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Tuesday, January 18, 2022

A decidedly down day to start the week as the Dow fell 543 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. The NASDAQ again led the way south and that is not a good sign. The S&P 500 has just moved into short term oversold territory. The market is adjusting to the fact that there will be less liquidity. In other words there won't be as much money sloshing around to chase stocks. How long the selling lasts is anyones guess but the weekly indicators are not yet oversold. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures but held up rather well despite the negative backdrop. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off about 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light as it has been to the downside in the past 3 days here. I did place an open order for the GDX February calls although GDX is not yet short term oversold. Silver had an impressive day to the upside and gold did not drop much as it appears the safe haven factor may be coming into play. It will take more of a drop in GDX to get this order filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped above the 20 level today and the indicators are heading north. We are touching the upper Bollinger band here so perhaps things will turn around tomorrow. Or not. Support for many of the smaller stock indexes has been broken, with a trip to the 200 day moving averages in range. It is expiration week though and I would expect to see buying at some point. But it appears that the tide has turned for equities and rallies will be sold. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of China. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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