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Friday, January 14, 2022

A mixed bag for sure today as the Dow fell 202 points to close out the week. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still drifting higher. The Dow did come up from the lows of the session as it was down 450 at one stage of the day. Retail sales were weaker than expected and that was one excuse for the decline. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains for the day. The S&P had a one day reversal to the upside as it opened lower and closed higher. It is doing its best to try and hang on here but it's now down below the 50 day moving average. We also have tops beneath tops on the daily chart here which has a down trend line in place. Perhaps if we make it back to that line we can try the SPY puts. Or maybe the line will be taken out and we'll head for new all time highs. I'm more of a believer of the former. Gold was off 5 bucks today. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. None of that fits with a weaker retail sales numbers but the market goes where it wants. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was light again to the downside. I am trying to remain patient here but I would certainly like to try the GDX February calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX reversed back lower today and closed below the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are mid-range. Not getting a good idea of what this indicator is trying to tell us now. Maybe we'll see the usual expiration week upside bias coming up. I certainly don't know and will remain on the sidelines most likely. It's a long holiday weekend on tap with plenty of work to do regarding what's going on here. I'll be going over the charts as usual to try and come up with some kind of game plan going forward. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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