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Thursday, February 17, 2022

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 622 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. More geo-political tensions as the Ukraine situation continues to be in the headlines. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is negative. The S&P 500 is back below its 200 day moving average and the short term indicators have rolled back over. I had thought we'd see some gains going into tomorrows expiration but that guess was wrong. We'll stick with the technicals when it comes to trading. Long weekend ahead and I don't expect anybody to be buying now ahead of it. I'll remain on the sidelines for now. Gold is moving straight up on the prospect of war. Getting ahead of itself in my humble opinion but you cannot argue with price. We hit $1900 today as the futures gained thirty bucks. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates dropped. The XAU soared 4 points, while GDX was up 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX is now pretty far away from its 50 day moving average and also short term overbought. That doesn't mean that it won't go higher but we'll wait for some type of pullback before thinking about the calls here. There is a longer term down trend line at the 36 level that should stop things if we get there. Money is definately moving into gold and the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around today and if it continues we'll see lower stock prices near term. There is room on the short term indicators to move up and we are not overbought here yet. Down trend lines continue to rule the daily stock index charts. Perhaps we're on our way to retest the recent lows in the S&P. We'll have to wait and see if they hold. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

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