Monday, February 07, 2022
Another back and forth session to begin the week as the Dow was up a point on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. It looked like we would have solid gains for the indexes but the market tanked in the final hour. That's been the pattern lately. I was hoping for some strength before the inflation data on Thursday in order to try the SPY February puts. Probably won't happen. Staying patient for now. Gold was up almost $15 on the futures. Both the US dollar and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained 4 1/4, while GDX was up 7/8. Volume was average. Looks like I'm too late for the GDX February calls. I do think that the gold shares will move higher into the option expiration at the end of next week. If the overall market decides to sell off and take the gold shares with it perhaps there will be a chance to try this trade. Otherwise I'll have to sit on the sidelines for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and has gotten short term oversold. The 50 day moving average has provided resistance for the VIX to move lower so far. It seems to me the next move for the VIX would be higher which would coincide with another market drop. Just a guess on my part. For now I'll wait and see if the S&P can make it back to the down trend line before Thursday. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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