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Thursday, January 27, 2022

Try and try again to bounce but I guess not yet as the Dow fell 7 points on the now normal heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. GDP came in better than expected. An early rally for the S&P 500 turned around and then into a loss for the session. It's a one day reversal to the downside. Still short and medium term oversold and staying that way. This is a rare condition but so is crossing the zero line on the summation index. So the usual market behavior doesn't apply. This too shall pass and we'll see a rally of some sorts sooner or later. The options premiums for the SPY are so inflated now that it just doesn't make sense to try and trade there at the moment. Gold got clobbered again as the futures lost another $30 to close below $1800. The US dollar was up and interest rates slipped a bit on a flight to safety. The XAU fell 3 2/3, while GDX lost almost a point. Volume was good again to the downside. Another down day here will get us to short term oversold for the gold shares. The fundamentals here are not good as a rising dollar along with higher interest rates coming puts a lid on any upside for gold. What used to be the normal buy gold when inflation shows up hasn't worked yet this time around. That said, if the market keeps dropping and the gold shares go with it I'll probably try the GDX February calls again at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with a market that fell. That doesn't fit the usual relationship. The NASDAQ led things lower again today and that's not a plus. The move lower for the S&P that began at the beginning of the month is taking the shape of a five wave down scenario. It appears that all there is left to do is take the fifth and final wave lower. If that occurs we'll head back to the 4200 level on the S&P or maybe a bit lower. That would also complete the retest of Mondays lows. That's my prognosis for where we'll be going in the next few days. However we are strongly way overdue for at least an upside day. That could happen first. Europe was higher and Asia lower last night. Some inflation data due out here tomorrow morning. We'll close out a wild week on Wall street tomorrow.

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