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Tuesday, February 01, 2022

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 273 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has stopped going down. It is only a matter of time before it starts to move higher. The Dow was the leader today but the 3 major indices had nice gains. The short term indicators for the S&P are moving up. We now have a down trend line there that comes in at around 4600. That would be the spot to try the SPY February puts. If we get there before Friday, that will most likely be the next trade. Will we just keep moving up to new all time highs? I don't think so but I've been quite wrong before. Gold was up five bucks today. The US dollar continued lower and interest rates were a touch higher. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. I'm still considering the GDX February calls but would like to see a trip back down to the 29 level. Probably won't happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is heading lower and closed at its 50 day moving average. Not yet short term oversold here. Still above 20 though. If we can get below there I'll have more confidence in the rally. The VIX has been correct in projecting higher near term stock prices. It also helped that the market was extremely oversold. But the question is where do we go from here? My guess is that the jobs report on Friday has the potential to be a big mover. But we still have two days to go before that. Europe and what was open in Asia were up last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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