Friday, January 28, 2022
Finally we got a day where a bounce held as the Dow gained 564 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. We were higher for much of the session but then price exploded to the upside in the final hour and a half. Some of it short covering to be sure. Apple earnings appeared to be the catalyst as perhaps things aren't so bad after all. But let's face it. The extreme oversold condition of the market was not going to last forever. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The summation index is negative which rarely happens and it will have to move back up. However I don't think that we are heading to new all time highs anytime soon. An overdue bounce is what we got today and we'll see how things go next week. The bulk of the selling for this move down is probably over. Gold was down a few bucks today but did come up from the lows of the session. The US dollar finished little changed while interest rates dropped slightly. The XAU fell a point, while GDX was off around 1/3. Volume was average. The gold shares came off of their lows as well. I did put in an order for the GDX February calls but wasn't filled. Short term oversold for GDX now so I'm willing to try the calls again here. Most likely will put in another order in the beginning of next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today as it is heading back towards its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have rolled over and implies that we'll see more price gains and less volatility moving forward. The weekly picture looks like it has put in an evening star on the candlestick chart which would fit with the short term indicators. I would be surprised to see the VIX finish next week higher but we'll have to wait and see. As of right now it appears that the S&P 500 isn't going to retest Mondays lows and the fifth wave down I was expecting isn't going to happen. But one day doesn't make a rally and in down trends it isn't unusual for a day like today to spring out of nowhere. We'll know more by the end of next week. Plenty of work to do over the weekend going over the charts. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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