Wednesday, January 19, 2022
Continuing lower as the Dow tried to hold on today only to drop by 339 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We did see some buying today but in the final hour sellers arrived and took control. The NASDAQ still remains the downside leader. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. I'd expect at least some kind of bounce before the end of the week. However with the summation index moving down the path of least resistance is lower. Rallies can be sold as the easy money is in the process of being removed. Unfortunately the odds now increase that things will get ugly. Hopefully we'll get a chance at the SPY February puts in the weeks to come. Gold took off to the upside today as the safe haven play is back. The gold futures jumped $30. Bot the US dollar and interest rates were a bit lower. The gold shares exploded to the upside. The XAU gained 9 1/3, while GDX rose 2 1/4. Volume was very heavy which confirms that this move is for real. I canceled the open order that I had for the GDX February calls and replaced it with another one in hopes of eventually getting filled. GDX is short term overbought but I believe this is a move worth chasing. I am definately late though. I do think that trying the February calls here is worth the risk. The markets are in the process of change and I think that gold will stand to benefit at least in the short term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved higher and is short term overbought. It usually doesn't stay that way for long so I'm expecting some kind of upside for the market before the end of this week. Not the beginning of a rally mind you, just something to relieve the selling pressure. Make no mistake, the trend is now down until further notice. Europe had a slight gain and Asia was lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the evenings developments.
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