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Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Another day of bouncing around with the Fed as the Dow fell 129 points on the continued above average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. Nothing unexpected or earth shattering from the Fed but we did sell off from nice early gains when chairman Powell spoke to the press. It wasn't the worst of times as the NASDAQ eeked out a small gain. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold but I do think that at least a temporary bottom was put in place on Monday. We've made it through the zero line on the summation index so perhaps the worst is behind us. But we don't exactly know that for sure just yet. We have bounced from Mondays lows but a retest may be in order. Being nimble is key here but I do not expect any kind of sustained rally that would take us back up to where the decline began. I could be wrong. Gold got clobbered as higher interest rates dampen the appeal for the precious metal. The gold futures shed $35. Interest rates went higher along with the US dollar. The XAU lost 4 points while GDX dropped a buck. Volume was good to the downside. I do still like the GDX calls going forward but will wait for them to get short term oversold. Might take a few more days of downside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX perked up today and remains short term overbought. It is certainly out of the ordinary for the VIX to remain overbought for an extended period of time. That is why there is still a chance that we could see another swift drop for stocks in the near future. Combined with the weakness in the summation index, the market is not out of the woods yet. Stocks also remain oversold on a short and medium term basis but haven't been able to have even a sustained bounce for a session. So caution is still advised. We'll get a look at 4th quarter GDP tomorrow and some wage inflation data on Friday. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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