower. Sure wish I still had those SPY February puts. The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P looks negative. Option expiration week on tap and I wouldn't chase anything here. Gold soared as the flight to safety trade took over for today. The precious metal futures rose over twenty five bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped as bonds became a haven. The XAU jumped 6 2/3, whike GDX gained 1 3/4. Volume was heavy. It was a complete reversal from yesterdays price action here. I did put in an order for some GDX February calls but it never came close to being filled. I was too slow to react as the move in the gold shares caught fire. Getting short term overbought now for the gold shares but there is a little room for the indicators to go higher. But what happens if there is no invasion next week? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked again but did finish off of its best level of the day. It was up over 30. There's plenty of room on the short term indicators here to go higher. If the indicators do continue up we'll see quite a drop in stock prices next week. I'm not so sure that will happen but the potential is there. Volatility rules for now. There will be some opportunities next week with options expiration but you'll have to be pretty nimble. I'll go over the charts this weekend and try to come up with something. However the risk will be elevated with not a lot of time left and inflated option premiums. Hopefully I'll be up for the challenge. Europe and Asia were lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers took over the day as the Dow fell 526 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. The inflation data came in a bit worse than expected. We sold off early, made it all the way back to unchanged and then fell apart. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought on some of the indicators despite todays drop. The NASDAQ was the leader to the downside. I sold the SPY February puts that I purchased yesterday early in todays session for a 40% gain. It proved to be the wrong move as they were worth much more by the close. This trade had a good entry and a lousy exit. I may consider trying the puts again next week ahead of the wholesale inflation data. Gold dropped $9 on the futures. The US dollar bounced around but finished higher. Interest rates climbed again with the ten year treasury now north of 2%. The XAU fell 3 1/3, while GDX lost 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. I'm still considering the GDX February calls but there's only six days left in the February option cycle. However I could also make the case for sitting out until there is a better technical entry point. Mentally I'm a bit disappointed for getting out of the SPY put trade so early. But at the time it looked like the early stock decline was not going to hold. But it did and ended up going lower. That trade is over and must be put behind as the markets will keep moving. Other opportunites will follow. The VIX spiked higher as the 20 level held. It is back above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators for the VIX have turned back up. If the indicators continue higher, the VIX will climb and the market will fall. I'm not quite that sure that will be the case this time around but we'll see as time goes forward. We do still have a down trend line that remains in effect for the S&P and other indices as well. Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see if we get any downside follow through and close out the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow soared 305 points on good volume. The adance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned higher again. The NASDAQ led the way today and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 has just slightly broken through the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of the year. It is short term overbought. I went back and forth about trying the SPY February puts ahead of tomorrows inflation data. However I did leave my order out there and it did get filled. It is showing a small loss. The stop loss order is in. If we get some early selling tomorrow I'll be out because the tone of the market has changed and there is much too much bearishness out there. Also the summation index needs to start moving back up as it is in negative territory. It usually does not stay there unless we're in a bear market. Gold was up another six bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower while interest rates were steady. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Waiting on tomorrows inflation data. The light volume leads me to believe that there's still a lack of interest here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and is right at the 20 level. It is short term oversold. Tomorrows movement will tell us a lot. If the market is higher and the VIX drops through 20, we can say that the market decline has run its course. If the VIX bounces back up from here then volatility is not over yet. I'm banking on the latter but a case could be made either way. At any rate my position has been taken and we'll see how it goes tomorrow. Europe and Asia were both up last night as money is flowing back into stocks around the world. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

To the upside today as the Dow gained 372 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led teh way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is getting close to short term overbought. It is also getting close to the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of the year. I've put in an order for the SPY February puts that should get filled if we reach that down trend line. I'm not overly confident in this idea because the summation index needs to start moving back up. But I'm willing to give it a try if it gets filled tomorrow ahead of the inflation data on Thursday. Gold rose six bucks on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was light today. The gold shares have done well lately and there's still room on the short term technical indicators to go higher. This was a missed trade on my part but we'll see how it goes into the February expiration. If gold pulls back on the CPI on Thursday perhaps there will be a chance to try the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and finally made it through the 50 day moving average. Still above 20 though. Short term oversold here as well. If we make it through 20 then I'll be back in the bullish camp despite being oversold. If the 20 level holds then we'll see some more selling and the SPY put idea will work. It's a matter of the market deciding what it wants to do here. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Another back and forth session to begin the week as the Dow was up a point on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. It looked like we would have solid gains for the indexes but the market tanked in the final hour. That's been the pattern lately. I was hoping for some strength before the inflation data on Thursday in order to try the SPY February puts. Probably won't happen. Staying patient for now. Gold was up almost $15 on the futures. Both the US dollar and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained 4 1/4, while GDX was up 7/8. Volume was average. Looks like I'm too late for the GDX February calls. I do think that the gold shares will move higher into the option expiration at the end of next week. If the overall market decides to sell off and take the gold shares with it perhaps there will be a chance to try this trade. Otherwise I'll have to sit on the sidelines for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and has gotten short term oversold. The 50 day moving average has provided resistance for the VIX to move lower so far. It seems to me the next move for the VIX would be higher which would coincide with another market drop. Just a guess on my part. For now I'll wait and see if the S&P can make it back to the down trend line before Thursday. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

It was an up and down type of session as the market tried to make up its mind what to do. The Dow was off 21 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The jobs report came in better than expected. We were back and forth then got a decent rally only to drop in the final half hour. The NASDAQ was up over 200 points and that's a plus even though it was mostly due to Amazons earnings beat. We also didn't get any downside follow through to yesterdays debacle. The S&P 500 remains below its recent down trend line but the short term indicators are trying to turn back up. It might be worth it to try the SPY February puts if we make it back to that line but we'll see. Gold finished up a few bucks after bouncing around during the session. The US dollar finished little changed but interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I did have an order out there for the GDX February calls but canceled it before the close. Not exactly sure now what to do regarding GDX in the near term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. Still above the 50 day moving average and the 20 level. Getting short term oversold on the technical indicators. I have more questions than answers right now and that doesn't inspire much confidence for trading. Plenty to ponder over the weekend while checking out the charts. Two weeks left in the February option cycle so there's time to take on a trade. Some economic data due out next week but Thursdays inflation report will be the most watched. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

We saw selling from the start today as the market had a gap lower at the open. The Dow lost 518 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now tracking sideways. Earnings were missed will be listed as the cause for todays sell off. But the major indices had gotten back to the now in charge resistance levels and pulled back. The NASDAQ lost over 500 points and the S&P 500 over 100. So the down trend lines are in charge there for now. We'll get jobs data out tomorrow and that should be another market mover. Gold was off a few bucks today. The US dollar continues to fall and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU fell 2 1/8, while GDX dropped over 1/3. Volume was light. I did place an order for the GDX February calls but it wasn't filled. I adjusted it and am leaving it out overnight. GDX has slightly risen from its oversold condition and followed the market down today. I'm not exactly sure this trade will work but I'm willing to give it a shot with 2 weeks left in the February option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but the short term indicators have barely moved up. The 50 day moving average proved to be resistance for the VIX to move lower. Volatility remains the rule when the VIX is over 20. If the VIX continues higher here we will see quite another drop in stocks. My thinking is that perhaps the VIX will move sideways here along with the indicators before we really see the next leg down for stocks. I could be wrong and the market goes where it wants. I also see that the futures have risen after the close today so perhaps a company has come out with better than expected earnings after the bell. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow with all eyes and ears on the jobs report.

Up, up and away as the Dow rose 224 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative though. The summation index has turned back up. We got a very strong move from the extremely oversold condition for the market last week. We are now at the moment of truth as we are just about at the declining tops line for the S&P 500. We're not completely overbought here but it has been a straight line up and I do not think it will continue. I did place a couple orders for the SPY February puts today but they weren't filled. Option premiums remain elevated and that is an issue. However I'm leaving my put order out there and if we do get some upside tomorrow that would be the time to try the puts. But it may already be too late as I see the futures are selling off after the close. Gold was up another five bucks today. The US dollar continues to drop and interest rates remain steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. GDX has stalled at its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher despite the gains today which doesn't fit. It's hanging around its 50 day moving average and still above the important 20 level. As long as it remains above 20 we can expect volatility to continue. Hopefully I'll get a chance for the SPY February puts ahead of the employment report on Friday. Asia was up and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 273 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has stopped going down. It is only a matter of time before it starts to move higher. The Dow was the leader today but the 3 major indices had nice gains. The short term indicators for the S&P are moving up. We now have a down trend line there that comes in at around 4600. That would be the spot to try the SPY February puts. If we get there before Friday, that will most likely be the next trade. Will we just keep moving up to new all time highs? I don't think so but I've been quite wrong before. Gold was up five bucks today. The US dollar continued lower and interest rates were a touch higher. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. I'm still considering the GDX February calls but would like to see a trip back down to the 29 level. Probably won't happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is heading lower and closed at its 50 day moving average. Not yet short term oversold here. Still above 20 though. If we can get below there I'll have more confidence in the rally. The VIX has been correct in projecting higher near term stock prices. It also helped that the market was extremely oversold. But the question is where do we go from here? My guess is that the jobs report on Friday has the potential to be a big mover. But we still have two days to go before that. Europe and what was open in Asia were up last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More gains for the last trading day in January as the Dow climbed 406 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving down but is trying to turn back up here. It most likely will be successful. The decline has ended for now and has the possibility of being the low for the year. But probably not as there is still most of 2022 left. The NASDAQ led the way with a sharp gain and that's a positive. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are at mid-range. I'm sure we'll see some selling in the coming days but the 4200 level should hold for now on the S&P. The worst of the selling is over as we reached some extreme oversold levels for stocks. Again, that doesn't mean that we'll move straight up to new all time highs. Most likely sideways until the next leg either way is the likely scenario. If we get to short term overbought for the S&P, I'll be tempted to try the SPY February puts. Gold bounced back today as the futures rose a dozen. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained almost 4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was lighter than its been but not bad. I did have an order in for the GDX February calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. This looks like another missed trade but we'll have to see how the rest of the week goes. If we see some weakness in the coming sessions for the gold shares I'll give this trade a try. Might simply be wishful thinking on my part though as we are moving up from short term oversold on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is moving lower and still implies more rally to come in the near term. We're still above the 50 day moving average here and well above the 20 level. The short term indicators for the VIX are moving down and are at mid-range. More positive action for stocks seems to be in the cards according to the VIX and that would fit with the summation index turning back up from a very low and negative reading. As we move forward the market action should tell us whether what we just witnessed was simply a correction or the beginning of a bear market. We'll know as time goes on. Europe was higher along with what was open in Asia overnight. Some Asian markets are closed for the Chinese new year. We'll keep an eye on the evenings headlines.

Finally we got a day where a bounce held as the Dow gained 564 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. We were higher for much of the session but then price exploded to the upside in the final hour and a half. Some of it short covering to be sure. Apple earnings appeared to be the catalyst as perhaps things aren't so bad after all. But let's face it. The extreme oversold condition of the market was not going to last forever. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The summation index is negative which rarely happens and it will have to move back up. However I don't think that we are heading to new all time highs anytime soon. An overdue bounce is what we got today and we'll see how things go next week. The bulk of the selling for this move down is probably over. Gold was down a few bucks today but did come up from the lows of the session. The US dollar finished little changed while interest rates dropped slightly. The XAU fell a point, while GDX was off around 1/3. Volume was average. The gold shares came off of their lows as well. I did put in an order for the GDX February calls but wasn't filled. Short term oversold for GDX now so I'm willing to try the calls again here. Most likely will put in another order in the beginning of next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today as it is heading back towards its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have rolled over and implies that we'll see more price gains and less volatility moving forward. The weekly picture looks like it has put in an evening star on the candlestick chart which would fit with the short term indicators. I would be surprised to see the VIX finish next week higher but we'll have to wait and see. As of right now it appears that the S&P 500 isn't going to retest Mondays lows and the fifth wave down I was expecting isn't going to happen. But one day doesn't make a rally and in down trends it isn't unusual for a day like today to spring out of nowhere. We'll know more by the end of next week. Plenty of work to do over the weekend going over the charts. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Try and try again to bounce but I guess not yet as the Dow fell 7 points on the now normal heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. GDP came in better than expected. An early rally for the S&P 500 turned around and then into a loss for the session. It's a one day reversal to the downside. Still short and medium term oversold and staying that way. This is a rare condition but so is crossing the zero line on the summation index. So the usual market behavior doesn't apply. This too shall pass and we'll see a rally of some sorts sooner or later. The options premiums for the SPY are so inflated now that it just doesn't make sense to try and trade there at the moment. Gold got clobbered again as the futures lost another $30 to close below $1800. The US dollar was up and interest rates slipped a bit on a flight to safety. The XAU fell 3 2/3, while GDX lost almost a point. Volume was good again to the downside. Another down day here will get us to short term oversold for the gold shares. The fundamentals here are not good as a rising dollar along with higher interest rates coming puts a lid on any upside for gold. What used to be the normal buy gold when inflation shows up hasn't worked yet this time around. That said, if the market keeps dropping and the gold shares go with it I'll probably try the GDX February calls again at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with a market that fell. That doesn't fit the usual relationship. The NASDAQ led things lower again today and that's not a plus. The move lower for the S&P that began at the beginning of the month is taking the shape of a five wave down scenario. It appears that all there is left to do is take the fifth and final wave lower. If that occurs we'll head back to the 4200 level on the S&P or maybe a bit lower. That would also complete the retest of Mondays lows. That's my prognosis for where we'll be going in the next few days. However we are strongly way overdue for at least an upside day. That could happen first. Europe was higher and Asia lower last night. Some inflation data due out here tomorrow morning. We'll close out a wild week on Wall street tomorrow.

Another day of bouncing around with the Fed as the Dow fell 129 points on the continued above average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. Nothing unexpected or earth shattering from the Fed but we did sell off from nice early gains when chairman Powell spoke to the press. It wasn't the worst of times as the NASDAQ eeked out a small gain. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold but I do think that at least a temporary bottom was put in place on Monday. We've made it through the zero line on the summation index so perhaps the worst is behind us. But we don't exactly know that for sure just yet. We have bounced from Mondays lows but a retest may be in order. Being nimble is key here but I do not expect any kind of sustained rally that would take us back up to where the decline began. I could be wrong. Gold got clobbered as higher interest rates dampen the appeal for the precious metal. The gold futures shed $35. Interest rates went higher along with the US dollar. The XAU lost 4 points while GDX dropped a buck. Volume was good to the downside. I do still like the GDX calls going forward but will wait for them to get short term oversold. Might take a few more days of downside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX perked up today and remains short term overbought. It is certainly out of the ordinary for the VIX to remain overbought for an extended period of time. That is why there is still a chance that we could see another swift drop for stocks in the near future. Combined with the weakness in the summation index, the market is not out of the woods yet. Stocks also remain oversold on a short and medium term basis but haven't been able to have even a sustained bounce for a session. So caution is still advised. We'll get a look at 4th quarter GDP tomorrow and some wage inflation data on Friday. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We bounced around today after yesterdays wild ride and the Dow ended with a loss of 66 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Waiting to hear from the Fed tomorrow. I still think that a short term bottom is in place as the S&P 500 remains short term oversold. My guess is that we will rally tomorrow no matter what the Fed says because of the oversold nature of things both short and medium term for the market. But we are heading through the zero line on the summation index and falling apart is the prognosis. The early thousand point drop yesterday confirms it. So rather than guess as to what is about to occur I'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold contiued to rise as the futures gained around $7 and touched the $1850 level. The US dollar finished little changed after being higher early on. Interest rates rose. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added almost 1/4. Volume was average. The GDX call trade that I was stopped out on yesterday has made it back to break even. That is one of the problems using stops. You can be knocked out of the trade before it has a chance to work. On the flip side if you don't use stops it can end up causing you to lose more money by holding on to a position that never comes back. As was the case with the previous GDX trade at the end of last year. My goal for this year is to not take any huge losses so I guess I'll simply be at the mercy of the stops. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and is back above 30. Still overbought as well. What I'm getting from this is simply to expect more volatility. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. Option premiums are elevated and staying in cash for now isn't the worst thing to do. Except you won't make any money that way but you won't lose any either. Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trade. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow and the markets reaction to it.

Just another manic Monday as the song goes. In what was one of the crazier days on Wall street, the Dow gained 99 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher. A temporary bottom is now in place. At one point the Dow was down over a thousand points. To make all of that back and then some is incredible. Volatility went off the charts. The kind of reversal that we saw today usually means that the decline is over for now. We may come back and test todays low at some point in the future. We saw high volume panic selling today and that marks the end of going lower than todays low of around 4200 for the S&P in the near term. We are still short term oversold here but the indicators have turned back up with todays price action. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates slightly higher as well after dropping early on during the market sell off. The XAU fell 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/4 on good volume. The gold shares were down much more early along with the stock market. I was stopped out of my GDX February call position for a 40% loss. I tried to purchase these calls again at a better strike price but wasn't filled. Frustrating to say the least. GDX looks like it's put in a short term bottom here as well. I suppose that I'll wait for the Fed announcement on Wednesday before deciding where to go from here regarding the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX surged past 38 and then came all the way back to close below 30. The short term indicators here have rolled over to relieve the overbought condition. It should mean that volatility will subside but who knows? The VIX has gotten pretty far from its 50 day moving average and should at least try to head back towards it. Today we got extremely oversold during the session and the bounce back that we saw was huge. We will say that the decline is over for now. Once again 4200 should hold on the S&P 500 in the days to come. Longer term, maybe not. Such crazy volatility has increased the option premiums all the way around. I'm back on the sidelines but will be looking for the next trade opportunity. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to begin the trading week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Down we go as the decline continues. The Dow fell 450 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower and we are falling apart approaching the zero line. It doesn't appear that it will hold things up this time around. The NASDAQ is still leading the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold, staying that way and just closed below its 200 day moving average. We should have at least seen a bounce at some point this week but it didn't happen. Getting ugly and even if we see a bounce it probably won't hold. Rolling now into the February option cycle. Gold fell over ten bucks today. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates fell on a flight to safety. The XAU dropped almost 4 points, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. My open order for the GDX February calls was filled and it's already a loser. Plenty of time for this trade but with the market in what looks to be freefall, the gold shares are going along for the ride. The stop loss order is in though and another day like today will get me out. Perhaps staying on the sidelines for now is the proper course of conduct. But we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up and is almost at 30. Remaining short term overbought on the indicators. Usually the VIX doesn't stay overbought for long but it seems right now is not a usual time. Buyers have vanished. We've got the Fed next week and perhaps they'll calm the markets. Or not. Going through the zero line on the summation index to the downside is a rare event but always interesting to say the least. We're getting close to being down 10% for the S&P and perhaps that will put a temporary hold on the selling. But that's just a guess. The trend is down. Plenty to ponder over the weekend to try and figure out what to do next week. Europe and Asia sank overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market tried to bounce today and was up over 400 points in the morning. But the rally didn't hold and we fell apart in the final couple of hours. The Dow fell 313 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that continues to be a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and staying there. The next support is the 200 day moving average at around 4425. More concerning is the summation index moving lower and heading towards the zero line again. The zero line has held up recently but that won't happen every time. If we fall through there things will get ugly in a hurry and the market will simply fall apart. The way it is acting seems to be saying that will be the case. Oversold and staying there is a recipe for disastor. We'll see. Gold was off just a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX was down almost 1/2. Volume was good. My order is still out there for the GDX February calls. The problem here is that if the market collapses it will take the gold shares with it. I'll have to reassess this idea tonight. I do still think that the flight to safety trade holds water. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower early but then shot up past 25 to close the day. Short term overbought here and that condition usually doesn't last long for the VIX. Unfortuantely the way the market is acting at the moment isn't the usual conventional way. Sellers are overwhelming the buyers. The tone has changed and we have to change with it. Expiration Friday and what happens is up in the air. Interesting times. The small shares have broken down and it appears that the rest of the market is on its way. Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll see how expiration Friday goes.

Continuing lower as the Dow tried to hold on today only to drop by 339 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We did see some buying today but in the final hour sellers arrived and took control. The NASDAQ still remains the downside leader. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. I'd expect at least some kind of bounce before the end of the week. However with the summation index moving down the path of least resistance is lower. Rallies can be sold as the easy money is in the process of being removed. Unfortunately the odds now increase that things will get ugly. Hopefully we'll get a chance at the SPY February puts in the weeks to come. Gold took off to the upside today as the safe haven play is back. The gold futures jumped $30. Bot the US dollar and interest rates were a bit lower. The gold shares exploded to the upside. The XAU gained 9 1/3, while GDX rose 2 1/4. Volume was very heavy which confirms that this move is for real. I canceled the open order that I had for the GDX February calls and replaced it with another one in hopes of eventually getting filled. GDX is short term overbought but I believe this is a move worth chasing. I am definately late though. I do think that trying the February calls here is worth the risk. The markets are in the process of change and I think that gold will stand to benefit at least in the short term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved higher and is short term overbought. It usually doesn't stay that way for long so I'm expecting some kind of upside for the market before the end of this week. Not the beginning of a rally mind you, just something to relieve the selling pressure. Make no mistake, the trend is now down until further notice. Europe had a slight gain and Asia was lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the evenings developments.

A decidedly down day to start the week as the Dow fell 543 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. The NASDAQ again led the way south and that is not a good sign. The S&P 500 has just moved into short term oversold territory. The market is adjusting to the fact that there will be less liquidity. In other words there won't be as much money sloshing around to chase stocks. How long the selling lasts is anyones guess but the weekly indicators are not yet oversold. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures but held up rather well despite the negative backdrop. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off about 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light as it has been to the downside in the past 3 days here. I did place an open order for the GDX February calls although GDX is not yet short term oversold. Silver had an impressive day to the upside and gold did not drop much as it appears the safe haven factor may be coming into play. It will take more of a drop in GDX to get this order filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped above the 20 level today and the indicators are heading north. We are touching the upper Bollinger band here so perhaps things will turn around tomorrow. Or not. Support for many of the smaller stock indexes has been broken, with a trip to the 200 day moving averages in range. It is expiration week though and I would expect to see buying at some point. But it appears that the tide has turned for equities and rallies will be sold. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of China. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A mixed bag for sure today as the Dow fell 202 points to close out the week. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still drifting higher. The Dow did come up from the lows of the session as it was down 450 at one stage of the day. Retail sales were weaker than expected and that was one excuse for the decline. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains for the day. The S&P had a one day reversal to the upside as it opened lower and closed higher. It is doing its best to try and hang on here but it's now down below the 50 day moving average. We also have tops beneath tops on the daily chart here which has a down trend line in place. Perhaps if we make it back to that line we can try the SPY puts. Or maybe the line will be taken out and we'll head for new all time highs. I'm more of a believer of the former. Gold was off 5 bucks today. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. None of that fits with a weaker retail sales numbers but the market goes where it wants. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was light again to the downside. I am trying to remain patient here but I would certainly like to try the GDX February calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX reversed back lower today and closed below the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are mid-range. Not getting a good idea of what this indicator is trying to tell us now. Maybe we'll see the usual expiration week upside bias coming up. I certainly don't know and will remain on the sidelines most likely. It's a long holiday weekend on tap with plenty of work to do regarding what's going on here. I'll be going over the charts as usual to try and come up with some kind of game plan going forward. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It appears that the bounce is complete as the Dow fell 176 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 176 market would suggest. The summation index is drifting higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That's not a positive. It looks like the S&P 500 is on its way to test last weeks lows as most of the short term technical indicators have rolled over. It is probably too late to buy the SPY January puts. Could things turn around tomorrow? It's possible but we'll need some kind of excuse to be buyers ahead of the long weekend. Gold dropped five bucks but did come up from its lows. The US dollar was a bit lower as were interest rates. The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. I'm back to looking at the GDX February calls but in no hurry. The Bollinger bands are starting to contract in the precious metals complex, implying that a big move is on the way. Which way is the question but I'm leaning to the long side. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher and closed above its 50 and 200 day averages. It also finished above the 20 level. The short term indicators have turned up with room to go higher. This indicator is now saying volatilty is on the rise and prices are in decline. It fit the bill today. With only 5 days left in the January option cycle, the risk is high to take on a SPY trade. I'm pretty sure that I'll let tomorrow pass and take it from there. That seems to be the prudent path for me at the moment. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

The market continues to trudge higher as the Dow gained 38 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is turning back up. The inflation data came in high as expected but did not cause any widespread selling. If we stay higher into Friday, I may try the SPY January puts. However the short term technical indicators for the S&P are mid-range. So that may not be the best idea. But if we do make it back to short term overbought on one of my indicators I'll probably do the trade. Gold continued higher today as the futures rose eight bucks. The US dollar dropped and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX added over 1/2. Volume was average again. I canceled my open order for the GDX February calls as this trade was missed. The sharp rise in the gold shares this week makes me believe that this move up is for real. I'll be looking to attempt the GDX calls on any weakness but the ideal time to try this trade has passed. I was early on my attempt here with the last losing GDX trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower, remains short term oversold but not extremely so. Not really getting a good signal one way or the other from here. My thinking is that the 3 day rally that we've seen in stocks could stall here. We'll get more inflation data out tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. We also have a holiday weekend comng up in the US. I'll remain on the sidelines for now and wait to see how we go for the rest of the week. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Bouncing higher today as the Dow gained 183 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are turning back up. Are we heading to new all time highs again? Perhaps but I'm in a wait and see mode for now. We'll get inflation data out tomorrow and the market reaction to that will tell us a lot. Gold rallied today as the futures were up $20. The US dollar along with interest rates went down. The XAU was up 1 2/3, while GDX gained almost 2/3. Volume was average. It appears that I've missed the uptrend here for the gold shares as the indicators have turned around and are heading higher. My order for the February calls is still out there but I'll probably end up canceling it. Might try the January calls again for a short term trade if we get a near term pullback. I'm not a fan of missing moves but what can you do? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and it looks like it has room to go lower. It isn't short term oversold yet. If the market rallies tomorrow despite higher inflation and the VIX continues to go down I'll have to change my market outlook. It is never easy trying to interpret exactly what is going to happen. Running out of time in the January option cycle. Perhaps the sidelines remains the place to be for now. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Coming back from the brink today as the Dow fell 163 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. Off almost 600 points early on the markets made steady progress to the upside for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ was off 400 and made it back to positive territory. It appears that a temporary bottom has been put in place today. The market needs a break from the selling and we should see that at least for the beginning of this week. Inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was up a few bucks today. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 2 points, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was average. I did place an open order for some GDX February calls but it will take a drop to 29 to get the order filled. That may not occur as it appears that the gold shares are ready to reverse right here. But we'll see how the rest of the week plays out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a spike up only to reverse and finish the day below the important level of 20. That's another reason why it isn't out the question to see the market stage some kind of rally from here. The NASDAQ held its 200 day moving average and the Russell 2000 held its long term support. So it appears that at least a temporay bottom is in place. I'm looking for some kind of bounce and it looks like it started today. I'm expecting higher prices tomorrow. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal for a big move on Friday and today probably fills the bill although it doesn't look that way on a closing basis. Volatility has picked up. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

The selling continues but the Dow only lost 4 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that is a negative. The payroll numbers were mixed with job creation coming in lower than expected. The S&P 500 still managed to close above its 50 day moving average. I'm expecting some kind of bounce here in the next day or two. Whether or not it turns into the next leg up remains to be seen. The short term indicators here are now mid-range. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued their climb. The XAU gained a point, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was average. GDX is still not completely oversold. If it drops another point to 29, I'll try the February calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was back down today despite the drop in prices. Not exactly sure what that means. The short term indicators are rolling back over. Perhaps we are setting up for the bounce and then we'll see what happens. The NASDAQ is at its near term support and is getting short term oversold. Other stock indices have held up better but the NASDAQ is generally the leader both up and down. If it would continue to drop from here it would spell trouble. We also are not seeing the usual beginning of the year rally. It's a time for caution in my view as the weak beginning to the new year along with the rise in interest rates are not positive events. We'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend to try and develop some type of game plan for the remaining January option cycle. There will be less than 2 weeks remaining due to a holiday on the 17th. Europe was generally lower with Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow led the way lower today as it dropped 171 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index is starting to move sideways. The overall market did not drop as much as the Dow. The S&P 500 held up at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators still have room to fall but they could just as easily turn around after todays price action. We'll see how things react to the jobs report and take it from there. The gold futures lost another $10 today. Rates were steady and the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 4 1/4, while GDX lost over a point. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators here are on their way to becoming oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains below the 20 level. I get the feeling that things could go either way with the VIX from here. The fact that the market did not sell off again today makes me think that tomorrow could be a positive session for stocks. However I do not have a decent signal to trade the SPY options so I will therefore be sitting things out for now. Still a couple of weeks to go in the January option cycle. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. All eyes on the employment report tomorrow to finish off the first week of the new year.

A bout of selling today as the market did not like the tone from the Fed minutes. We had a nasty sell off with two hours to go today as the Dow fell 392 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The NASDAQ got clobbered by over 3% and led the way lower. I had expected prices to continue to rise and that scenario is now in question. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and imply that there is more selling to go. We just hit a new all time high so I don't think a protracted decline is on tap but what do I know? We'll see if we get any follow through the rest of the week or if this is just a one day wonder. Gold was up early but gave back all the gains and finished about $5 lower on the session. The US dollar was slightly lower but interest rates continued to rise. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume picked up to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over as well. I sold my position in the January GDX calls for a 90% loss. This trade was a loser from the beginning and should have been sold long ago. I also threw good money after bad and that is a cardinal sin in trading. I got what I deserved I suppose but it isn't how I wanted to start the new year. However like any other trade, win or lose it doesn't matter now and you have to move on. If GDX gets back below 29 I might try the calls again. Mentally I'm feeling a bit disappointed as losing trades do nothing to help in the confidence department. Moving forward is what's up next. The VIX climbed today with the rout and that makes perfect sense. This indicator had been extremely oversold for so long there was only one way to go but you could not tell when it would occur. The indicators here have now turned back up with plenty of room to go. The VIX closed above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Didn't close above 20 though but another day like to day will do it. I suppose I'll wait for the reaction to Fridays jobs report and take it from there. We'll see if we get any overseas selling tonight. Europe was higher and Asia mixed in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was a mixed bag today on Wall street but the Dow managed to continue to climb. The most watched index added 214 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The S&P 500 finished almost unchanged, remaining short term overbought. The NASDAQ fell over 200 points. it wasn't the broad based rally that I was expecting to begin the new year. Not sure what to expect from here but the rest of the week should be interesting. Jobs report due out on Friday. Gold bounced back as the futures were up $15. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares remain short term overbought and the slight increase today despite a decent gain in gold itself is a negative. I should have sold the GDX January calls that I still hold a long time ago. It may be preventing me from moving on to the next trade with my focus on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher today and remains extremely oversold. Not getting any signal one way or the other from here. When in doubt, stay out might apply for the time being. We'll have to wait for a decent signal in the SPY for the next trade there. Still plenty of time left in the January option cycle. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The New Year begins with a nice move to the upside as the Dow gained 246 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The Dow closed at a new all time high. Other indices to follow as the week rolls on. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high as well. Still short term overbought here and staying that way. That is a recipe for a rally and today probably starts the next leg up. The signal from the McClellan oscillator came through this time around. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Money still needs a home and is finding one with stocks. Gold got clobbered to begin the new year as the futures dropped about thirty bucks. The US dollar soared along with interest rates. These are tow of the reasons for the drop in the precious metal today. Gold did manage to hang on to the $1800 level for now. The XAU shed 2 3/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was light. My GDX January calls most likely don't have even a chance of getting back to break even. I'll be selling them this week unless we see some kind of dramatic turnaround before the end of the week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and remains extremely oversold. This too is a condition that supports the rally in stocks. The VIX has been oversold since the beginning of December. Not sure how much longer it can go. Well below the 20 level here and beneath both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Some foreign markets were closed for holiday today so price action around the world was muted. Europe was generally higher and Asia mixed. We'll look for some upside follow through tomorrow.

Another last hour bout of selling took the Dow lower again today. The most watched index lost 60 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive again despite the loss. The summation index is moving up. The major averages were all slightly lower despite but the TRAN posted a gain. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We got another signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move, the second signal in the past two days. Expect a big move when things get back to normal early next week. My guess is that we'll see a huge rally on Monday. Gold continued to climb adding another $15. The US dollar was lower while interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. GDX also remains short term overbought. My GDX January calls are still solid losers heading into the new year. Just trying to cut the loss at this point with three weeks left in the January option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower and still very oversold. This will not last forever. Not sure what to make of it. As this year draws to a close a look back at the 2021 trading year shows nothing but red ink. I had many more losing trades than normal, with hardly any winners. It was a year to forget. We'll continue to put in the effort and do the work to make 2022 successful. Europe and Asia finished mixed on the last day of trading for 2021. We'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Happy New Year!

The Dow had a one day reversal to the downside as it opened higher and closed lower. Last hour selling sent the Dow to a loss of 90 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index is moving up. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal last night for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see how things go tomorrow to close out 2021. All of the major indices were losers but not with any conviction. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. The market is simply making its way to the new year. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was up a bit and interest rates declined. The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was light. I've decided to hold on to the losing GDX January call trade into the new year. Hoping to cut the loss with three weeks remaining in the January option cycle. Short term overbought for GDX and staying that way which could mean the rally will continue here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today thanks to the final hour decline. It remains very oversold. One trading day left in the year and it should be slow. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll close out 2021 tomorrow.

It seems as though the market is just hanging around waiting for the new year to begin. The Dow gained 90 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with prices stalling for the past two sessions. The NASDAQ was slightly lower today. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold dropped $5 on the futures but were lower than that during the session.. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Still no interest in the gold shares and they remain short term overbought. I continue to hold out hope that the gold shares will have their usual rally that comes this time of the year but it hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and remains extremely short term oversold. This has lasted longer than it should but the markets as usual go where they want. I'm not sure what to make of it. Just two trading days left in 2021 and I'm sure most of the serious business has been completed. Waiting on 2022 at this point. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 95 points light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving up. Both the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were lower on the session. The S&P remains short term overbought. It's a holiday week and many of the players are at home. I do trust that this rally is for real though and I think it has legs to go higher into the beginning of next year. After that, who knows. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates were little changed again. The XAU and GDX both had fractional losses today on light volume. They remain short term overbought and they both failed at their 50 day moving averages. There remains little interest in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower yet again today and remains extremely oversold. Not sure how much to read into this with the major players on hiatus. Money still needs a home and stocks seem to be the place to go for now. No SPY trades in mind for this week but there is plenty of time to go in the January option cycle. Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Up, up and away we go as the Dow climbed 351 points on holiday week light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. New all time highs again for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought with no overhead resistance. Other indexes should follow to new highs as the days move ahead. Declines may be bought for now. Gold finished slightly lower. Both interest rates and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX were little changed as well on anemic volume. This could turn out to be a slow week for the gold shares ahead of the new year. That's a guess as usual. Still deciding whether or not to take the loss in the current GDX trade. Short term overbought for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and has gotten very oversold on the short term technical indicators. This cannot last forever. It doesn't mean that a lasting decline will follow but we cannot go straight up forever either. For now the Santa Claus/Year end rally is in force. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Santa Claus has come to town as the Dow added another 196 points today. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. The summation index is now moving up. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. I expect that other indices will follow. Overbought and staying that way for the S&P. No overhead resistance so we'll see how far we can go before the end of the year. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up a point, while GDX rose 1/8. Volume remains light here. Short term overbought for the gold shares. I'll have to decide next week whether to book the loss on the current GDX January call trade this year or carry it into 2022 with the hopes that it will get back to break even at best. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and remains oversold as the rally continues. Below the level of 20 and also beneath both the 50 and 200 day moving averages for the VIX. It is pretty much giving an all clear sign for higher stock prices. We've gone from despair to euphoria in a matter of a week and a half. A long holiday weekend is upon us. Next week should see low volume and probably higher prices. I'll be checking the charts over the next couple of days as usual. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. Merry Christmas everyone.

Continuing higher as the Dow rose 261 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning around. The battle with the zero line appears to have been won by the bulls. The Santa Claus rally is intact despite the decline on Monday. The S&P 500 looks to be heading back to new all time highs. The short term technical indicators there have turned higher. The NASDAQ led the way up today and that is a plus. The only negative is the low volume but that may be holiday related. Gold was up $15 on the futures and back above the $1800 level. The US dollar was lower and interest rates took a slight drop. The XAU was up 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. GDX is now short term overbought on some of its indicators. I would have liked to see a better gain for the gold shares today but we'll take what we can get. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed on its 200 day moving average. It is now below the important level of 20. It remains short term oversold and as long as that continues the rally will live on. Only one day left for trading this week as the holiday is almost upon us. I'd expect tomorrow to be a quiet, light volume affair around the globe. Europe and Asia were higher again last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Bouncing back today as the Dow soared 561 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to turn back around. I believe that it will turn back up as the decline has not accelerated going through the zero line so things should hold up for now. The S&P 500 closed back above its 50 day moving average. We are in a positive seasonal time frame and a collapse has probably been averted. Sideways until the new year is my best guess at the moment. Gold was down $5 on the futures. The US dollar was little changed again and interest rates rose. The XAU was up around 1 1/2, while GDX added about 1/4. Volume was light. The gold shares managed to rise again with a drop in gold. That's a plus but the light volume shows a lack of interest. Looks like I might just have to take the loss here before the new year. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 level. Still short term oversold here. Only two trading days left this week with a long holiday weekend approaching. We'll see if volatility continues or we see a holiday slow down. Europe and Asia bounced back overnight as well. We'll see how thngs go tomorrow.

Well is wasn't a complete disastor as the Dow fell 433 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It has now passed through the zero line. That's why I say it isn't as bad as it should be because we easily could have dropped a thousand points today. We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays itself out. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are moving down and still have room to go. We are in a positive seasonal time period but that won't matter if falling through the zero line on the summation index takes charge. We've now closed below the 50 day moving average on the S&P. I'll be on the sidelines and in no hurry to buy for now. Gold fell a dozen on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU and GDX ended little changed on light volume. That's a plus considering there was a drop in gold. My GDX January calls remain solid losers. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but didn't finish as high as it started out. The short term indicators here remain oversold so there is plenty of room to move higher on the VIX. If that occurs we'll see the kind of drop that passing through the zero line represents. If not we may move sideways for a while before the next rally begins. I'm leaning towards the latter because today really could have been a heavily down session but it wasn't. It was just a negative day. Europe and Asia were lower as selling takes over around the world. We'll keep an eye on what happens tonight and see how things go here tomorrow.

It appears that the Dow played catch up with the other major averages today as it got slammed 532 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to hold on to the zero line. The McClellan oscillator again gave a signal yesterday for a big move and we got it today. However it was a mixed picture as the NASDAQ was only slightly lower as the Dow was the under performer. The S&P 500 did manage to close above its 50 day moving average but the short term indicators are turning lower. Perhaps the Santa Claus rally will begin next week. Gold was flat on the session after being higher early on. The US dollar was up and interest rates remained steady. The XAU and GDX also finished little changed after being higher early in the day. My GDX January calls remain solid losers. Will have to think about selling them next week or maybe before the beginning of the new year unless we see some more upside for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and remains above the 20 level. Volatility has been the constant lately. My thinking is that things will slow down next week with the holidays arrival. However it seems the market is still trying to make up its mind on where to go. Positive seasonality is in play. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there. Europe and Asia were lower to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We didn't get any upside follow through to yesterdays gains as the Dow fell 29 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn around and remains close to the zero line. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ getting the worst of it. The S&P 500 dropped but is still short term overbought. Not exactly sure what's going on here but it all could be December expiration related. Most major players will take care of business by the end of tomorrow as we've got the holidays right around the corner. I'm still of the belief that higher prices are in the near future and that the Santa Claus rally will come to pass. Gold got a bounce today as the futures gained over $30. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had a slight decline. The XAU jumped 6 1/8, while GDX gained 1 1/2. Volume was good. It looks like yesterday put in a temporary bottom for gold and the gold shares. I did place an overnight order for the GDX January calls again at a lower strike price. It didn't get filled and I canceled it in the morning. My current GDX January calls are still big losers just not as much as before. There's still five weeks to go in this trade but I doubt the gold shares will move enough to turn this trade around. But who knows? It would take a lot more days like today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back above the 20 level with today price movement. It also still remains short term oversold. Each passing day seems to give a different signal as to the market going higher or lower. I still think that the zero line will hold on the summation index and stocks will begin to turn higher on a steady basis from here. The alternative scenario would be a collapse from here and that doesn't seem probable during this usually bullish time of the year. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes.

The Fed spoke and the market did whatever it felt like and the Dow climbed 374 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but will be trying to turn back up. It should be successful as nobody wants to see the market fall apart for the holidays. Increased tapering and increased chances of rate hikes from the Fed did not lead to selling. It was already in the market. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and we're going to see new all time highs as we are practically there. Other indices will follow. A couple of days left before expiration and we'll see where we go. Gold was lower for much of the session but then turned around and the futures were up a few bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved slightly higher. Not at all what you'd expect with a tighter Fed. The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume was heavy here as it appears that the gold stocks may have put in a bottom here. They finished well up form the lows of teh day. Of course that won't save my GDX January calls as they rmeain solid losers. GDX is now pretty far from its 50 day moving average and we could see a rally back to that. Won't be enough to help my trade though. Perhaps I'll try the January calls again at a lower strike price. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned back down is is below the 20 level again. It remains short term oversold. I haven't been able to figure this indicator out lately but as long as it remains oversold the path of least resistance for stocks will be up. We're getting close to Santa Claus rally time also. We'll be looking for higher prices to end the week as the market has rallied on what should be considered bad news. The zero line on the summation index should hold up this time around. Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Another downer ahead of the Fed as the Dow fell 106 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. It is back to heading towards the zero line which would mean a collapse. My guess is that the market will do whatever it has to in order to avoid that. The overall market was again weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. Inflation data came in higher than expected. Despite the two day decline, the S&P 500 is still short term overbought. Not sure what to expect tomorrow. The market did close well off of the lows so perhaps we'll turn things around tomorrow. Gold fell over $15 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates had a slight gain. The XAU lost 1 7/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. Gold dropping with inflation rising was not the outcome that I expected when I took on the current GDX call trade. It is the opposite of the past relationship. GDX is oversold and staying that way which implies more downside to come here. My January calls are on the way to the graveyard. It is just a matter of how much the loss will be. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and is back comfortably over the 20 level. It remains short term oversold despite the rise. If these short term indicators start to move back up we are going to see quite a drop in the stock market. I'm not saying that it is going to occur but with the summation index also in the danger zone again you cannot ignore the possibility. It would seem to be unexpected but not for those paying attention. Perhaps the Fed will have something to say that will turn stocks back up. We'll see. Europe and Asia were down overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

We got a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two days and we got it today as the Dow fell 320 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to roll over. The NASDAQ led the way down and that isn't a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the major averages are starting to roll over. If this continues it won't be good for stocks. Waiting on the Fed announcement for Wednesday but many are saying it's already in the market. We'll still to the technicals and the S&P 500 is short term overbought on some of them. Probably too late for the SPY December puts if you wanted to try them but who knows? Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar rose while interest rates dropped. Both the XAU and GDX finished little changed on the day. Volume was average. My GDX January calls continue to lose ground and if we don't see some gains here this week I will be taking the loss and moving on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back above the 20 level today. It also closed above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Still short term oversold here. This indicator has been tough to figure out lately but it has shown that volatility is here to stay for a while. Not exactly sure where the market goes from here now as a case can be made either way. I'll probably stay on the sidelines and wait to see what the Fed has to say on Wednesday. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to start the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Inflation data was high but came in where expected and the Dow rallied 216 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is now moving sideways. Most of the major stock averages were up today. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. It is short term overbought now but not completely so. I am still thinking about the SPY December puts ahead of the Fed next week. However we'll have to see how the market moves before Wednesday. I did not think that we would see new highs again this year when the recent decline started. So perhaps the sidelines would be a better spot for me with regards to the SPY. We'll see. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures today but did come off of its highs. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX fell around 20 cents. Volume remains very light for the gold shares. There is no interest here. My GDX January calls continue to slowly lose ground as this trade has not worked out as planned. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way. Once again gold itself was up and the gold shares did not follow. That's a negative. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below the 20 level. It is resting on its 200 day moving average. Short term oversold but it could stay that way if the rally continues. It is implying higher stock prices going forward as it appears that we are in the midst of a December rally. A bit early for the Santa Claus rally but you cannot ignore that prices are moving up. I'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend while I try and decide what action to take next week. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Just waiting on tomorrows inflation data as the Dow finished basically unchanged on the session. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative and the volume was light. The summation index has turned back up but may start tracking sideways. The overall market sold off though with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. I did place an overnight order for the SPY December puts but it wasn't filled and I canceled it in the morning. I still like this idea but now perhaps will wait until before the Fed announcement next Wednesday. Running out of time though as there's only six days left in the December option cycle. I also may just sit this one out since I'm already involved in the GDX call trade. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to roll over. If that does occur we'll be looking at lower prices. Gold dropped around ten bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU fell 3 2/3, while GDX lost over 3/4. Volume was average. My GDX January calls are now solid losers and it may be time to think about just getting out of this trade. I'll see how gold reacts to the inflation data and take it from there. There's still time for the trade to work out but unless we see a quick turnaround this trade will be declared dead. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today as the 20 level has provided a floor for now. This was another reason to attempt the SPY puts because it implies that volatility is about to go up again. We'll see if that actually happens. So the market is again at an interesting juncture. Tomorrow sould tell us something about where we are going. Perhaps a retest of the recent lows? Europe was lower and Asia generally higher in last nights trade. We'll see how the market reacts to the latest inflation data tomorrow.

Still moving higher as the Dow gained 35 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index has turned around. The NASDAQ was the outperformer today and that is a plus. The S&P 500 is near a new all time high. My idea for getting the SPY December puts ahead of the inflation number on Friday may be put on hold. I had expected that the highs for the year had already been made but it looks like that thought was wrong. The short term technical indicators for the S&P have turned higher and are not yet overbought. I'll reconsider that trade idea tonight before deciding what to do. Gold finished basically flat on the session. The US dollar was lower as interest rates continued to climb. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on extremely light volume. No interest in the gold shares but at least they're not moving down. My GDX January calls remain at a loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped to 20 but remains above both its 50 and 200 day moving average. So this indicator is at the moment of truth. It either contiues to drop and the rally lives on or it turns back up and the selling resumes. We should know by the end of the week what is going to happen. I can't say I'm leaning in either dorection at this point but I'll go over things again later tonight. The market has had quite a bounce and it did save the summation index from going through the zero line. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Stock market continued higher today as the Dow soared 492 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning around before the zero line. That is significant as it implies that the worst is over for now. The market is doing what it has to to fend off a collapse. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that is a plus. There was no news to use as an excuse for the rally. The market is moving on its own as it always does. Many indices had a gap up at the open. I'm still considering the SPY December puts ahead of the inflation report on Friday but we'd have to continue higher for the next couple of sessions. At this rate it's possible. Gold was up a few bucks today. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates continued to move up. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX added almsot 1/4. Volume was very light as there is really no interest to own the gold shares here. My GDX January calls lost more ground today despite the slight gain and that is a negative. Premium was being taken out of these options as they are out of the money and the underlying asset is going nowhere fast. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped again today but still remains above the inportant level of 20. Another day like today would take care of that. Not sure what to think here as the VIX still remains above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. We'll just have to wait and see what happens from here. It does however seem like the recent decline has ended. Will we now be heading on to new all time highs? The S&P 500 is almost there. Europe and Asia had huge rallies overnight. It seems like we've gone from fear to greed in record time. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow soared today as the most watched index gained 647 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading down but today could be the beginning on an attempt to turn this thing around. The summation index is getting close to the zero line and if the market doesn't hold up here we'll see a collapse. I'm not sure what's exactly in store going forward because we've seen some indexes really drop while the S&P 500 hasn't even had a 5% correction here. The Dow outperformed both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 today. If we somehow remain positive going into Friday, I'll try the SPY December puts. Otherwise I'll have to stay on the sidelines because things really could still go either way. Gold was off a few bucks today on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates rose. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. Gold down and the gold shares up is a positive but the lack of volume makes it suspect. My GDX January calls are still at a loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and the short term indicators here have rolled over. Normally that would imply higher prices in the near term but this hasn't been the case lately. The VIX is still far above the 20 level so I'd expect the volatility to continue. We'll see if we can get a more than one day advance. Not much data out this week but there will be inflation news on Friday. Ideally I'd like to own some of the SPY puts ahead of that. So we'll see how things go from here before the end of the week. As always the market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans. Europe rallied to start the week while Asia was lower. We'll see if there is any follow through buying tomorrow.

The jobs report was weaker than expected but the Dow only dropped 60 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That is not a positive. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Only a final hour rally prevented the day from being even worse. That holds off the bears for now but they are in control. The S&P is clinging to its 50 day moving average but I'm not sure that it is going to hold. Still 2 weeks left in the December option cycle. Gold bounced today with the futures up over $20. The US dollar finished little changed but interest rates fell. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. Gold up and the gold shares barely moving is not a positive for the bulls here. GDX remains short term oversold. My January calls here are still showing a loss but not as much as yesterday. I still think that this trade will work itself out and show a profit. Plenty of time left here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and remains short term overbought. The VIX reading is over 30 now and volatility should be with us for a while. It works both ways though as we've seen this week. My guess is that it will be pretty crazy when the Fed meets in a week and a half. Again, if we do get short term overbought before that, I'd like to try the SPY December puts. However at the rate the market is going here, we won't get the chance. Volume has picked up considerably to the downside and that fact cannot be ignored. If things don't hold up here soon a collapse is possible with the summation index close to the zero line. Lots of things to consider while going over the charts this weekend. Volatility does create opportunity. Europe was lower and Asia generally higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An oversold bounce back today as the Dow rose 617 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. It is a volatile period right now for stocks, with big moves in both directions on a daily basis. The Dow was the strongest performer of the big 3 today. We're still oversold on the S&P 500 even with todays gains. The jobs report will be out tomorrow and that should be the catalyst for more price movement. I'd still be cautious here even with todays gains. Gold continues to drop as the futures lost $15. Interest rates were slightly higher along with the US dollar. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume. I did go ahead and purchase some more of the GDX January calls and that trade is showing a small loss. GDX is both short and medium term oversold. Technically now is the time that makes the most sense to get long. Overall the trade is losing money but there's seven weeks to go and my thinking is that we'll see the gold shares head up from here. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits the rise in prices. Still short term overbought on the VIX and well above the 20 level. Lot's of time left in the December option cycle so I will hope to see a better rise in price in order to try the SPY December puts. Perhaps during expiration week but let's not ahead of ourselves. Europe was lower and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what the employment report has to say and close out a volatile trading week tomorrow.

Now it's starting to get a little bit crazy out there as we had a one day reversal to the downside today. The Dow lost 462 points on heavy volume again. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is really moving down. Oversold to extremes on the McClellan oscillator and yet we are still moving down. Not sure how long this will continue but lower is the idea here. Things are oversold and there will be opportunities. My guess is that we've seen the highs in the market for a while. The easy money is going to dry up and what's left to move things after that? The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average and is already short term oversold. It might be time to just get out of the way. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures but came off of its best levels. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates slightly lower. The XAU lost 4 1/4, while GDX shed almost a point as the gold stocks followed the general market down. Volume was good. I did place an order for some more of the GDX January calls to lower my average price but the order wasn't filled despite the price hitting the bid. I may try again tomorrow but this would break a pretty solid rule of not to put more money into a losing trade. GDX is now oversold both short and medium term. We are also in a market environment that is out of control to the downside for stocks. It creates opportunities. Whether or not GDX is one of them will only be known after the fact. I'll have to think it over more tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued to climb, remains overbought and it's anybodies guess where it goes next. The market has reached a free fall mode with volatility the main theme. And there's still plenty of time in the December option cycle to trade. Hold on to your hats as the summation index is approaching the zero line and that would move it into the crash zone. Not there yet and I would not expect it to happen but it could. Perhaps the sidelines would not be a bad place for now. Asia and Europe were higher last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.