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Monday, January 03, 2022

The New Year begins with a nice move to the upside as the Dow gained 246 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The Dow closed at a new all time high. Other indices to follow as the week rolls on. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high as well. Still short term overbought here and staying that way. That is a recipe for a rally and today probably starts the next leg up. The signal from the McClellan oscillator came through this time around. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Money still needs a home and is finding one with stocks. Gold got clobbered to begin the new year as the futures dropped about thirty bucks. The US dollar soared along with interest rates. These are tow of the reasons for the drop in the precious metal today. Gold did manage to hang on to the $1800 level for now. The XAU shed 2 3/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was light. My GDX January calls most likely don't have even a chance of getting back to break even. I'll be selling them this week unless we see some kind of dramatic turnaround before the end of the week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and remains extremely oversold. This too is a condition that supports the rally in stocks. The VIX has been oversold since the beginning of December. Not sure how much longer it can go. Well below the 20 level here and beneath both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Some foreign markets were closed for holiday today so price action around the world was muted. Europe was generally higher and Asia mixed. We'll look for some upside follow through tomorrow.

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