Pageviews past week

Wednesday, January 05, 2022

A bout of selling today as the market did not like the tone from the Fed minutes. We had a nasty sell off with two hours to go today as the Dow fell 392 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The NASDAQ got clobbered by over 3% and led the way lower. I had expected prices to continue to rise and that scenario is now in question. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and imply that there is more selling to go. We just hit a new all time high so I don't think a protracted decline is on tap but what do I know? We'll see if we get any follow through the rest of the week or if this is just a one day wonder. Gold was up early but gave back all the gains and finished about $5 lower on the session. The US dollar was slightly lower but interest rates continued to rise. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume picked up to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over as well. I sold my position in the January GDX calls for a 90% loss. This trade was a loser from the beginning and should have been sold long ago. I also threw good money after bad and that is a cardinal sin in trading. I got what I deserved I suppose but it isn't how I wanted to start the new year. However like any other trade, win or lose it doesn't matter now and you have to move on. If GDX gets back below 29 I might try the calls again. Mentally I'm feeling a bit disappointed as losing trades do nothing to help in the confidence department. Moving forward is what's up next. The VIX climbed today with the rout and that makes perfect sense. This indicator had been extremely oversold for so long there was only one way to go but you could not tell when it would occur. The indicators here have now turned back up with plenty of room to go. The VIX closed above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Didn't close above 20 though but another day like to day will do it. I suppose I'll wait for the reaction to Fridays jobs report and take it from there. We'll see if we get any overseas selling tonight. Europe was higher and Asia mixed in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

No comments: