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Wednesday, February 16, 2022

A mixed bag type of session as the market tried to figure out where it wants to go. The Dow fell 54 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive though. The summation index is tracking sideways. Retail sales were better than expected but the market sold off. The Fed minutes gave things a boost later in the day. The Dow and NASDAQ finished in the red, with the S&P 500 showing a small gain. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. So we could go either way here but I do think the market will head higher into option expiration. That's a guess as usual. Gold was up $15 on the futures as the rally continues. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX climbed another point. Volume remains good here. Barrick Gold, the second largest gold producer, announced a billion dollar buyback today. Three days before the February option expiration. Coincidence? I'll let you decide. Short term overbought for GDX and I was looking at the February puts here for a short term trade. But the risk is plenty with only two days left. The better trade is probably waiting for a pullback in GDX to try the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but still above the important 20 level. The technicals here are also mid-range. Really no point in guessing here, I'll just try and wait for a valid signal either way. The down trend line for the S&P 500 is still in charge. We've got a long weekend ahead with the Presidents holiday on Monday. So patience is advised for now. Europe was lower and Asia higher in last evenings trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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