Monday, January 31, 2022
More gains for the last trading day in January as the Dow climbed 406 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving down but is trying to turn back up here. It most likely will be successful. The decline has ended for now and has the possibility of being the low for the year. But probably not as there is still most of 2022 left. The NASDAQ led the way with a sharp gain and that's a positive. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are at mid-range. I'm sure we'll see some selling in the coming days but the 4200 level should hold for now on the S&P. The worst of the selling is over as we reached some extreme oversold levels for stocks. Again, that doesn't mean that we'll move straight up to new all time highs. Most likely sideways until the next leg either way is the likely scenario. If we get to short term overbought for the S&P, I'll be tempted to try the SPY February puts. Gold bounced back today as the futures rose a dozen. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained almost 4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was lighter than its been but not bad. I did have an order in for the GDX February calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. This looks like another missed trade but we'll have to see how the rest of the week goes. If we see some weakness in the coming sessions for the gold shares I'll give this trade a try. Might simply be wishful thinking on my part though as we are moving up from short term oversold on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is moving lower and still implies more rally to come in the near term. We're still above the 50 day moving average here and well above the 20 level. The short term indicators for the VIX are moving down and are at mid-range. More positive action for stocks seems to be in the cards according to the VIX and that would fit with the summation index turning back up from a very low and negative reading. As we move forward the market action should tell us whether what we just witnessed was simply a correction or the beginning of a bear market. We'll know as time goes on. Europe was higher along with what was open in Asia overnight. Some Asian markets are closed for the Chinese new year. We'll keep an eye on the evenings headlines.
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