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Friday, February 25, 2022

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 834 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to stabalize. I think it will be successful. The head and shoulders top on the S&P 500 has now been negated with the move back above the neckline. A case could be made that we are simply making another down sloping neckline but time will tell on that. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned up. Yesterday was a washout to the downside early on panic selling which marks the end of the decline for now. We will wait for the S&P to get back to the down trend line at around 4480 to try the SPY March puts. At this rate we'll be there in a couple days but I'm not predicting a straight line back up. The market does however go where it wants. Gold was lower again and the futures closed below $1900. The dollar dropped as well and interest rates held steady. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX gained over 1/4. Volume was lighter than lately. I again put in an order for some GDX calls overnight but canceled it during the session. The gold shares followed the market higher today. I am looking out to the April contracts for GDX. I'd prefer to see GDX get to short term oversold before trying this next trade but that may not occur. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned down. Ideally we'd like to see the VIX move down to the 20 level before attempting the SPY puts. But markets rarely cooperate with what we'd like. Stocks looked like they would fall off a cliff this week but the indices held on. There is a lot of bears out there now in the press and that makes me think that a rally is at hand. Not back to new all time highs but perhaps enough to get through that down trend line that has been in effect since January on the S&P. That would change the sentiment back to bullish and set up the next leg lower. It is also possible that the decline has ended for good since we are in negative territory on the summation index and probably about to turn back up. So there is plenty to ponder going forward. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Europe and Asia rallied to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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