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Friday, January 21, 2022

Down we go as the decline continues. The Dow fell 450 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower and we are falling apart approaching the zero line. It doesn't appear that it will hold things up this time around. The NASDAQ is still leading the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold, staying that way and just closed below its 200 day moving average. We should have at least seen a bounce at some point this week but it didn't happen. Getting ugly and even if we see a bounce it probably won't hold. Rolling now into the February option cycle. Gold fell over ten bucks today. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates fell on a flight to safety. The XAU dropped almost 4 points, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. My open order for the GDX February calls was filled and it's already a loser. Plenty of time for this trade but with the market in what looks to be freefall, the gold shares are going along for the ride. The stop loss order is in though and another day like today will get me out. Perhaps staying on the sidelines for now is the proper course of conduct. But we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up and is almost at 30. Remaining short term overbought on the indicators. Usually the VIX doesn't stay overbought for long but it seems right now is not a usual time. Buyers have vanished. We've got the Fed next week and perhaps they'll calm the markets. Or not. Going through the zero line on the summation index to the downside is a rare event but always interesting to say the least. We're getting close to being down 10% for the S&P and perhaps that will put a temporary hold on the selling. But that's just a guess. The trend is down. Plenty to ponder over the weekend to try and figure out what to do next week. Europe and Asia sank overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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