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Monday, February 14, 2022

The market is trying to figure out what to do here as the Dow fell 172 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to move lower. The Dow was the underperformer today. The S&P remains below its 200 day moving average but the short term indicators are trying to turn back up here. Inflation data out tomorrow will be the primary market mover. 4 days to go in the February option cycle and I'm leaning towards maybe trying the SPY calls. Gold continued its run higher as the futures gained thirty dollars. The US dollar was up, joining in the flight to safety trade. Bonds however did not take part as interest rates rose. The XAU added 2 1/4, while GDX was up 2/3. Volume was good. Money is finding a home in gold but we are now short term overbought. We will have to wait for GDX to get back to oversold before trying the calls here again. This a move that we missed after trying the calls in the January option cycle. I am a believer here now though and will not hesitate to try the calls when the time appears to be right. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up above 30 again today. The short term indicators continue to move higher and imply more selling. However the daily candlestick chart here indicates that a turnaround is possible right away. I'm not sure exactly what to think but if we have conflicting technicals it's better to wait until the majority line up one way or the other. Probably the prudent thing to do here is let the February option cycle pass and get ready for March. I sold the SPY February puts too early and missed the GDX calls for this month. Perhaps the sidelines is where I'll stay for now. But we'll see. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow.

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