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Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Stock markets continued lower today as the Dow fell 464 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. Oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. Todays price action takes us through the neckline of the head and shoulders top. Things would have to turn around immediately to save us from a pretty nasty drop from these levels. When a market is oversold and stays that way it always means trouble. We should have at least seen some kind of bounce recently but it hasn't happened. 3800 or lower is the measuring objective of the head and shoulders. The retest of Januarys lows is about to fail. Gold was up around five bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX rose almost 2/3. Volume was average. The gold shares continue to attract money despite being overbought. I'm still looking at the GDX March calls but cannot bring myself to buy them when they are so overbought. Still remaining patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today as yesterdays black candlestick on the daily chart did not turn things around. Almost completely short term overbought here. The VIX closed above the 30 level as volatility is here to stay. We also have the summation index in negative territory and moving lower. Interesting times indeed. We'll need to see some kind of market stabalization tomorrow or things will get ugly to the downside fast. With the current geo-political problems and the prospect of higher interest rates it will be tough for the market to sustain anything to the upside. Probably the most we can hope for is not an all out collapse near term. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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