Friday, February 18, 2022
The Dow fell 232 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold but not completely so. We'll try and remain patient and wait for prices to get back to the down trend line that has been in place since the beginning of January. There are also potential head and shoulders patterns on some of the major stock index daily charts. The problem there is when everybody sees the same thing, it usually doesn't happen. Gold treaded water today after being lower early on. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU was off 1 3/8, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average. Remaining short term overbought for GDX. GDX is due to take a break and we'll wait for that before trying the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today despite a down market. That doesn't fit the normal pattern. Not sure what to make of it. Still above the 20 level on the VIX so volatilty in in the forefront. The S&P 500 closed the week below its 200 day moving average. The weekly chart has price almost at the lower Bollinger band. The indicators here are oversold but have room to move lower. Monday is a holiday in the US. Waiting for Russia to invade the Ukraine seems to be roiling the markets. I don't expect that to happen but who knows? The market is also hostage to higher interest rates and inflation for now. We recognize that money is flowing into gold and will try and take advantage of that situation. We also see that the game has changed as stock market rallies are now for selling. I'll try to keep these things in mind going forward. An extra day of rest this weekend and it is welcomed. Plenty of work to do as usual. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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